Decision day looms

Should he or shouldn't he? Tony Blair still seems determined to call the election for 3 May, though he has yet to make any announcement; the public seem decidedly less enthusiastic. Nevertheless, MORI's poll for the Mail on Sunday [FOOT AND MOUTH POLL] suggested that few of those opposed to holding the election on 3 May feel that if the government were to do so it would make them less likely to vote Labour.

For the record, here are the polls published over the last couple of weeks on election timing. (Note that various question wordings were used, although all made explicit reference to the Foot and Mouth outbreak).

* The sharp change between the ICM/BBC poll and the remainder is obvious - amounting to a 23% change over considerably less than a week between that poll and the next.

It may be worth noting that while the other four polls were conventional telephone polls, the ICM poll for BBC On-Line is described as interviewing "via the Internet and by telephone". Although the BBC's site doesn't specify what proportions the mix between telephone and Internet interviews were in, the poll is part of a series, the "BBC News Online 1000", of which earlier polls were entirely based on "a random sample of ... adults [interviewed] via the Internet". This is new and unproven methodology; it is a great pity that the many secondary reports of its findings across the media made no mention that the survey was not conducted by ICM's usual methodology. The Internet has not been used before for political polls in Britain, though Harris Interactive achieved impressive results during last year's US elections; but of course one is inclined to be a little wary until the methodology has also established a track record here. In this case its results are a long way out of line with the four other polls on the same subject, and although it is possible that the course of events did indeed bring about such an abrupt change of opinion between 8-10 March and 13-14 March, it must give rise to pause for thought.

Meanwhile, the voting intention polls so far this month give a mixed message. Gallup in the Telegraph found Labour's support up five points since February, to 55%, their highest in any poll since the MORI/Times poll in November 1999; the month-on-month swing was from the Lib Dems, down 5 on 12%, with the Tories steady on 29%. NOP in the Sunday Times found Labour on 51% and the Tories on 31%, putting the Tories down 2 and Labour up 3 since January. (NOP didn't publish a poll in February). Both these polls, of course, if translated into seats, would imply considerable Labour gains rather than losses.

ICM in the News of the World polled in marginals only on 14-16 March, around the same time as NOP's poll, and found just a 0.1% swing to the Conservatives since 1997 in marginal seats were the Conservatives and Labour were placed first and second. This implies no change in seats for the government, though the other section of the poll found a 9.1% swing from Lib Dem to Labour in Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, suggesting worthwhile gains here for the Tories from the Lib Dems. In MORI's Mail on Sunday poll in Devon, although the sample size was too small to give definitive figures, there were signs of a similar shift. Far from being damaged by foot and mouth, Labour seems to be actually picking up support from the Lib Dems in these areas, even though the only beneficiaries can be the Tories. But perhaps tactical voting will suddenly reassert itself when the election is called and the Lib Dems start explaining the tactical facts of life to the constituents; MORI's survey for the Lib Dems last month [POLITICAL ATTITUDES IN GREAT BRITAIN] found that a substantial proportion of both major parties' supporters might consider switching to the Lib Dems if they thought they could win the seat.

A separate ICM survey in the Guardian, though, found things moving the other way, with the Tories up three on 35%, Labour down three on 44%, and Lib Dems up one on 16%. While Gallup's poll was earlier, the NOP and ICM fieldwork overlapped though ICM's fieldwork ended two days later, so perhaps there has been a swing against Labour in the last few days.

Our poll due in the Times next week may confirm one way or the other; and it is likely to be published before Mr Blair has to finally make up his mind. Watch this space.