BC Federal Election Poll: The Party Leaders

As the 1997 election gets underway, the positioning of the leaders in the public's mind shows that federal Liberal leader, Jean Chrйtien, continues to be quite popular in British Columbia. He is judged the strong favourite as best Prime Minister. By comparison, Reform leader, Preston Manning, continues to linger in a distant second position behind Chrйtien, though he has improved his position with the BC public over the past few weeks in this regard. Manning is, however, the clear favourite choice for Leader of the Official Opposition. The other two main party leaders - Jean Charest and Alexa McDonough - remain well back in terms of their popularity.

Highlights

37 percent of British Columbians pick Jean Chrйtien as "best Prime Minister", compared to 20 percent for Preston Manning, 19 percent for Jean Charest, and 7 percent for Alexa McDonough. 17 percent could not or would not pick any of the current party leaders.

30 percent of British Columbians say that Preston Manning would make the best Leader of the Official Opposition, compared to 20 percent for Jean Charest, 16 percent for Chrйtien, 12 percent for McDonough, and 1 percent for Bloc Quйbйcois leader, Gilles Duceppe. A full 20 percent either did not know or would not say who they think would make the best Official Opposition leader.

Who Would Make The Best Prime Minister?

Of the four main party leaders, British Columbians are currently more likely to choose Liberal leader, Jean Chrйtien, above all other leaders, as the person they feel would make the best Prime Minister of the country. In all, 37 percent of survey respondents singled out Chrйtien as the person for the job. Reform leader, Preston Manning, is a distant second, receiving just 20 percent of the public's support as "best Prime Minister"; British Columbians are about as likely to see Tory leader, Jean Charest, in the PM's chair (19%). Far fewer pick NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (7%). One percent choose Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc Quйbйcois leader. A full 17 percent either could not say, or felt that none of the current party leaders would do the job that well.

The results from this initial 1997 election campaign poll show that the gap between the two main party leaders has shrunk over the few weeks. In an pre-writ Angus Reid Group poll conducted in April, 44 percent of British Columbians picked Chrйtien as the best man for the job of Prime Minister compared to 14 percent who chose Manning - an 30 percentage point gap. This has been cut to only 17 points as the first week of campaigning ends, indicating that Manning seems to be gaining ground on the still popular Chrйtien. Jean Charest and Alexa McDonough have not seen any real movement in their numbers over the past month.

Chrйtien's popularity for the Prime Minister's job crosses all regional and socio-demographic segments in the population, with only small variations. A full 40 percent of Vancouver Island residents pick him as the person they see as the best PM.

A similar pattern is true for Reform leader, Preston Manning, though we do note a stronger endorsement from men (25%) than women (14%) in the province. Twenty percent of Island residents see Manning as the best man for the PM's job.

Jean Charest is most popular among people living in Vancouver/Burnaby (21%) and other areas outside the Lower Mainland and the Island in the rest of BC, where 22 percent of people choose him for best Prime Minister.

Alexa McDonough registers higher "Best PM" scores on Vancouver Island (11%) than elsewhere in the province, but remains a distant contender in all other areas and among all population groups.

Among political party supporters, we note that Preston Manning is not as popular choice among Reformers as Jean Chrйtien is among Liberals. Only half (49%) the people who say they will vote Reform think Manning would make the best Prime Minister, compared to a full 68 percent of Liberals who put their bets on Chrйtien. Meanwhile, 40 percent of New Democrats also choose Chrйtien; 18 percent of Reformers also pick the current Liberal leader, while only 4 percent of Liberals think Manning has what it takes to be PM.

Who Would Make The Best Leader Of The Official Opposition?

If British Columbians were choosing the Leader of the Official Opposition, they are much more likely to see Preston Manning in the job than all others. A full 30 percent of people surveyed chose Manning, compared to only 20 percent for Jean Charest, his nearest rival. Another 16 percent feel Jean Chrйtien would perform best as her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, while only 12 percent pick NDP leader, Alexa McDonough. One percent of British Columbians pick Bloc Quйbйcois leader, Gilles Duceppe for the job. Some 20 percent of the BC public were unsure of their preference or said that none of the current leaders could do the job well enough.

Preference for Manning to take the opposition helm has dropped by 8 points since our pre-writ poll, from 38 percent in April to its current 30 percent.

Those most likely to pick Manning for the role of Official Opposition leader include: Vancouver Island residents (38%), men (37%), and older British Columbians (34%).

The Angus Reid Group poll was conducted between April 28th and May1, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within ±4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult B.C. population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1991 Census data.

For further information, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200