Public prefer a Labour majority, but 3 in 10 believe majority of over 100 seats would be bad outcome

• 66% of Britons expect Labour to form the next government. 
• However, 3 in 10 (31%) believe that a Labour majority of 100 seats or more would be a bad outcome for the country. 

Ipsos’ latest General Election campaign tracker finds that 66% of Britons expect the Labour party to form a majority government following the election on 4th July. By contrast, just 13% expect there to be a Conservative majority government. 

4 in 10 (42%) of Britons believe a Labour majority government would be a good outcome for the country, versus 22% for a Conservative majority government. 28% believe a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party would be a good outcome, and 19% believe a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party would be positive. 

Size of the Labour majority 

The public were asked to consider the size of the potential Labour majority: 

When asked whether different outcomes were likely or unlikely, 43% say a Labour majority of up to 50 seats is likely, 43% say a Labour majority of up to 100 seats is likely, 39% say a Labour majority of up to 150 seats is likely, and 37% say a Labour majority of up to 200 seats is likely .

When asked whether think think different outcomes would be good or bad for the country:

• 32% say a Labour majority of up to 50 seats would be good, 28% bad.
• 36% say a Labour majority of 51 to 100 seats would be good 28% bad.
• 36% say a Labour majority of 101 to 150 seats would be good, 31% bad.
• 36% say a Labour majority of 151 to 200 seats would be good, 31% bad.

However, data at the overall level masks increased concern amongst 2019 Conservative voters as the hypothetical size of a Labour majority increases.

Keiran Pedley, Directors of Politics at Ipsos, says of the findings:

With almost two in three 2019 Conservative voters expecting a Labour majority at the upcoming election and this group becoming more concerned the larger the potential Labour majority, it will be interesting to observe whether Conservative campaign messaging around preventing a so-called Labour supermajority is effective at winning some wavering voters around or whether it has the opposite effect and tells some 2019 Conservatives there is either no point in them voting or they might as well vote for Reform UK or someone else.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,049 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 14-17 June 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.