What can we learn from the Local Elections? Reform won councils less satisfied with policing, jobs, quality of life and community cohesion

The consequences of last week’s local elections, and Reform UK’s remarkable performance, will help define the political narrative for the coming months. 

More than 1,600 seats were contested in 23 councils, alongside six mayoral elections and the Runcorn by-election. Among those council seats, ten were won by Reform UK, three by the Liberal Democrats and ten were left with no overall control. 

What can we learn from these results? Ipsos’ large-scale Understanding Society MRP polling can be used to zoom in on these individual councils and uncover what’s motivating voters living there and what is unique about them. This surveyed over 20,000 people in September 2024 and produced estimates for each lower tier authority across the UK. 

Below we have created averages across the contested councils for people’s satisfaction with a range of public services and different aspects of everyday life. Where the recent elections were for county councils, we have averaged the results for each district council within that county.

Here’s five key takeaways:

1. Councils won by Reform are less likely than average to be satisfied with policing, jobs, their quality of life and community cohesion. They are 10-points below the net UK average on the availability of jobs, 7pts on their quality of life and 4pts on both policing and community cohesion.
2. However, not all Reform councils are built on the same foundations. There is variation by region. For example, Kent in the Southeast, is the Reform council most likely to be satisfied with their quality of life, 13 points above the UK average, and some 29-points ahead of Doncaster (the Reform council least likely to be satisfied here and across most other measures). Facing out to the Channel, Kent voters will likely have their own concerns with immigration, but bordering London, it also over indexes on being dissatisfied with housing compared to other Reform won councils (-51 vs. -39). Lincolnshire also stands out as being  less pessimistic about their quality of life. 
3. Meanwhile, councils won by the Liberal Democrats are far more likely in be in line with UK averages – if not a bit more satisfied. It is perhaps unsurprising when you look at where they are – in Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire and Shropshire – that they stand out as being particularly happy with their quality of life (15-points ahead of the net UK average), community cohesion (7-points ahead) and education (5-points ahead).
4. There’s large variation among councils where there’s no overall control. Councils where Reform are the largest party, such as Cornwall, look similar to Kent, where their concerns are more likely to be driven by housing, but also jobs.  Whereas, Northumberland, where the Conservatives held on as the largest party, look like prime targets for Farage’s party, as they are 14-points behind the national average on their quality of life and 25-points below on jobs.
5. Then, lastly, it’s worth remembering that these elections were mostly held in rural areas, where some truths hold across the board. For example, councils won by each party are far below the UK average on the quality of transport available to them (all 16-17 points behind). Then, there’s also national concerns that percolate down to the local level with everyone equally worried about healthcare provision in their local area.
    

As political parties decide how to respond, or even change tack, as a consequence of these local elections, this analysis stresses the importance of improving bread-and-butter public services, local communities and tackling regional inequalities head on.