BC Public's Views On Decision To Hold Referendum On Treaty Negotiations

Vancouver, BC - A new BC Ipsos-Reid poll taken immediately after the provincial government sent out aboriginal referendum ballots to the BC population in early April, finds British Columbians losing enthusiasm for the referendum due in part to a concern about the consequences for treaty negotiations. Despite the government's intention to "kick-start" the treaty process with the referendum, the BC public believes it could have a more negative (52%) than positive (25%) effect on the treaty process. Perhaps as a result, fewer people support the referendum process today than was the case just 4 months ago (54% vs 60% in December 2001), and far fewer are prepared to participate in the referendum (65% "very likely" in December 2001 vs 51% in April 2002). Indeed, a solid majority of people in British Columbia now feel the referendum is a waste of money, given other government priorities - 60%, up from 54% in December.

"The BC public clearly has some doubts about this referendum - what it means, whether to hold it, and what it's trying to achieve", comments Daniel Savas, Senior Vice-President with Ipsos-Reid in Vancouver. "The Liberal government has gambled that the referendum can inject a degree of momentum to the treaty process, and thereby bring public support behind its efforts. The challenge for the Liberals will be to make the results useable, that is translate them into action at the treaty negotiation table. This will be especially important given the expectations the government raised by holding the referendum in the first place. If it doesn't deliver the goods in terms of a rejuvenated treaty process, or worse, if further delays in the process happen, the Liberals could lose credibility on this issue."

MAJORITY OF BC PUBLIC (52%) THINKS REFERENDUM WILL HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TREATY NEGOTIATIONS

A slim majority of British Columbians - 52% - believes that holding the referendum on aboriginal treaty negotiations will have a negative impact on negotiations with BC's aboriginal peoples; one-in-three (32%) think the effect could be "very negative". To contrast, 25% feel the referendum is going to have a positive impact, with just 7% holding strong views in this regard. Meanwhile, 20% believe the referendum will have "no impact at all" on treaty negotiations. Overall, then, almost three-in-four people in BC do not see anything positive emerging from the referendum when it comes to treaty negotiations with BC's aboriginal peoples.

This view is held broadly across all regions of the province, and among all demographic groups. The concern about a negative impact is nonetheless stronger with middle-aged British Columbians (58% of 35-54 years of age vs. 48% older and younger), university graduates (62% vs. 41% high school grads), people living in upper income households (55% vs 41% lower income), and individuals who are currently employed (57% vs 43% unemployed).

It's interesting to note that whether or not one is likely to vote in the referendum process is related to one's position on the impact it could have on treaty negotiations. While most BC residents do see a negative effect from the referendum, those most likely to vote are more than twice as likely to see the referendum having a positive impact on the treaty process than those unlikely to vote (35% positive vs 15%), suggesting voters are participating in the referendum for this reason. By contrast, 61% of non-voters think the referendum will have a negative impact, compared to 43% of voters.

NO CONSENSUS ON REFERENDUM; SUPPORT SLIPS 6 POINTS SINCE DECEMBER (60% TO 54%); 43% OPPOSE THE REFERENDUM

British Columbians have not reached any consensus when it comes to their reaction to the provincial government's decision to hold the referendum on treaty negotiations with BC's aboriginal peoples. While a majority supports the referendum (54%), fully 43% oppose the decision. A closer look at the intensity of the positions reveals the degree to which both sides are polarized; while 26% strongly support the referendum, 29% are strongly against the initiative. Further, enthusiasm with the referendum has waned since December when the initiative was officially launched. Current support levels are 6 percentage points lower than 4 months ago when 60% supported the decision to hold the referendum.

These broad trends hold true across all regions in the province, though there is some variation in views, depending upon where one lives. For example, support for the referendum is somewhat stronger in the suburban Lower Mainland (58%) and the Interior/North (58%). Strongest opposition is registered in Vancouver/Burnaby (52% oppose vs 45% support).

Among the different demographic groups, support is significantly stronger among high school graduates, and individuals with some post-secondary education (60% each respectively) than among university graduates (42% support). Further, while 50% of BC residents aged 55 years or more oppose the referendum, just 38% of younger British Columbians (aged 18-34) are against it.

Members of the BC public most likely to vote in the referendum are also those with the most positive reactions to it; fully 75% support the government's decision, compared to fewer than half as many non-voters (34%).

GROWING MAJORITY OF BC PUBLIC BELIEVES REFERENDUM IS A WASTE OF MONEY (60%, UP 6 POINTS SINCE DECEMBER - 54%)

When asked to give their views on the idea of spending 9 million dollars to hold the referendum, British Columbians are increasingly of the view that the money could be spent better on other government priorities. A solid majority (60%) believes spending 9 million dollars on the referendum is a bad idea, because they feel it's a waste of money, and there are more important priorities for the government. This is up 6 percentage points since December 2001 (54%). Still, a solid, though decreasing, minority - 38% - thinks holding the referendum is a good idea, because they say it would bring certainty to the treaty process, and positive long-term economic benefits to BC.

British Columbians from all walks of life and all parts of the province share similar overall views on the referendum, though certain groups hold them more definitively than others. For example, women are more likely than men to consider the referendum a waste of money (64% vs 55%). Much the same is true of university graduates (66% waste of money vs 54% of high school graduates), and residents living in lower or middle income households (63% vs 53% of upper income households).

BC residents most likely to vote in the referendum are more than three times as likely to also think the outcome will bring greater certainty for the treaty process and economic benefits (59% good idea vs 18% of non-voters).

LIKELIHOOD OF PARTICIPATING IN REFERENDUM DROPS DRAMATICALLY (65% IN DECEMBER TO 51% IN APRIL)

A reduced number of British Columbians say they intend to participate in the referendum on aboriginal treaty negotiations. Currently, 51% of those surveyed say they are "definitely" going to fill out a ballot and mail it in to Elections BC by the May 15th deadline. This is down substantially from the 65% last December who said they'd very likely vote. Another 20% of those surveyed said they'd probably vote, bringing the total potential number of voters to 71%; this is down 14 points from December. Overall, 27% of people in the province say they would not participate in the exercise (up 7 points), with 14% "definitely not voting" (up 3 points.)

Those most likely to vote in the referendum include people in the following groups: Vancouver Island (58% "very likely" to vote), suburban Lower Mainland (52%), and Interior/North (53%) residents (vs just 42% in Vancouver/Burnaby); individuals living in households with $60K or more in annual income (56% vs 42% lower income).

British Columbians who are unlikely to vote in the referendum say they won't participate, mainly because they're critical of the idea of conducting the referendum in the first place. For example, one-in-five non-voters (19%) state that they're "protesting against holding the referendum"; another 10% objected to "the majority voting on minority rights"; 11% "don't believe the referendum was set up fairly, particularly as far as question wording is concerned"; and 7% simply "don't believe in referendums". Among other reasons given for not voting, we found 13% admitting to "not being informed enough about the issues", while 9% believe "it's a waste of money". A smaller number (4%) are worried the referendum "will create animosity between native and non-native people". Finally, 12% expressed some degree of alienation from the voting process ("Vote won't make a difference" (4%), "I don't vote" (3%), "Can't be bothered/Don't have time" (3%), "Don't have an opinion" (2%).

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Daniel Savas
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid
(604) 893-1610 (office)