Wirral South

Wirral South by-election poll

9 February 1997

MORI On-Line surveys interviewed a representative quota sample of 601 adults aged 18+ by telephone in the Parliamentary constituency of Wirral South
Interviews conducted 6-7 February 1997
Data weighted to match the constituency population
Research study conducted for The Mail on Sunday

As you may know, there will be a by-election in this constituency, on 27 February following the death last year of the sitting MP.

Q1 How do you intend to vote at the by-election? (If undecided or refused at Q1) Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 601

	14-16 Jan	6-7 Feb
	MORI / Sun	MORI MoS
Conservative	36	35
Labour	52	54
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem	12	10
Green Party	*	*
Referendum Party	*	-
Other	1	1

Would not vote		5
Undecided		12
Refused		5

Q3 Can you tell me how likely you are to get along to vote at the by-election?

	14-16 Jan	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%	%
Certain not to vote	4	7	3	4	4
Not very likely to vote	4	3	2	1	-
Quite likely to vote	12	7	6	7	3
Very likely to vote	17	17	19	16	29
Certain to vote	61	64	69	71	64
Don't know	1	2	1	1	-

Q4 Which of the following comes closest to your reasons for supporting the party at the by-election?

	14-16 Jan	All	Lab
	%	%	%
It is the party that most represents your views	58	64	66
You are voting against the Conservative Party to send a message to the Government	32	23	24
Neither of these	8	9	7
No opinion	2	3	3

Q5 Have you definitely decided to vote for the .... PARTY NAMED AT Q1/2, or is there a chance that you may change your mind before the by-election?

	14-16 Jan	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%	%
Definitely decided	72	77	68	88	45
May change mind	27	22	29	12	55
Don't know	1	1	3	-	-

Q6 Which of the party leaders, John Major, Tony Blair or Paddy Ashdown, do you think would be the best Prime Minister?

	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%
John Major	27	78	3	4
Tony Blair	39	3	80	28
Paddy Ashdown	9	2	6	42
None	12	8	5	17
Don't know	13	9	6	9

Q7 I would now like you to think about what might happen after the General Election. If Labour were to win the General Election, do you think that they would or would not do each of the following?

a: Raise the rate of income tax b: Raise or extend VAT c: Raise other indirect taxation d: Keep public spending levels in line with the present government's plans

	a	b	c	d
	%	%	%	%
Would	53	31	61	61
Would not	29	45	18	34
Don't know	18	24	21	18

Q8 Which of the political parties do you think has the best policies on education?

	%
Conservative	29
Labour	33
Liberal Democrat	8
Other	1
None	7
Don't know	21

Q9 Do you support or oppose the principle of selection in education - with grammar schools for the most able children?

	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%
Support	72	92	56	82
Oppose	22	6	36	17
Don't know	6	2	8	1

Q10 If Labour were to win the election, do you think they would or would not abolish grammar schools in this area?

	All	Con	Lab	Lib Dem
	%	%	%	%
Yes, would abolish them	37	61	19	35
No, would not abolish them	49	27	71	47
Don't know	14	13	10	18

Q11 Which party did you vote for at the last General Election, in April 1992? If you are not sure, or did not vote, please say so.

	14-16 Jan	Re-percent	Actual	6-7 Feb
	%	%	%	%
Conservative	40	41	50	51
Labour	32	34	41	35
Liberal Democrat	9	7	8	13
Green	1	*	*	1
Other	*	*	*	1
Did not vote	8	9
Too young	4	4
Can't remember	2	2
Refused	5	2

Q12 Which party do you intend to vote for at the General Election this year, when it comes? (If undecided or refused at Q12) Q13 Which party are you inclined to support?

	14-16 Jan	6-7 Feb
Conservative	37	35
Labour	54	55
Liberal Democrat	8	9
Green	*	*
Referendum Party	*	*
Other	*	*
Would not vote	1	3
Undecided	10	11
Refused	6	5

Technical details

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 601 adults (aged 18+) across the Wirral South constituency on 6-7 February 1996. Interviews were carried out by telephone. At the analysis stage, the data were weighted to match the population profile. All figures are in percentages. Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to multiple responses, the exclusion of don't knows or computer rounding. An asterisk (*) denotes a figure below 0.5, but not zero.

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