3 takeaways from Ipsos polling for The Rest Is Politics podcast

3 takeaways from an Ipsos poll for The Rest is Politics podcast covering a range of political and social issues.

The author(s)
  • Keiran Pedley Public Affairs
  • Gideon Skinner Public Affairs
  • Cameron Garrett Public Affairs
  • Ben Roff Public Affairs
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Ipsos recently polled the British public for The Rest is Politics podcast, covering a range of topics from the next General Election, Britain’s relationship with the EU, constitutional reform and the future of AI. Here are some of the key takeaways.

Listen to The Rest Is Politics podcast episode featuring Ipsos polling

1: Half think tax rises are likely after the next General Election regardless of who wins – but majority only expect increased spending on public services under Labour

When asked how likely Labour and the Conservatives would be to increase taxes after the next election, around half say likely for both parties. However, whilst 57% expect increases to public spending under Labour, just 3 in 10 (29%) think the Conservatives would do the same.

Ipsos The Rest is Politics Chart: Half expect Labour and the Conservatives to increase taxes. Twice as many expect Labour to increase spending on public spending than the Conservatives  Q: And how likely, if at all, do you think the Labour party / Conservative party would be to do each of the following if they were to win the next election? (% Likely / Not very likely)  Increase spending on public services Labour 57% / 28% Conservatives 29% / 56%  Increase taxes that you personally pay Labour 50% / 34% Conservatives 51% / 34%

When analysing the data by those considering voting for each party and those not an interesting pattern emerges. More than half expect each party to raise taxes regardless of whether they are likely to consider voting for them or not.  Among those likely to consider voting Labour, 79% expect them to increase spending on public services. Among those not likely this falls to 44%. Among those likely to consider voting Conservative 57% expect them to increase spending on public services but among those not likely to consider voting for the party, 77% think they are unlikely to do so.

These figures suggest that if voters go into the next election wanting extra money for public services, they are more likely to expect to get it from Labour.

2. The public are divided about the possible impact of joining the European Union – with little consensus on the way forward

When we ask about the impact of rejoining the EU, a similar pattern emerges to that we’ve seen in the past. 47% think the UK economy would improve if the UK rejoined, twice as many as think it would get worse (23%). However, one in five think it would make no difference (20%). Unsurprisingly, 75% of those that voted Remain think the UK economy would improve compared to just 22% of those voting Leave. The public are less sure of the impact of joining on their standard of living. 38% think it would improve, including 59% of Remain voters but just 16% of Leave voters.

Ipsos Chart The Rest Is Politics Podcast - Nearly half think the UK economy would improve by joining the EU but there is less positivity about the impact on sovereignty and immigration  Q: If the UK were to join the European Union, do you think each of the following would improve or get worse, or would it not make any difference? (% Improve / % Get Worse)  The UK economy 47% / 23% The UK’s standing on the world stage 41% / 20% Your own standard of living 38% / 19% The UK’s ability to control immigration into the country 24% / 31% The UK’s ability to make and enact its own laws 19% / 39%

Of course, the Brexit vote was about more than the economy and the public are much less convinced of the merits of joining the European Union when it comes to immigration and the UK’s ability to make its own laws. On controlling immigration, the public are more likely to think joining would make things worse (31%) rather than better (24%). Similarly, 39% think joining would make the UK’s ability to make its own laws worse, compared to just 19% that say this would be better. For both measures, negative sentiment is much more pronounced amongst Leave voters. 51% of Leavers think the UK’s ability to control immigration would get worse and 62% say the same about the UK’s ability to make and enact its own laws.

When asked about the future, around 4 in 10 (41%) support a referendum on membership in the next 5 years, one in three oppose (33%) and the rest are undecided or neutral. With the public divided on the merits of rejoining and no consensus about the way forward, it is hard to imagine Labour embracing the idea of reopening this subject as a General Election approaches. Though it should be noted from other Ipsos research that a majority think Brexit is having a negative impact on Britain too – so it might not be a topic the Conservatives want to promote at that election either.

3. Support varies for different constitutional reforms – replacing the House of Lords and changing the voting system command the most support of those polled.

When examining support for different reforms being introduced, the only one that commands a majority in favour is replacing the House of Lords with an elected chamber (55%). Almost half (45%), support replacing the current electoral system with one that ‘ensures parties win seats in proportion to the numbers of votes they receive). Just 14% oppose but the rest are neutral or undecided suggesting any future discussion around adopting PR would likely end up more complex than headline figures suggest – especially once specific alternative systems are discussed.

Ipsos Chart for The Rest Is Politics Podcast - The majority of the public support replacing the House of Lords with an elected chamber, while there is opposition towards changing the voting age  Q: To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose each of following reforms being introduced in the UK in the future? (% support / % oppose)  Replacing the House of Lords with a chamber elected by the public 55% / 12% Replacing the First Past the Post electoral system with one that ensures parties win seats  in proportion to the numbers of votes they receive 45% / 14% Introducing a written constitution where the most important laws of the country are written in a single document making them harder to change than ordinary laws 41% / 13% Making it compulsory to vote in UK General elections 37% / 31% Changing the age at which people can vote in UK General Elections from 18 to 16 28% / 46%

The one reform where more oppose than support was votes for 16 year olds at UK General Elections. However, attitudes vary sharply by age. Amongst 18-34s 43% support votes at 16 and 24% oppose but 63% of those aged 55-75 oppose, rising to 78% of those aged 75+.

More detail on the report, including attitudes to AI, can be found in the full report below.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 2,337 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus August 25th to 29th 2023. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of errors.

The author(s)
  • Keiran Pedley Public Affairs
  • Gideon Skinner Public Affairs
  • Cameron Garrett Public Affairs
  • Ben Roff Public Affairs

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