BC Federal Election Poll: Public Issues Agenda

1. Most Important Election Issues

The BC public is focussed on two major issues for this election campaign: jobs and unemployment, and the deficit and government spending. These two issues stand out well above all others when BC voters are asked to identify what is the most important issue for them in this federal election campaign.

A number of secondary issues also surface, however. These include taxes, the economy, healthcare, and national unity. These last two issues are well back in the public's consideration of important national issues at this time.

It is important to point out, however, that further probing of issues reveals a considerable overlap of the main and secondary issues, hinting that the BC population is perhaps less focussed on a single issue than one might think. Indeed, they appear to see some linkages between issues.

The survey's findings show that British Columbians single out the following issues they would like to see debated in this election campaign:

• Jobs and unemployment (21 % total mentions)
• Deficit and government spending (18%)
• Taxes or tax reform (GST) (9%)
• Economy (9%)
• Healthcare and medicare (5%)
• National unity/Quebec (4%)

A. Jobs & Government spending

This issue tops the public's agenda by a modest margin with 21 percent of British Columbians mentioning it as the issue they feel should be debated in the election. When respondents were asked what specifically concerned them about this issue, the vast majority (89%) talked about the "job creation" and "putting people to work". No other single issue about jobs and unemployment really surfaces in poll findings.

People who care a great deal about deficit and government spending and feel it should be debated in this election are over-represented on Vancouver Island. They are also more likely to be women, older British Columbians, and have not completed a high school education.

Which Party Would do the Best Job Handling This Issue?

British Columbians put both the federal Liberals and the Reform party on an equal footing when it comes to which party they feel would be best able to deal with the jobs and unemployment question. About a quarter (24%) of those mentioning this issue feel the Reform party would succeed better than others, compared to 22 percent who choose the Liberals. The NDP (11%) and the Progressive Conservatives (5%) sit well back in the BC public's consideration set of parties who would best deal with the jobs issue.

B. Deficit and Government Spending

Eighteen percent of British Columbians mention this issue as the one they feel is most important for them in this election campaign. Here, mention is made of the need to "lower the deficit" (57%), of "getting government spending under control" (25%). In addition, however, we note that among those who mention this issue, some also relate it to a high level of taxes and the GST (9%). Others talk of "honesty in government", and "cutbacks in social services", showing that the issue does touch a number of different policy areas.

Among those most likely to mention this issue as the most important election issue, we find a greater proportion of men and better educated British Columbians. There are no significant regional differences to speak of for this issue.

Which Party Would do the Best Job Handling This Issue?

The Liberals are singled out as the party most likely to do the best job in handling the deficit and debt issue; 35 percent of people who mention this issue choose the Liberals. However, Reform is close behind in second place; 30 percent of respondents for whom this is a crucial election issue turn to Reform to deal with it. All other parties are very distant considerations.

C. Taxes

The issue of taxes, including tax reform or the GST, preoccupy a smaller number of British Columbians this election campaign. With 9 percent total mentions this issue is not that firmly positioned in the public's mind as one which they would like to see debated. When probed about this issue, however, "overtaxation" was the particular concern people had in mind; 85 percent of people talked more specifically about having to pay too much in taxes, and of having too many taxes.

Which Party Would do the Best Job Handling This Issue?

While sample size prevents us from making any reliable statements about this issue, directionally, the Reform party is seen by British Columbians to be the party most capable of dealing with this issue.

D. Economy

The economy stands out as a secondary issue thus far in this election campaign, with 9 percent of the BC population identifying it as the most important issue for them. Interestingly, when probed what they are concerned about, people tend to refer to things like "job creation/putting people to work", "debt reduction", "high taxes", and "government spending", which underscores the overlap with the top issues.

Which Party Would do the Best Job Handling This Issue?

Directionally, there appears to be no real consensus among British Columbians as to whether or not the Liberals or the Reform party would be the party best able to deal with issues related to the economy.

2. Representing BC's Interest in Ottawa

The federal Reform party stands out for British Columbians as the most likely flagbearer to represent BC's interests in Ottawa. When asked this question, about a third of the BC public (32%) choose Preston Manning's Reform party, well ahead of the number who opt for the Liberals (21%). Few people consider the NDP (11%), or the Progressive Conservatives (4%). Importantly, a full 27 percent of those surveyed could not or would not choose any of the four main parties currently running candidates in the province for this federal election.

Those most likely to single out the Reform party tend to be concentrated more on Vancouver Island (35%) and in the Rest of BC outside the Lower Mainland (36%). They also emerge in following population segments: men (42%), older British Columbians (37%), and upper income people in the province (38%).

The Liberals are most likely to identified as the party best able to represent BC's interests in Ottawa by: Vancouver/Burnaby residents (25%), younger people (24%), and university graduates (24%). Only 17 percent of Vancouver Island residents pick the Liberals.

3. Main Reasons for Party Support

Reform party supporters are backing the party more due to the policies they are putting forth to the electorate than for any other reason. A full 25 percent of Reform supporters identified policies as the number one reason for their support; this is higher than for any other party. For 12 percent of Reformers, the party's appeal is due more to a dislike for the alternatives than anything particular Reform may have to offer.

Liberal party supporters are behind the Liberals for reasons related to their track record in government (16% mentions), and to the policies they are putting forth to the electorate (11%). However, the number one reason for Liberal support is a dislike for the other parties; 19 percent mention this as the most important factor in their decision to vote Liberal.

The NDP stands out as the party which has appeal for the greatest variety of reasons, from policies (16%) to party loyalty (7%). There are some, however, who do feel the NDP is "best for my region" (10%), have a particularly "good candidate locally" (10%). Again, however, a dislike for the other parties (9%) still surfaces.

Though the sample size is small, we do note that Tory supporters are attracted by the leader and the policies being put forth by the party at this time.

The Angus Reid Group poll was conducted between April 28th and May 1st, 1997 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within ±4.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult B.C. population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 1991 Census data.

For further information, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200