The `97 Election: Early Campaign

As the first two weeks of the '97 election campaign come to an end, none of the opposition parties has, as yet, been successful at chipping away at the Chretien Liberals' overall lead in popular support. But the regional battles are looking increasingly intense - in Quebec, the BQ has seen its support drop by 13 percentage points since the writs were dropped, and Reform has been gaining ground in the West.

These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid /Southam News/CTV News Poll taken among a representative cross-section of 3,208 Canadian voters between May 5th and 8th, 1997. This national sample includes reliable sub-samples in all major regions of the country.

The Liberals will obviously be pleased that their national support levels are holding, especially in spite of the somewhat rocky start to their campaign. These poll results suggest the possibility of a change in the official opposition in the next Parliament given the BQ's recent losses; in that case, Reform looks like the strongest contender given its strength in B.C. and Alberta, at least at this stage of the campaign.

As the campaign enters the mid-stretch, the Chretien Liberals do have some problems, including: many voters' resentment at the election timing; Jean Charest's leadership appeal; and the fact that a lot more voters are being turned off than on by the governing party's campaign. But, the bottom line is that the Liberals are maintaining their solid lead and enjoy solid positioning on the range of key issues the electorate is considering in campaign '97.

Party Standings

The Chretien Liberals are currently holding 42 percent of the decided vote, a single point over their share of support in October 1993. The Liberals held the same level of support immediately pre-writ but are well back from their "honeymoon" levels. The Charest Conservatives are at 19 percent nationally (up a single point from 18%) and Preston Manning's Reform party is at 18 percent (up 2 points from 16% pre-writ). The New Democrats are now at 11 percent and the Bloc Quebecois is at 9 percent nationally (36% in Quebec). (Table 1A) (A total of 8% of those surveyed were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election, a figure that was 12% before a follow-up "leaning" question.)

The "battle for the regions" looks as follows at the end of week two of campaign '97: (Table 1B)

• B.C. continues to look very competitive, with Reform now in front at 41 percent to the Liberals' 34 percent. This is roughly half a dozen points higher than both these parties' 1993 election support. The NDP are at 17 percent in B.C. and the Conservatives are at 6 percent (down 8 points from 1993). A province-wide Angus Reid Poll conducted last week found the Liberals and Reform tied in B.C.
• Alberta is also looking competitive: here too, Reform has taken first place with 41 percent of the decided vote against 31 percent for the Liberals. This is a gain for Reform over their position here for the past year or so, but is still 11 points below their 52 percent share of the Alberta vote in 1993. The Conservatives are at 21 percent in Alberta and the NDP at 6 percent.
• In Manitoba/Saskatchewan, the Liberals are down at 34 percent in this poll, possibly a reflection of these voters' irritation at the timing of the election call, given the Manitoba flood situation. The NDP and Reform are still battling it out for second place here (at 25% each), while the Tories are at 16 percent across these two provinces.
• Ontario, with its motherlode of seats in the next Parliament, looks a lot like it did in 1993 - that is, like solid Liberal turf. This latest poll shows them at 52 percent here now, consistent with their share of the Ontario vote in 1993 (which delivered them 98 of 99 seats). The Conservatives are at 19 percent of the decided Ontario vote, against 16 percent for Reform and 12 percent for the NDP.
• Quebec is where the most action has been so far in this campaign. This latest poll shows the Bloc Quebecois under Gilles Duceppe holding 36 percent of the decided Quebec vote, down fully 13 points from just a few weeks ago. The Chretien Liberals remain at 38 percent. The Charest Conservatives are up at 20 percent in Quebec (from 9% in late April). The NDP are at 4 percent in Quebec. Compared to the 1993 vote here, the Bloc is down 13 points, the Liberals up 5 points, and the Conservatives up 6 points.
• Across the Atlantic region, the Liberals are at 40 percent (well back from "honeymoon" levels and from the 57% they received in 1993), while the Conservatives are at 31 percent, the NDP 18 percent and Reform at 10 percent. (Table 1B)

Diagnostics: Commitment/Residual Support

This Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Election Poll included some key "diagnostics" to further examine the parties' current standings:

• A look at the current data on the commitment of the parties' support bases suggests no major advantage for any of the parties at this time in terms of the likelihood of their supporters actually going to the polls to vote and with respect to the certainty of voters' current party choice. If anything, it is Reform which enjoys the most committed support base and the Liberals who might be slightly more vulnerable to supporters staying at home on June 2nd. (Table 2A)
• But the polling data regarding residual support - decided voters' second-choice party - show the Conservatives maintaining a distinct advantage. Across all decided voters, the Tories are named by 28 percent as their second choice party, followed by the Liberals at 18 percent, the NDP at 15 percent and Reform at only 12 percent. The Conservatives are well placed to pick up disaffected Liberals (41% of Liberals choose the Conservatives as their second-choice party, 21% the NDP, and only 14% choose Reform). Current Reform party supporters also tend to opt for the Tories (33%). Conservatives, for their part, remain far more likely to name the Liberals as their second choice than they are to name Reform or the New Democrats (39% versus 23% and 14% respectively). (Table 2B)

Who Has Momentum?

A key line of questioning included in this Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Poll asked voters whether there had been any change in their opinion of the federal parties and leaders thus far into the election campaign. The results suggest some continued positive momentum for the Charest Conservatives and now for the NDP as well: both are impressing more voters than they are disappointing so far in this campaign. This is in marked contrast to both the Liberals and now the BQ who are turning off more voters than they have been impressing. Reform's momentum numbers are closer to break-even, but still tilting negative. (Table 3)

Do the Liberals Deserve Re-Election?

On the key ballot question as to whether or not the Liberals deserve re-election, this latest poll finds the Canadian electorate evenly divided: 48 percent said the Liberals do "deserve to be re-elected because, all things considered, they've been doing a good job of running the country" versus 49 percent who said "the Liberals don't deserve to be re-elected and it is now time to give one of the other parties a chance to run the country". While this may be short of massive enthusiasm for a Liberal re-election, clearly the 48 percent on-side would be ample to deliver that outcome. (Table 4A)

Majority or Minority Preferred?

By a margin approaching two to one (60% to 38%), Canadians would prefer to elect a majority rather than minority government on June 2nd. This is the preference of most voters of all political stripes (including 74% of Liberals), with the one exception of NDPers who are hoping to see a minority and Reformers who are split. (Table 4B)

Election Timing

Many voters are irritated with the timing of this election call, perhaps generically but certainly in the context of the flooding situation in Manitoba. Asked for their overall opinion on the timing issue, 52 percent said they believe "it was wrong for the Liberals to call the election now in light of the magnitude of the flooding and the problems it's causing in Manitoba" versus 46 percent who said "it was OK to call the federal election since only a small number of ridings are affected and the flooding will basically be over by voting day anyway". As might be expected, residents of the prairie region (Manitoba/Saskatchewan combined) were most vociferous in their complaints about the election timing (60% said it was wrong), although this view was shared by a substantial number of voters from all major regions of the country. (Table 5)

Survey Methodology

This National Angus Reid/Southam News/CTV News Poll was conducted by telephone between May 5th and 8th, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 3,208 Canadian adults.

The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 700; Alberta - 703; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 201; Ontario - 605; Quebec - 796; Atlantic - 203. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional representation and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 and 1996 Census data, and were also adjusted for respondents' past voting behaviour.

With the national sample of 3,208, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the national results are within ±2.25 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. Regionally, the B.C. and Alberta samples of 700 have a margin of error of ±3.5 percent; the prairies ±7.0 percent; Ontario ±4.0 percent; Quebec ±3.5 percent; and, the Atlantic region ±7.0 percent.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900

Bob Richardson
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900