New poll reveals anxieties about Scottish independence
New polling by Ipsos and King’s College , ahead of the Scottish Referendum discussion tonight at Kings College London, shows more people across Britain have anxieties about the prospect of Scottish independence than think it will have a positive impact on economic and cultural issues.
In terms of the economic impact on Scotland’s economy, around a third of Scots think that a ‘Yes’ vote would have a positive impact on the Scottish economy (36%) and on the amount of public money available to spend in Scotland (32%), while only 12% think independence would have a positive effect on the UK economy. Attitudes largely follow the voting intention preferences revealed on 3rd March by Ipsos in our latest opinion poll for Scottish Television. Those intending to vote ‘Yes’ in September believe independence will have positive economic consequences for Scotland while those voting ‘No’ have the opposite view and undecided voters are split on the potential impact.
Predictably, people in England and Wales are less forthright about the economic consequences of Scottish independence with many believing that it will have no impact, though the balance of opinion is that there will be negative effects. However, a third (34%) of people in England and Wales think that Scottish independence will have a positive impact on the amount of public money available in their area, 10-percentage points more than think there would be negative consequences in this regard.
In the event of a ‘No’ vote in September many more people believe that any economic and cultural fallout across the UK is likely to be minimal, though, among those with a view, the balance of opinion is that a ‘No’ vote will have positive consequences.
Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos Scotland, said:
“As we enter the final 200 days before the referendum the campaigns on both sides are gathering pace. Our recent poll has shown that the ‘No’ campaign retains a reasonably healthy lead among Scots and it is therefore natural that concerns about the possible impact of independence outweigh feelings of positivity. While it is voters in Scotland who will decide the constitutional arrangements in the UK, it is important to recognise the views of people in England and Wales, where those anxieties are shared, if to a lesser extent. What we know however is that significant numbers of Scots remain undecided about how they will cast their vote in September and that may if these voters will not yet have begun to engage fully with the issues. It is therefore difficult to predict the outcome with any certainty at this stage.”
Technical Note
- This presents the topline results from Scotland and for England and Wales
- Results are based on:
- a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone in Scotland between 20th and 25th February
- a survey of 1,012 respondents (adults aged 18+) conducted by telephone across GB between 1st and 3rd February
- Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status
- Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories
- Results are based on all respondents (1,001) unless otherwise stated
