Worcester's Weblog: Two elections in 2010?

Gordon Brown appears doomed, but there is still all to play for. It depends not only on “events, dear boy, events”, but also on the apparent reluctance of Labour supporters to turn out to save their government and give Brown credit for the upturn in the economy many potential voters expect in the next 12 months, plus the vagaries of the electoral system and the built-in benefit constituency boundaries give Labour. Over the past year there has been a remarkable return of confidence that the next 12 months will see an economic recovery. Yet over that period, Labour’s share of the polls has declined from 31% measured by the five main polling organisations during January to a dismal 26%, stable since the end of June. Several months ago the prime minister and his chancellor were saying they expected recovery by the end of the year, and in planning for the May 2010 election,thought four months of intensive campaigning in the run-up to election day would give them time to overtake the Tories, or at least win sufficient constituencies to form a fourth-term government. Their hopes and plans are dashed by the fact that, as the recovery message sank home, so did Labour’s support in the polls. According to the latest Ipsos findings, just 52% of the electorate are “certain” they will vote at the next election. With such a low turnout and three-months’ stability in the polls at 40% for the Tories, 26% for Labour and 19% for the Lib Dems – a 14% Conservative lead would give David Cameron a 62-seat overall majority on a uniform swing. However, if the turnout should be, say, at the 2005 level of 61%, with Labour up three points to the level of Michael Foot’s disastrous campaign in 1983, and Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats at 20% – still down three from 2005 – then even a Tory lead of 10 points could result in a hung parliament. Cameron would still form a government, but a second election in 2010 would be in the offing.

Sir Robert Worcester is the Founder of MORI. This article was published in The Observer.