Pulse Check - May 2025
What can we learn from the local elections?
May 2025
Checking the pulse of the nation
The Ipsos Spending Review Briefing
The upcoming Spending Review is a pivotal moment in Labour's first term, one that will shape economic priorities and the direction of public services for years to come. Join us and experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, and the Resolution Foundation, for a thought-provoking webinar. Get a head start before the webinar and check out our recent polling on Reeves' fiscal rules.
Badenoch drops to worst Ipsos favourability score
17% hold a favourable opinion of leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch, while her score of 49% unfavourable is her worst in this series as Conservative party leader. Farage continues to top ratings, with 31% favourable and 50% unfavourable.
Reform UK and Farage most trusted on immigration
Reform UK enjoys the highest level of trust on having the right immigration policies (37%), handling migrant crossings of the English Channel (39%), and making illegal entry more difficult (42%). Conservatives are the least trusted party on these issues.
People are less ‘nimby’ than they think they are
People are more likely to think public opinion leans more towards opposition to the building of more homes in their local area (42% are of this view) than support (26%). However, the opposite is true - 46% support building, 25% oppose it.
What can we learn from the local elections?
The consequences of this month’s local elections, and Reform UK’s remarkable performance, will help define the political narrative for the coming months.
More than 1,600 seats were contested in 23 councils, alongside six mayoral elections and the Runcorn by-election. Among those council seats, ten were won by Reform UK, three by the Liberal Democrats and ten were left with no overall control.
What can we learn from these results?
Ipsos’ large-scale Understanding Society MRP polling can be used to zoom in on these individual councils and uncover what’s motivating voters living there and what is unique about them. This surveyed over 20,000 people in September 2024 and produced estimates for each lower tier authority across the UK.
Here's five key takeaways:
- Councils won by Reform are less likely than average to be satisfied with policing, jobs, their quality of life and community cohesion. They are 10-points below the net UK average on the availability of jobs, 7pts on their quality of life and 4pts on both policing and community cohesion.
- However, not all Reform councils are built on the same foundations. There is variation by region. For example, Kent in the Southeast, is the Reform council most likely to be satisfied with their quality of life, 13 points above the UK average, and some 29-points ahead of Doncaster (the Reform council least likely to be satisfied here and across most other measures). Facing out to the Channel, Kent voters will likely have their own concerns with immigration, but bordering London, it also over indexes on being dissatisfied with housing compared to other Reform won councils (-51 vs. -39). Lincolnshire also stands out as being less pessimistic about their quality of life.
- Meanwhile, councils won by the Liberal Democrats are far more likely to be in line with UK averages – if not a bit more satisfied. It is perhaps unsurprising when you look at where they are – in Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire and Shropshire – that they stand out as being particularly happy with their quality of life (15-points ahead of the net UK average), community cohesion (7-points ahead) and education (5-points ahead).
- This is not just an issue for local councils but reflects dissatisfaction on these issues across post-industrial legacy areas more generally. In former manufacturing and mining areas in the north of England and south Wales, there is a strong feeling among voters that they have been left behind by successive Conservative and Labour governments.
- Lastly, we're seeing low levels of public trust in both the main traditional parties. The British public is slightly more likely to consider Reform UK the main opposition and believe that Nigel Farage is now more likely to become Prime Minister than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. This is as dissatisfaction with the Labour government and Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains high.
As political parties decide how to respond, or even change tack, as a consequence of these local elections, this analysis stresses the importance of improving bread-and-butter public services, local communities and tackling regional inequalities head on.
With thanks to our authors, Cameron Garrett, Alex Bodgan and Sara McHugh for their expert local elections analysis.
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