Worry About Possible World War III Drops as Regional Conflicts Rage On

With time, the abnormal eventually seems a bit more normal.

The initial spike in fear after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 has subsided a bit, though global majorities are still worried about a possible World War III and feel the world became a more dangerous place over the past year.

Fear about a worldwide conflict drops

New Ipsos polling conducted on behalf of the Halifax Security Forum from Sept. 20 and Oct. 4, 2024, shows the proportion of people across 30 countries who expect in the next 25 years we could see another world conflict involving superpowers similar to World Wars I & II dropped seven percentage points to 63%.

The proportion of people worried about a possible World War III declined year-over-year in all 30 countries, with 14-point drops seen in Chile (63%) and Japan (38%). There were also steep dives in Canada (-eight pts to 67%) and the U.S. (-11 pts to 65%), though it’s important to note this year’s polling was completed just over a month before the U.S. presidential election so the impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in early 2025, has yet to be felt. 

World security in the Trump 2.0 era

At a global level, 21% predicted Trump winning the U.S. presidential election would help the world become more secure while 45% said a win by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris would make the world more secure. Americans were split, with 38% saying a Trump win would make the world more secure vs. 44% who said the same of a Harris win. Meanwhile, America’s Northern neighbors in Canada were significantly more likely to think a Harris win (54%) would make the world more secure vs. 21% who said the same of a Trump victory.

Majority still say the world became more dangerous

And our annual polling conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform finds the feeling that the world is more dangerous once again eased slightly in most countries after reaching a record high in 2022 of 86%, on average across 20 countries*, but is still up from the record low of 75% in 2018. The only country that saw a significant increase year-over-year in the feeling that the world is more dangerous is Indonesia, up eight points to 81%. 

In 2024, the proportion of people in America who feel the world became more dangerous over the past year fell three pts to 81% and five pts in Canada to 82%, in line with than the 30-country average of 80% (-four pts versus 2023).

Nuclear attack worries steady

The proportion saying the threat of a nuclear/biological/chemical attack happening somewhere in the world is real barely budged 72% (+one pts on average across 30 countries) in 2024 after spiking nine points to 74%, on average across 20 countries*, in 2022 on the heels of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the perceived threat of terrorist attacks rose slightly since 2023 (+three pts to 66%), while concern about personal safety/security violations dropped a bit (-2 pts to 61%) and ethnic conflicts in one’s own country stayed at 60%.

And just under half have confidence in their government’s ability to respond to a terrorist attack (+one pt to 49%), violent conflict between ethnic groups (no change at 48%), armed conflict with another country (+one pt to 45%) or nuclear attack (no change at 44%). 
Just over half support Ukraine continuing to fight

Majorities in 27 of 30 countries agree Ukraine should fight on until full victory, including expelling Russia from its territory, with support strongest in Poland (71%) and weakest in Japan (31%). This new question was asked before Trump — who has promised to end the conflict “in 24 hours” though hasn’t said how exactly he would do so — was elected but 53% of people in both Canada and the U.S. support Ukraine fighting on until full victory, just below the 56% global average. 

Meanwhile, 47% (-one pt on average across 30 countries) agree the problems in Ukraine are none of their country’s business and they should not interfere. The proportion who agrees with this dropped a bit in the U.S. (-four pts to 45%) and stayed the same in Canda at 37% over the past year. 

The blame game amid the Middle East conflict

The conflict in the Middle East began long before the October 7 attack in 2023 and is an issue that elicits strong and diverging opinions around the world. At a global level, 44% agree Muslim people are to blame for instability/conflict in the Middle East but that agreement runs the gamut from 76% in South Korea to 26% in New Zealand, while the same proportion (34%) of people in Canada and the U.S. agree. A similar proportion (41%) at a global level agree Jewish people are to blame for instability/conflict in the Middle East, again with those in South Korea (78%) the most likely to agree. Americans (20%) are the least likely to agree Jewish people are to blame, while one-quarter (26%) of Canadians agree.

Support for military spending dips

Given that there’s less fear about another World War breaking out, and there’s been a dip in the proportion that feel the world became more dangerous, it’s no surprise that support for military spending has dropped a bit year-over-year. 

Almost three in five (-five pts to 57%) on average globally agree “given the dangers in the world, my government needs to spend more on my country’s military power,” with those in Poland (-five pts to 79%) the most likely to agree and those in Italy the least likely (-six pts to 35%). Support for an increase in military spending dove nine pts to 55% in Canada and three points in the U.S. to 58%.

At the same time, the proportion that agree that economic power is more important in world affairs than military power declined significantly in all 30 countries year-over-year to a global average of 66% (-11 pts). The biggest drop was seen in Canada (-18 pts to 58%) while the U.S. came in last out of 30 countries with an eight-point drop to 56%.
 

Table of Contents

1. Canada Viewed as Most Positive Leader on World Stage

2. HISF-Ipsos Threat Index Finds Disinformation, Hacking Seen as Top Threats

3. Eight in Ten Believe Democracy, Human Rights and Rule of Law are Universal Values All Nations Can Aspire to

4. Worry About Possible World War III Drops as Regional Conflicts Rage On

 
About the Study

These are the results of a 30-country survey conducted by Ipsos on its Global Advisor online platform and, in India, on its IndiaBus platform, between Friday, September 20 and Friday, October 4, 2024. For this survey, Ipsos interviewed a total of 22,989 adults aged 18 years and older in India, 18-74 in Canada, Malaysia, South Africa, Türkiye, and the United States, 20-74 in Thailand, 21-74 in Indonesia and Singapore, and 16-74 in all other countries. 

The sample consists of approximately 1,000 individuals each in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Spain, and the U.S., and 500 individuals each in Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Thailand, and Türkiye. The sample in India consists of approximately 2,000 individuals, of whom approximately 1,800 were interviewed face-to-face and 200 were interviewed online. 

Samples in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S. can be considered representative of their general adult populations under the age of 75. Samples in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye are more urban, more educated, and/or more affluent than the general population. The survey results for these countries should be viewed as reflecting the views of the more “connected” segment of their population.

India’s sample represents a large subset of its urban population — social economic classes A, B and C in metros and tier 1-3 town classes across all four zones. 

The data is weighted so that the composition of each country’s sample best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the most recent census data. “The Global Country Average” reflects the average result for all the countries and markets in which the survey was conducted. It has not been adjusted to the population size of each country or market and is not intended to suggest a total result.

When percentages do not sum up to 100 or the ‘difference’ appears to be +/-1 percentage point more/less than the actual result, this may be due to rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don't know” or not stated responses.

The precision of Ipsos online polls is calculated using a credibility interval with a poll where N=1,000 being accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and of where N=500 being accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points. For more information on Ipsos' use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.

The publication of these findings abides by local rules and regulations.

*Change for 20-country average is based on the countries which were in all editions of the Ipsos for the Halifax Security Forum report.