Ipsos Political Monitor August 2013: Economic Optimism

Public Sector

Economic optimism has risen for the fifth consecutive month, according to the latest Ipsos Political Monitor, and our Economic Optimism Index stands at its highest since January 2010.

 

Economic optimism has risen for the fifth consecutive month, according to the latest Ipsos Political Monitor, and our Economic Optimism Index stands at its highest since January 2010. Forty-four percent of people expect the economy to improve in the next twelve months, 29% stay the same, and 24% get worse, giving an Economic Optimism Index score of +20 (% improve minus % get worse).

The Ipsos Economic Optimism Index has risen every month since March 2013, when it stood at -30, and only one in five expected the economy to improve. Since then, it has risen consistently to its current three-and-a-half year high:

Ipsos Economic Optimism Index
 March 2013  -30
 April 2013  -19
 May 2013  -1
 June 2013  0
 July 2013  +5
 August 2013  +20
Source: Ipsos

Economic optimism is much higher among men than women (+33 vs +6), and among the middle classes compared to the working classes (+34 among ABC1s vs +1 among C2DEs). It is also higher among the Midlands and the South (+24 and +25 respectively) compared to the North of England (+5).

At the same time, the public are split over which of the Conservative’s George Osborne or Labour’s Ed Balls would make the most capable Chancellor, with the same proportion choosing each (36% for Mr Osborne, 35% Mr Balls). This continues the close-fought race we have seen between the two in recent years. In June Ed Balls had a small three-point lead, but the two have often been neck-and-neck since 2011. At the same time, three in ten answer “neither” or “don’t know”. George Osborne holds the lead among the more optimistic groups: men, older people, and the middle classes. On the other hand, Ed Balls is seen as most capable by women, younger people, and social classes C2DE. Both have clear leads among their own party supporters, but Mr Osborne has a lead among Liberal Democrat and UKIP voters.

(Click the image to enlarge)

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos said:

“The heatwave may have ended but the public’s economic outlook continues to get sunnier. However, they are no closer to deciding which of George Osborne and Ed Balls would get their final vote.”

Technical note: Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 10th – 12th August 2013. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

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