The Alberta Public Agenda & Political Scene

With a provincial election drawing closer, the governing Progressive Conservatives have bolstered their commanding lead over the other electoral alternatives in Alberta, according to the most recent Calgary Herald/Angus Reid Group poll. This survey found that despite high levels of concern about health care and education, Ralph Klein and his party continue to enjoy approval from a sizeable majority of voters in the province - indeed, when assessing personal support and approval for a government, Mr. Klein is a politician with few rivals across Canada. These results were gleaned from the Calgary Herald/Angus Reid Group survey, conducted between November 13th and 20th, 1996, among a representative cross-section of 800 adult residents of the province.

The poll's main highlights were as follows:

The Public Agenda

• Health care continues to dominate the public's agenda with over one-half (53%) of those interviewed identifying this issue as the most pressing problem facing the province today. Health care ascended to the top of the province's political agenda in May 1995 and has remained the most important issue since. The proportion of Albertans identifying health care as the chief concern for the province has dropped-off slightly since our last survey in August (61%). Women, those over the age of 55, and residents of Edmonton are the most likely to mention health care as the province's most important issue.
• Education (27%) and unemployment (25%) rank second and third on the issue agenda, well behind health care. Concerns about education reveal a definite gender-bias with women (36%) considerably more likely than their male counterparts (20%) to mention this as a top priority for the province. Mentions of unemployment as a major political issue are down six percentage points since our last assessment in August. Unemployment is also an issue which is consistently mentioned across most major demographic breaks.
• The deficit and government debt have fallen off sharply as important issues for Albertans, peaking in March 1995 at 45% and ranking fourth in our most recent November 1996 poll at 22%. Gender plays a role in mentions of government indebtedness and overspending with men (28%) more likely than women (16%) to cite the issue. Government debt is also an issue which is raised more prominently by residents of southern Albertan than elsewhere in the province. Other issues which appear on the provincial issue agenda in November included: the economy (14%); government cutbacks (7%); the environment, taxes and tax reform, and poor political leadership (4% each); crime and social services (3% each); and National Unity (1%).

The Provincial Political Scene

In November, Premier Ralph Klein receives approval from seven-in-ten (70%) Albertans - the highest level of support for Mr. Klein since becoming Premier and continuing a trend of high support which has lasted for more than two years. In contrast, Grant Mitchell, leader of the Official Opposition Liberals garners higher levels of disapproval (46%) than support (37%) from Albertans, although Mitchell's approval continues to improve, albeit slowly. New to our list of provincial leaders, Pam Barrett suffers from anonymity, with over one-third (37%) of those interviewed stating that they are uncertain about the recently installed ND leader, while another 33% say they approve and 30% disapprove of Ms Barrett. (See Table 3)

Government approval has not dropped below 60% since April of 1994, and our most recent sounding of opinion finds support for the provincial government at near record levels (71%). This level of support for the Klein government marks a 5 percentage point increase since our August survey. (See Table 4) With a provincial election only a few months away, just under one-in-six (15%) voters in the province are currently uncertain about their future selection at the polls. Among decided voters, the provincial PC party is the likely choice of nearly two-thirds (65%), while the Liberals capture only 22% of the decided vote, followed by the NDs and other parties with 10% and 2% respectively. The provincial Liberals have seen an 8 percentage point decline in their share of the decided vote since August, while the provincial NDs have seen their fortunes improve by 6 percentage points during the same time period. (See Table 5)

• Regionally, the Tories enjoy a majority of the decided vote in all areas of the province, although strongest pockets of support appear outside of Edmonton. (See Table 6)

Commenting on the survey, Bruce Cameron, Senior Vice President of the Angus Reid Group noted:

"Support for the Klein government continues to be overwhelming. Klein's personal popularity is so firmly entrenched that even concerns over the government's health care policies have not diminished the PCs electoral support. If these numbers were to hold up in the upcoming election campaign, there would undoubtedly be a massive Tory landslide victory".

This Alberta-wide Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between November 13th to 20th, 1996 among a random and representative sampling of 800 adult Albertans.

With a sample of 800, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within 1773.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Alberta population been survey. The margin of error is higher for sub-samples.

This public opinion survey was conducted by the Alberta Division of the Angus Reid Group as part of the Angus Reid Report on Alberta, a quarterly publication on business, politics and economics in the province.

For more information on this release, please contact:

Bruce Cameron
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(403) 237-0066
944-9164 in Edmonton

Marc Henry
Research Manager
Angus Reid Group
(403) 237-0066