The UK and EMU - Difficult Hurdles

Our latest poll suggests that public opinion remains anti EMU, and that there has been no significant pro-EMU dividend from the UK's EU Presidency. The chances of an EMU referendum in the next year or two remain low.

Our latest poll suggests that public opinion remains anti EMU, and that there has been no significant pro-EMU dividend from the UK's EU Presidency. The chances of an EMU referendum in the next year or two remain low.

Apart from aiming to shift public opinion, the government will need to address the tricky long-term problem of managing sterling to an acceptable EMU entry level, and preventing excess currency volatility. There are no easy solutions to this problem.

Base rates are likely to stay on hold at the upcoming monetary meeting. With the economy slowing, the authorities will await clarification of the latest earnings data. Provided that earnings slow next month, as we expect, fears of rate hikes will vanish.

Q If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should be part of a single European currency, how would you vote?

  In Favour (A) Against (B) Don't Know Balance (A-B)
  % % % ± %
Nov 91 33 54 13 -21
Nov 94 33 56 11 -23
Jun 95 29 60 11 -31
May 96 23 60 17 -37
Nov 96 22 64 14 -42
Apr 97 27 54 19 -27
Oct 97 27 54 19 -27
Nov 97 30 52 18 -22
Jan 98 32 52 16 -19
Mar 98 30 54 15 -25
May 98 31 54 16 -23

 

EMU Sentiment Remains Stalled

The UK's EU presidency and the official launch of the single currency do not appear to have created a dividend of a pro-EMU shift in public opinion. Our latest EMU poll suggests that public opinion remains anti EMU, with little change from the March readings. On a simple "How would you vote" question, the balance of opinion against joining EMU has edged down from 25% in March to 23% now. The balance of opinion against EMU entry remains below the October 1997 level (just before the government's statement of intent to join EMU at some stage), but clearly above the 19% low seen in January — in the pro-EMU aftermath of that statement.

Balance of opinion in favour of EMU membership, Oct 97-May 98

  Sample Size Oct 1997 Nov 1997 Jan 1998 Mar 1998 May 1998 Change Oct 97-May 98
    ± % ± % ± % ± % ± % ± %
All 2033 -27 -22 -19 -25 -23 +4
Men 833 -21 -14 -13 -23 -17 +4
Women 1150 -33 -29 -25 -26 -29 +4
Voting Intention
Labour 940 -21 -11 -7 -12 -11 +10
Conservative 438 -53 -51 -52 -56 -48 +5
Liberal Democrat 235 -17 -8 -5 -16 -14 +3
Other/Would not Say 685 -24 -32 -22 -27 -32 -8
Social Class
AB 604 -16 0 +8 -15 -10 +6
C1 342 -25 -25 -23 -18 -14 +11
C2 382 -34 -28 -39 -28 -36 -2
DE 695 -34 -30 -21 -35 -32 +2
Age (Years)
16-24 322 -15 -20 -9 -7 -25 -10
25-34 453 -24 -16 -9 -23 -15 +9
35-44 390 -40 -17 -21 -23 -21 +19
45-54 309 -27 -18 -24 -29 -18 +9
55-64 217 -28 -28 -26 -26 -28 0
65+ 342 -38 -31 -30 -39 -32 +6
Daily Newspaper Readership
"Quality Press" 283 n/a +12 +15 0 2 n/a
"Popular Press" 948 n/a -32 -29 -38 -37 n/a
None 853 n/a -24 -20 -18 -17 n/a

EMU Scepticism Strongest Among Women and Readers of Tabloid Press ...

As before, Labour voters are far less hostile to EMU than Conservatives, although there has been a slight drop in anti-EMU sentiment among the latter group. Women remain more anti EMU than men. Low income groups (the C2 and DE social groups) and readers of the tabloid press are more anti EMU than the high income ABs and readers of the quality press. Among the readers of the high-selling Sun newspaper, the balance against EMU was 47% in May — the most negative rating for any national paper.

... and No Further Gain Among Groups Where EMU Sentiment Rose Last November

Between October and November last year, there was a marked rise in pro-EMU sentiment among Labour voters, the 35-54 year age group and the AB social group. This probably reflected the Government's late-October statement of intent to join EMU and, for these groups, awareness of the UK's relatively high interest rates and pro- EMU opinion among business leaders. However, pro-EMU sentiment among these groups has been little changed — and worsened slightly for the ABs — since then. Sentiment remains volatile in the under 24 age group, perhaps because views are less deeply held, whereas the over 55 year age group remains firmly anti EMU.

Similar Message Allowing for Government's Pro-EMU Line

Our second question, which assesses sentiment in the context of a strong pro-EMU lead from the government, also shows little change from March. This kind of question gave a more accurate guide to the actual vote in the 1975 Common Market referendum than the simple "how will you vote" question (although a longer history is available for the first question as a guide to trends). The gap between the two questions has stayed around 10% in recent surveys, with an above-average gap for Labour voters, women and the under 24 year age group. Nevertheless, even on this measure, sentiment among Labour voters is only marginally pro EMU.

Q If the Government Were to Strongly Urge That Britain Should Be Part of a Single European Currency, How Would You Vote?

  Balance of Opinion
  November 97 January 98 March 98 May 98
  % % % %
In Favour 38 38 36 36
Against 47 47 51 50
Don't Know 15 14 13 14
Balance -9 -9 -15 -14
Balances By Voting Intentions
Labour 6 7 1 2
Conservative -46 -42 -49 -41
Liberal 4 0 -8 -6
Don't Know / Refused -24 -14 -17 -24

 

Poll Readings Suggest Early EMU Referendum Remains Too Risky ...

With such poll ratings, the odds of an EMU referendum in the next year or two remain low. A strong pro-EMU line from the government and hints of an early referendum would risk either (1) losing the referendum; (2) alienating voters by seeming to downplay issues such as health and education — on which Labour has clear and unmet manifesto pledges; or (3) alienating the largely anti-EMU press.

... and Government Likely to Stick With Slow-Burn Strategy ...

As a result, the government is likely to stick with its gradualist strategy, hoping that EMU's launch, and preparations for handling the euro in UK firms, will gradually cut hostility to EMU entry. Nevertheless, unless pro-EMU sentiment rises as the next general election nears, then at some stage the government will have to either try to shift public opinion or to downplay its own EMU aims. Europe consistently ranks as one of the "top five voter concerns", and Labour will probably not want to fight the next election on a pro-EMU platform if public opinion remains anti.

... Although Shift to PR Voting System Would Cut Risks To Labour Of A Pro-EMU Stance

One wild card is the chance of a shift to a proportional representation (PR) voting system, particularly alternate vote (AV), before the next general election . A shift to a full PR system (such as the additional member system) is not possible before the next election because it would need lengthy changes to parliamentary constituencies. However, a shift to AV is possible. Under AV, the Liberals (who are also pro-EMU) would gain more parliamentary seats, at the expense of the Conservatives. By making it harder for the Conservatives to regain power, an AV system would cut downside risks for Labour of facing the next election with a pro-EMU line.

Technical details

The March figures use a sample of 2,033 people aged 16 years and over and the survey was done between 14 and 19 May. A national representative sample was used and the survey was carried out by face-to-face interviews in the respondent's home. The surveys before October 1997 are weighted to be representative of people aged 18 years and over in Great Britain. Note: Sample sizes are for May 1998, but are similar for earlier results. Numbers may not sum because of rounding.

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