51% of those aware of the social union deal feel it is a step in the right direction

51% of those aware of the social union deal feel it is a step in the right direction and that Quebec should have signed on

Awareness extends to 7 in 10 - but full understanding and depth of awareness is low

Quebeckers are more optimistic about the future of the health care system in Quebec and have more confidence in Pauline Marois the new Minister of Health and Social Services

The results presented here are taken from a telephone survey of 1,000 Quebec residents, conducted between February 17th and 22th, 1999.

These data are representative of the distribution of the Quebec population along all key demographic variables including Mother Tongue. As well, the distribution of the interviews across the province is representative of the geographic distribution of the population.

A sample of this size is said to be representative of the Quebec voting population +3,1%, 19 times out of 20.

In total, only 30% of respondents said they were at least "somewhat aware" of the social union deal and the negotiations around the deal, while 39% felt they were "not really aware" and 30% answered they were "not at all aware" of the federal-provincial deal. (See table 1)

Excluding those "not at all aware of the deal", 59% agreed the deal was a step in the right direction when it comes to renewing the Canadian federation, compared to 33% who disagreed with the same statement (8% did not know or were not sure). Overall opinions of the deal tended to be tied to participants views on sovereignty, as 79% of federalists felt the deal was a positive step for Canada, compared to only 35% among sovereigntists. (See Table 2)

Quebeckers were divided on their perception of the negotiation process as 34% felt both levels of government, Ottawa and Quebec, negotiated in good faith, compared to 29% who believed both government were not of good faith. Finally, 32% were convinced only one level of government was negotiating in good faith. Of this last group, 48% felt only the federal government was honest in its intent to negotiate a deal, while 49% believed only Quebec city was acting in good faith. As might be expected, 85% of federalists in this category felt Ottawa was acting out of good faith, while 88% of sovereigntists in this group believed Quebec City was honest in its intentions. (See Table 3)

Looking at a series of statements about the social union deal, results were the following (See Table 4):

• 51% agreed Quebec should have signed the deal (including 21% of sovereigntists), while 45% disagreed (including 19% of federalists);
• 77% agreed Premier Bouchard was set on turning down the deal even before negotiations began (63% of sovereigntists), while 20% disagreed (including 8% of federalists);
• 60% agreed the deal does not meet Quebec's basic demands (including 45% of federalists), while 32% disagreed (including 14% of sovereigntists);
• 70% agreed the deal will lead to better collaboration between Ottawa and the provinces in the long run (including 46% of sovereigntists), while 26% disagreed (including 9% of federalists);
• 70% agreed the Government of Canada should "re-open" the deal in order to accommodate Quebec (including 74% of sovereigntists), while 28% disagreed (including 32% of federalists);
• 49% agreed the fact Quebec did not agree to the deal is a sign that Canadian federalism "does not work" (including 22% of federalists), while 50% disagreed (including 16% of sovereigntists);
• 61% agreed with Jean Charest's decision to announce he would not have signed the deal if he had been premier (including 40% of federalists), compared to 35% who disagreed (including 11% of sovereigntists);

Quebeckers are more optimistic about the future of the health care system in Quebec and have more confidence in Pauline Marois the new Minister of Health and Social Services

A total of 47% of respondents are optimistic that the quality of health care services in Quebec will improve over the next 5 years, an increase of 21% of optimistic responses since the Winter of 1998, where only 26% were optimistic. Comparatively, the percentage of respondents who feel quality will deteriorate has decreased by 24% from 50% in March 1998 to 26% in February 1999. (See Table 5)

Compared to the 39% confidence level Minister Rochon got in our March 1998 survey, Ms. Marois, the new Minister of Health and Social Services, presently enjoys a confidence level of 55%, while 42% of respondents have little (24%) or no confidence (18%) in the Minister. With the announcement of new funding in health care and with the political context having changed in Quebec, Ms. Marois is presently dealing with an environment kinder to her than to her predecessor. (See Table 6)

For further information, please contact:

Christian Bourque
Senior Research Director
Angus Reid Group
(514) 877-5550