Public Opinion And The War

MORI chairman Sir Robert Worcester examines the state of public opinion now that the war against Iraq has begun.

I've been saying "When Tommy goes to war, public opinion will follow" on such television news outlets such as NBC Main Nightly News with Tom Brokaw (three times in the past fortnight), ABC NightLine, on CBC and for ITV (but not invited to appear on BBC TV, which seems to want punch-ups rather than analysis these days).

Sure enough, it has.

Two polls published on Sunday, both with fieldwork just after the troops went in, showed one adult in five has switched from opposition to the war to support over the past fortnight.

ICM, in the News of the World (no fieldwork dates, no sample size, and no precise wording of the questions), found a +21 swing, from a net -24 then to a net +18 now, 55 per cent backing Blair's handling of the war now -- compared with 29 per cent a fortnight ago.

Those who disapproved dropped from 53 per cent to 37 per cent. The poll also is reported as finding that 82 per cent "want Britain and America to see the war through to a successful conclusion".

Yet another internet poll, this time in the Sunday Times, went from -19 to a +20, a swing of +19.5.

YouGov's question asked "Are America and Britain right or wrong to go to war?". It had found earlier that 36 per cent thought it "right", and 56 per cent "wrong", and now (fieldwork March 21-22) found a reverse set of figures, 56 per cent now thinking "right", and 36 per cent "wrong".

Both Labour and Tory Party supporters back the war by two to one, with the majority of Lib Dem supporters still opposed.

Six people in 10 said they watched Blair's address to the nation on Thursday night, and of those, by three to one, 27 per cent to eight per cent, said they were more convinced of the need for war by the broadcast.

Other findings reported in the Sunday Times included reporting that 19 per cent believe it will be a long war, 39 per cent a short war, but with heavy casualties, 31 per cent a sort war with light casualties, and 11 per cent wisely saying they didn't know.

By 45 per cent to 35 per cent those taking part over the internet in the survey thought that the war will make the world a safer place.

Chillingly, a majority of the British public, by nearly two to one, 53 per cent to 27 per cent, predict the US will target other nations believed to pose a threat.

YouGov surveyed 2,116 internet users on line March 21-22.

A different YouGov poll, taken before the attack started for the Daily Telegraph, had already showed an eight point lead in support of the war even then, from a question asking "do you think the United States and Britain are right or wrong to take military action against Iraq (unless Saddam leaves the country)" 50 per cent to 42 per cent.

No doubt YouGov will be updating their figures for the Guardian soon, which also showed a switch to the majority supporting the war even before it began, using yet a different question.

Sir Robert Worcester is Chairman of MORI