Recent Prentice Budget (65%), Former Premier Redford's Antics (59%) are Largest Drivers of Vote Choice

Toronto, ON- The recent budget brought forward by the Prentice Government and the behaviour of former Premier Allison Redford are the largest factors influencing how Albertans will vote next Tuesday, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News and Corus Entertainment.

Helping to explain why the NDP appears to have a solid lead heading into the final days of the campaign, Albertans were asked to identify the degree to which six factors were having an impact on their vote choice. The results clearly demonstrate why the PCs are struggling:

• Two in three (65%) say that the recent budget introduced by the Prentice government is having an impact (35% very big/30% somewhat big) on their vote, while for others the impact is somewhat small (18%), very small (5%), or there is no impact at all (12%). The budget is having the greatest impact among people who are voting for the NDP (82%), suggesting that opposition to the budget is consolidating around the NDP.
• Six in ten (59%) say how former Premier Allison Redford acted and ran things in Alberta is having an impact (39% very big/21% somewhat big) on their vote, while for others the impact is somewhat small (17%), very small (8%), or non-existent (15%). One percent (1%) doesn't know. This impact is stronger for people voting for the Wildrose (70%) and NDP (70%).
• Nearly half (45%) say the crossing of the floor by Wildrose MLAs to the PCs is having an impact on their vote (24% very big/21% somewhat big), while for others the impact is somewhat small (22%), very small (9%), or not at all (24%). This impact is stronger for current Wildrose (57%) and NDP (55%) voters.
• Four in ten (36%) say how the PCs treated the Wildrose MLAs after they crossed the floor is having an impact (15% very big/21% somewhat big) on their vote, while others say the impact is somewhat small (21%), very small (11%) or that there is no impact (30%). Two percent (2%) don't know. The impact is larger for Wildrose (49%) and NDP (46%) voters, and especially low for PC voters (19%).
• One in three (34%) indicate that the outcome of the leaders' debate is impacting (15% very big/20% somewhat big) their vote, while for others the impact is somewhat small (27%), very small (10%) or non-existent (27%). Three percent (3%) don't know. NDP voters (53%) appear most impacted by the debate, more so than Wildrose (31%) and Conservative (23%) voters.
• Two in ten (21%) suggest that public opinion polls are having an impact (8% very big/14% somewhat big) on their vote, and this impact is roughly comparable across supporters of each of the major parties. Others say they impact is somewhat small (25%), very small (11%) or non-existent (41%). One percent (1%) doesn't know how polling impacts their vote.

NDP has Lead on Almost Every Issue...

The NDP popular-vote lead in the home stretch is not only explained by anger at the incumbent PCs over the budget, former Premier Redford and the MLA floor crossing incident, but also by the fact that the NDP seems to lead on almost every key issue of the campaign. The table below outlines the issue, and the proportion of Albertans who believe that each party has the best plan to deal with that issue of importance to Albertans.

The NDP leads all of the other parties on 8 of the 9 issues, with the PCs only leading on the party that best reflects how Alberta wants to be seen on the national and international stage. Even on the taxpayer metric, the NDP leads the Wildrose and the PCs a distant third.

Notley (40%) Trumps Prentice (24%), Jean (21%) as Best Premier...

Given the advantage that the NDP appears to have over the other parties on many of the key issues facing Albertans, it's perhaps not surprising that 40% of Albertans believe that NDP Leader Rachel Notley would make the best Premier of Alberta. In a distant second place is incumbent PC Leader and Premier Jim Prentice (25%), followed closely by Wildrose Alliance Leader Brian Jean (21%). Following in 4th and 5th place, respectively, are Liberal Leader David Swann (9%) and Alberta Party Leader Greg Clark (4%).

Nine in ten (89%) NDP voters think that Ms. Notley would make the best Premier, but PC Voters (82%) and especially Wildrose (67%) voters are less convinced that their own Party leaders (Prentice and Jean, respectively) would make the best Premier of the province.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 27th and 29th, 2015 on behalf of Global News and Corus Entertainment. For this survey, a sample of 761 adults living in Alberta was interviewed. 301 interviews were conducted by live operator telephone interviewing (including 20% cellphone sample), and 460 interviews were online from the Ipsos I-Say panel. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of polls where online interviewing was employed is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Albertan adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Jamie Duncan
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
(403) 969-3235
[email protected]

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