Scots agree it’s time for a change, but are unsure if Labour can make the changes they want

New polling conducted by Ipsos in Scotland finds that:

• Most people in Scotland think that both Britain and Scotland need a fresh new team of leaders – but are not sure whether Labour can provide it.
• The Scottish public is more likely to think Labour is ready to form the next UK Government than to think it is ready to form the next Scottish Government.
• People in Scotland are more likely to want the UK Government to increase tax and spending on public services than to favour tax cuts if it means less for public services.
• Around half think the Scottish Government is doing a bad job on the NHS, improving living standards for people on low incomes, and education, though views are split as to whether Labour would do a better job.

Is it time for change?

With a general election a certainty at some point in the next 10 months, a majority of people in Scotland would like to see change:

• 87% agree that Britain needs a fresh team of leaders (10 percentage points higher than the 77% of Brits who agreed with this in our March GB-wide poll)
• 68% disagree that the UK Conservative Government deserves to be re-elected
• But a lower proportion – 45% - agree that Labour is ready to form the next UK government
• And only 40% of those who would like to see a fresh team of leaders are confident that Labour can provide that fresh team (52% are not confident).

The Scottish public would also like to see Scotland benefit from a change, with 70% saying Scotland needs a fresh team of leaders. 

• Views of the SNP Scottish Government are less critical than those of the UK Conservative Government. However, more people disagree than agree that they deserve to be re-elected (46% vs. 36%). 
• At the same time, the public remain divided on whether Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government – around a third agree that they are ready, a third disagree, and a third are unsure.
• Fewer Scots agree that Labour is ready to form the next Scottish Government (34%) than agree they are ready to form the next UK Government (45%). 

Unsurprisingly, views are strongly patterned by party support. However, even among those who voted SNP in the 2021 Holyrood elections, 43% agree that Labour is ready to form the next UK Government, though only 24% of those who voted Conservative in that election do. 2021 SNP voters are less likely to agree that Labour are ready to form the next Scottish Government (20%). 

How would a Labour Scottish Government perform?

Across a range of policy areas – managing Scotland’s economy, and improving the NHS, education and living standards – more people say the current SNP Scottish Government has done a bad job than a good job. Around half think it is doing a bad job on improving the NHS (56%), improving living standards for people on low incomes (49%), and improving education in Scotland (48%). As reported in Ipsos Scotland’s previous press release, this was also the case under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership, but views have worsened since Humza Yousaf took over a year ago.

When asked if a Labour Scottish Government would do a better or worse job across each of these areas, a majority are not convinced that they would necessarily improve things. For example, while 32% think Labour would do a better job of improving the NHS in Scotland, 19% think they would do a worse job, 30% think they would make no difference and 17% are not sure.

However, the ‘net’ scores (the proportion who think Labour would do a better job minus the proportion who think they would do a worse job) across the key areas of improving the NHS, improving your own standard of living and improving the education system have all marginally increased compared with August 2023. 

Views on taxation and public spending

With the parties’ plans for tax and public spending likely to feature heavily in political debate ahead of the general election, people in Scotland are more likely to want the UK Government to increase spending on public services even if it means they personally pay more taxes (47%) than to support tax cuts if it means spending less on services (23%). Support for increasing taxes and spending was equally high among 2021 Labour and SNP voters (57% in each case), but lower among 2021 Conservative voters (34%).

Rachel Ormston, Research Director at Ipsos in Scotland, commented: 

These findings show very clear support among the Scottish public for a change of political leadership in Britain – if anything, the sense that it is time for a change is even stronger here than across Britain as a whole. However, it is less clear that the public are convinced Labour represents that change.
The finding that just a third of the Scottish public think the Scottish Government deserves to be re-elected will not make happy reading for the SNP, with criticism of their record on the NHS, for people on low incomes, and on education. At the same time, the fact the public are divided on whether Labour can make a real positive difference means it is not yet certain Labour can rely on maximising their electoral advantage from this appetite for change at the Scottish ballot box.

Technical note

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,040 adults aged 16+ in Scotland. 
• The survey took place online between 15th and 26th March 2024. 
• Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. 
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories. 
• All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.