Research by Ipsos for Barclays identifies potential to unlock capacity in the housing market

New research carried out by Ipsos on behalf of Barclays has uncovered considerable appetite among owner-occupiers in England and Wales to move home, but also several barriers including cost and complexity.

Barclays have used the research to recommend five policies to encourage the market for moving, and specifically, ‘right-sizing’ i.e. moving to a property with fewer bedrooms (sometimes referred to as ‘down-sizing’). 

This is important because previous evidence has found 85% of owner-occupied homes in England and Wales are under-occupied. According to Barclays, this “constricts the availability of larger homes for families and younger buyers, causing a ripple effect throughout the housing market”. By encouraging right-sizing, policymakers could unlock significant capacity, making an important contribution to addressing the UK’s housing crisis alongside additions to housing supply.

The research involved a large survey by Ipsos, initially conducted among adults across Britain before focusing on owner-occupiers in England and Wales. The survey was designed and analysed using Ipsos’ MAPPS framework to secure behavioural insights. A statistical model was generated to segment those ‘under-occupying’ their home as determined by the Bedroom Standard (a classification system used by ONS which considers the number of people - their age and sex - and the bedrooms in a property).

Measuring interest in moving:

• Across Britain, people are satisfied with the size of their homes and the number of bedrooms they have, although renters are relatively less satisfied.
• Half (50%) of owner-occupiers in England and Wales say there are enough suitable homes in their area if they wanted to move.
• More than eight in ten, 85%, say buying or selling a property is always a stressful thing to do.
• A quarter, 27%, would want to move to a home with fewer bedrooms if they did decide to move in the next 2 years.
• Under-occupiers contain a large group of ‘last time buyers’ but more than a third (36%) are aged 45-64-years-old.
• One in ten, 11%, say they are certain, very or fairly likely to want to move to a property with fewer bedrooms in the next 12 months, 13% in the next 1-2 years, 19% in 3-5 years.
• An even higher proportion (49%) agree that ‘I can see the benefits of selling my home and moving to one with fewer bedrooms at some point in the future, but not now’.

Understanding motivations and barriers to moving and right-sizing

• Having a home that requires less maintenance would offer encouragement to owner-occupiers to move. So too does moving to a bigger home with more space (indicating the benefits to other groups of an increase in right-sizing). 
• The main disincentives for owner-occupiers, and under-occupiers among them, are the perceived cost and complexity of moving.
• There are other factors at play. Many under-occupiers don’t recognise their spare bedroom as being spare – for example, while 52% of those who the Standard suggests have two spare bedrooms report this as being the case, 48% don’t.
• Just under two-thirds (64%) of under-occupiers would “only do this [right-size] if I had to, not because I would want to”.
• Similar proportions “feel an emotional attachment to my current home because of happy memories or the effort I’ve put into making it what it is” (61%) and “don’t think doing this would be beneficial for me” (60%).
• These motivational dimensions outstrip any doubts about knowledge and ability or a sense of obligation - only 20% say “I think people should do this because it frees up homes for others”.

Segmenting under-occupation and scoping policy responses

• Ipsos used a statistical model to identify six different types of under-occupiers, including three which were relatively more ‘movable’ - the ‘Family-focused’, ‘Suitability seekers’ and ‘Pragmatic movers’ (who had the highest propensity to right-size).
• Collectively, these account for 41% of under-occupiers. 
• Those ‘Settled forever’, ‘Settled for now’ and ‘Squeezed strivers’ make up the remaining 59%.
• Each segment has different motivations – for example, ‘Pragmatic Movers’, would be more inclined to consider right-sizing if a greater number of suitable properties were available. They are receptive to the full range of possible policies (10 were shown to respondents) including increases to the supply of properties and financial incentives.
• ‘Suitability Seekers’ are relatively more likely to lack confidence than others. Policies orientated towards information and support, and improving the physical accessibility of properties were also relatively more appealing to them.

Read Barclays’ full report here

Technical details
Ipsos conducted a nationally representative online survey of 4,324 adults 18+ in Great Britain during 24th –27th May 2024. Data have been weighted to the known population profile. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. 

A total of 2,206 people were identified as ‘owner-occupiers’ in England and Wales, defined as individuals that contribute directly to the mortgage or are outright owners (fully or partially) of their main residence. 

The ONS Bedroom Standard was used to classify ‘under-occupation’ (as well as ‘over-’ and ‘optimal-’ occupation) - 1,785 met the criteria. The Standard considers one bedroom as optimal for an adult couple, or any adult (aged 21 years or over), or two ‘adolescents’ (aged 10-20) of the same sex, or one adolescent and one child (aged 9 years or under) of the same sex, or two children regardless of their sex.

The Barclays’ report makes use of the Ipsos segmentation, MAPPS framework and population totals (these are estimated values and have been calculated using 2021 Census data findings, combined with survey data). Further details are included in the report.