Britons believe a fresh start is more likely under a Labour government than a Conservative one under a new PM

• Public split over whether Labour or the Conservatives will win the next election
• Honesty, understanding Britain’s problems, being in touch with ordinary people, and being a strong and capable leader what Britons are looking for in a PM

New polling from Ipsos, done after Boris Johnson resigned as Prime Minister, suggests Britons are more positive about a Labour government under Keir Starmer than a Conservative one under a new PM on a range of issues. Around half think it is likely that a Labour government would act with integrity (49%, compared with 37% who think it is likely under a new Conservative government under the person they think will replace Boris Johnson as Prime Minister), offer Britain a fresh start (47%, vs 36%) and improve public services (47%, vs 28%).  

A Labour government is also expected to be more likely to be competent and effective (42% vs 34%), have a good team of ministers (43% vs 34%), reduce the cost of living (35% vs 23%), provide strong and stable government (by 43% to 36%), do what’s best for Britain as a whole (by 44% to 38%), reduce regional inequalities or “levelling-up” (by 40% to 27%) and reduce climate change (by 36% to 29%). However, Britons see little difference between the parties when it comes to the prospects for growing the economy (36% Conservative vs. 34% Labour), having the right foreign policy (37% Conservative, 38% Labour) or reducing taxes (35% Conservatives, 34% Labour). 

The research also finds Britons are split about what will happen at the next General Election. Overall, 43% expect a hung parliament and 33% a clear winner, 39% expect the Conservatives to be the biggest party (either a majority (14%) or in a hung parliament (25%)), 37% expect Labour to be the biggest (19% with a majority and 18% the biggest party in a hung parliament).  One in five (20%) are unsure about what will happen.  Six in ten (61%) of Conservative 2019 voters expect the Conservatives to win (37% with a majority), while Labour 2019 voters are slightly more confident that Labour will win at 68% (though the same proportion, 36%, anticipate them winning a majority).

Looking at what makes a good Prime Minister, most Britons say honesty (68%) and understanding the problems facing the country (66%) are the most important traits. Other important characteristics are being in touch with ordinary people (59%), being a strong (56%) and capable (54%) leader and being good in a crisis (54%). Only 15% think it is important for a good PM to have a big personality while around a quarter (26%) believe they should share their values. This is a similar pattern to June, but since then Britons are placing even more emphasis on honesty, understanding Britain’s problems and being in touch with ordinary people.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos in the UK, said:

Potential Conservative leadership challengers do not just need to demonstrate their own personal attributes for the job, and how they will deliver on Britons’ priorities, but will also want to show how they can improve public perceptions of the party as a whole. At this early stage, though, the challenge is that across many metrics Britons think a Labour government is more likely to produce a fresh start, a competent government with integrity, and one that is more likely to deliver improvements on the cost of living, public services and levelling-up.  But Labour itself also has doubts to overcome, and the public is still split over which party is most likely to win the next General Election. To be the Prime Minister who leads the Conservatives into that next election, the contenders can listen to what the public says they want to see in a premier: honesty, understanding Britain’s problems and being in touch with ordinary people, and being a strong and capable leader.

Technical note:

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,000 adults aged 18-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place on the online Omnibus on 7th – 8th July 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.