BC Reid Report -- Key Political and Economic Questions

B.C. POLITICAL SCENE

In this December's B.C. Angus Reid quarterly poll, we find a B.C. population in a particular sour mood when it comes to the provincial political scene. And, the governing New Democrats appear to be the main target of the public's current negative state of mind. The NDP has lost significant public support over the fall months, and finds itself currently well behind the frontrunning provincial Liberal party, which has clearly benefited from the public's increasing dislike for the governing party. The Liberals find themselves at a 2-year high in support among British Columbians.

Compounding the bad news for the NDP, we find that far fewer British Columbians give Premier Clark a vote of confidence today for the job he is doing as leader of the government than was the case three months ago when people seemed to be willing to give him a chance to prove himself. And, views of his government's performance have deteriorated significantly over the same period. For the B.C. Liberals, the party's positive poll results are reinforced by a continued favourable review of its leader.

This poll, taken just over half way into the NDP's first year of a mandate, hints that the party has been unsuccessful to this point in reversing the tide of public criticism it received for a number of perceived missteps by the party early on, notably with respect to questions around the deficit. The degree of the party's drop in public favour, and across a number of indicators, suggests that British Columbians are reacting quite negatively to what the government has been doing and the direction it is has been taking thus far in its mandate. Results for other parties and leaders being in somewhat of a holding pattern indicate that the NDP are masters of their own destiny and, in this case, their own downward spiral.

Provincial Voting Intentions

The B.C. Liberal party sits comfortably atop the public opinion polls, with 52 percent of decided voters saying they would vote for the party in a provincial election. The governing New Democrats trail by a substantial margin of 23 percentage points, with 29 percent of decided voters expressing a preference for the NDP. B.C. Reform (11%) and the Progressive Democratic Alliance linger even further behind. Two percent of decided voters choose the Green party, and 1 percent currently support Social Credit.

A total of 23 percent of people express no preference for any of the parties, being either undecided (11%), choosing none of the parties (10%), or preferring not to vote (2%).

This quarter's BC Reid poll finds the NDP falling a full 8 percentage points since last September, continuing a trend since the May 1996 election. The Liberals are heading in the opposite direction, jumping 8 points over the past three months, and re-establishing their clear front-runner status. Support levels for both B.C. Reform and the P.D.A. have remained essentially the same over the fall months. The number of people who express no preference has edged up 4 points, from its 19 percent level three months ago to the current 23 percent.

The provincial Liberals now lead in all regions of the province, well ahead of all other parties. The Liberal's strongest support is found in the suburban Lower Mainland (66%), where it leads the NDP by 46 percentage points. The New Democrats are, nonetheless, very competitive in their traditional Vancouver Island stronghold, only 2 points behind the Opposition Liberals (37% vs. 39%).

And, while the Liberals also distance themselves among people from all walks of life in the province, men, older British Columbians and people living in upper income households tend to stand out for the strength of their support for the B.C. Liberal party. Though the NDP is behind the Liberal party, it receives particularly strong endorsements from women, younger British Columbians, university graduates, and middle-income households.

Evaluation of Provincial Party Leaders

On the question of political leadership, Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell receives the highest rating of all party leaders, with 53 percent people approving of his performance. This is substantially greater than Premier Glen Clark, who sits at 32 percent approval, slightly ahead of B.C. Reform leader, Jack Weisgerber (31%). P.D.A. leader, Gordon Wilson, scores a comparatively high approval rating; at 46 percent, the public judges him much more favourably than Clark or Weisgerber, and his approval rating is close to that of front-runner Gordon Campbell.

On the other side, we find that the B.C. public is far more critical of Premier Clark's performance as Premier than they are with other party leaders. A full 66 percent of British Columbians currently disapprove of the job Clark has been doing as Premier. This is a substantially poorer rating than given to Opposition Leader Gordon Campbell (40%), B.C. Reform's Jack Weisgerber (42%) or Gordon Wilson (31%).

Overall, British Columbians have clearly changed their minds about Premier Clark over the past few months; his approval rating has dropped 9 percentage points since our September poll, and the proportion of people who disapprove of the job he is doing has moved up dramatically a full 13 points.

By comparison, views of all other provincial political leaders have remained fairly static. Campbell's approval rating has inched up 2 points (51% to 53%). Weisgerber's rating has dropped by the same margin (33% to 31%). And, Gordon Wilson is viewed slightly less positively this quarter (49% to 46%).

Perceptions of Provincial Government Performance

When asked to approve or disapprove the NDP's performance since the May 28th election, we find that the vast majority of British Columbians disapprove of the job the NDP has been doing since being elected. A full 69 percent of those surveyed give the government a thumbs down rating, compared to only 29 percent who approve of its performance.

The B.C. public appears to be souring on the NDP early in its second mandate. The government's approval rating has dropped a significant 11 points since September when 4 in 10 British Columbians felt Glen Clark's government was doing a good job leading the province. Meanwhile, the disapproval rating for this government has shot up a full 14 points over the fall months.

FEDERAL POLITICAL SCENE

The federal Liberal party remains the front-runner on the federal political scene in B.C. The party's solid support and the duration of its ride atop the polls suggests the Liberals are poised to make substantial gains in B.C. in the next federal election, widely expected in the spring of 1997. While there is a sign that Reform has stemmed the downward trend in popularity it has experienced over the past year among the B.C. electorate, the gap between it and the governing Liberals appears almost insurmountable. And, talk of a Tory "revival" elsewhere in the country may well be premature in British Columbia, though support has inched up yet again.

Prime Minister Jean Chrйtien also continues to enjoy strong popularity in British Columbia, with approval ratings well above all other party leaders. His main counterpart in the Reform party has, however, succeeded in turning the tide in a positive direction, though there is only slight movement forward to this point. As for the other two main party leaders, PC leader, Jean Charest, appears unable to sustain any momentum with British Columbians, having lost ground again this quarter. NDP leader, Alexa McDonough, continues to be an unknown face or name on the B.C. federal political map.

Federal Voting Intentions

Currently, the federal Liberals retain 54 percent of support of the decided voting public in British Columbia, which leaves the party well ahead of all its political competition. The Reform party is well back with 22 percent of decided British Columbians saying they would vote for the party in a federal election. Meanwhile, the federal NDP obtains 13 percent of decided voter support, and the PC party is further behind at 10 percent.

Overall, 23 percent of British Columbians express no preference at this time, being either undecided (15%), having no preference for any federal party (6%), or saying they will not vote (2%).

Results from this fall's BC Angus Reid Poll show that the Liberals remain rock solid in British Columbia, having lost only 1 percentage point since our September B.C. Angus Reid poll. Support for the federal Reform party in the province has stabilized at 22 percent, arresting a negative trend for much of the past year.

The federal NDP has experienced a slight 2 point drop over the past few months, moving down from the 15 percent it received in September. The federal Tories now hold a slightly greater proportion of the B.C. electorate than they did three months ago, moving from 6 to 10 percent of popular support, the third straight increase for the party.

The portion of the electorate which expresses no preference has edged up a single point from our September sounding (22% to 23%).

Evaluation of Federal Party Leaders

In terms of how British Columbians view the performance of the various federal party leaders, we find a similar story. Currently, 66 percent of the B.C. public approve of the job Jean Chrйtien is doing as Prime Minister. This is a full 24 points higher than the 42 percent who give Reform party leader, Preston Manning, a favourable rating. Chrйtien is also well ahead of both PC leader, Jean Charest (42%), and NDP leader, Alexa McDonough (23%).

Prime Minister Chrйtien's current rating shows that he continues to maintain the top rating among party leaders, though his favourable review has dropped slightly since September (68% to 66%). The B.C. public's opinions of Preston Manning also have not changed over the past three months (43% to 42% currently); this is good news for Manning, given the downward trend we have noted over much of the past year.

The B.C. public now holds PC leader, Jean Charest, in a less favourable light than was the case this past fall, down 5 points from the 47 percent approval rating three months ago.

NDP leader, Alexa McDonough's low approval rating continues to hide a very high "unknown" factor, though this has dropped slightly; 47 percent could not or would not give her a rating this December, down 3 points from our last poll.

Federal Party Performance

In the area of government performance, the B.C. public remains is a positive mood overall when it comes to the way the Chrйtien Liberals have been governing the country over the past few months; a majority (57%) approve of the job they are doing, compared to 40 percent who disapprove. This assessment unchanged from September.

As for the federal Reform party, British Columbians continue to hold more negative than positive views of the job the party has been doing; 40 percent say they approve of the party's performance, almost half (49%) disapprove. Despite this negative portrait, Reform's approval rating has edged up slightly from our September rating (38% to 40%), the first increase in a year.

THE B.C. PUBLIC'S AGENDA

As 1996 comes to a close, British Columbians are most preoccupied with jobs and unemployment, singling this out as the most important issue facing the province. This quarter's results indicate that concern with jobs has jumped ahead of deficit and government spending as the top issue on the public's agenda, though people in the province place the deficit in the top tier of issues they view as important.

The top issue British Columbians mention on an unaided basis is jobs and unemployment; 29 percent of the people we surveyed mentioned this issue as the one they feel is most important and deserves the greatest attention of B.C.'s political leaders. One-quarter of the population (24%) mentioned the deficit and government spending as their top issue, down from 3 in 10 in September.

In a second grouping of important issues, we find health care (17%), the economy (15%), education (14%), and government scandals (14%). Among these other issues, only education has dropped in the public's evaluation of it as an important issue; three months ago, a full 23 percent singled it out on an unaided basis. By comparison, government scandals/politics has jumped up dramatically in the public's mind, with twice the number of people mentioning it this month than was the case in September (7%).

MOOD OF THE PROVINCE

The B.C. population continues to feel quite upbeat about the direction of their own lives and what the future holds for them. There has been, however, a slight drop in the enthusiasm with which they state their optimism. Currently, 77 percent of people say they hold either very or somewhat optimistic views; this is down slightly from the 79 percent who felt as positively in our September poll, and the first indication of a souring mood in over a year.

This drop in optimism may well be tied to a heightening of job loss anxiety. Currently, 26 percent of people we spoke to say they are concerned about losing their job over the next six months; this represents a 2 percentage point increase from our September poll when 24 percent of British Columbians said they were worried about losing their job.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

British Columbians appear to be digesting some of the negative prognostications and general news about the state of the B.C. economy, injecting yet another pessimistic tone to their overall mood. While most still judge the provincial economy favourably (67% "good"), the degree of optimism has dropped a full 9 percentage points since September (76%).

When asked about their outlook for the future of the B.C. economy, about the same number of British Columbians believe it will improve as say it will worsen over the next year (29% vs. 27%). Interestingly, however, the number of optimists has dropped 6 percent points over the fall months (35% to 29%), while the number of pessimists has increased 7 points during the same period (20% to 27%).

Views of the Canadian economy are, by comparison, quite different. While fewer people overall in the province (59%) give a positive evaluation of the national economy when compared to the B.C. economy, they are much more upbeat about where Canada is heading overall. The numbers have moved up 4 percentage points in the past three months, and continue a generally favourable trend over the past year.

As for the future of the Canadian economy, British Columbians are much more optimistic than pessimistic; 36 percent believe it will improve over the next year, 20 percent feel the economic situation in Canada will worsen. The level of economic optimism has move up 4 points since September, while the number of those with a more negative forecast for the Canadian economy has inched up 1 point.

As we enter the Christmas period, B.C. consumers are more reluctant to part with their hard earned dollars than was the case three months ago. Currently, 18 percent of people surveyed say they will be spending more in the next 12 months than they are at the present time. This is down 4 percentage points from our September poll.

Meanwhile, 27 percent of British Columbians say they will be spending less over the next year, which is up 3 points since September.

CURRENT AFFAIRS

Health Care in B.C.

While the B.C. public still gives the provincial health care system to marks, they are much less positive than was the case a few years ago. And, a majority are very pessimistic about what the future holds. Despite this pessimism, most British Columbians reject outright any move to set up a two-tier health care system in the province.

• Currently, 34 percent of British Columbians rate B.C.'s health care system as excellent or very good. This is down a dramatic 33 percentage points from a B.C. Angus Reid poll conducted in March of 1993.
• Currently, 26 percent of British Columbians give the health care system a thumbs down rating. This is up 18 points from our 1993 poll.
• When asked to look into the crystal ball ten years from now, 50 percent expect the provincial health care system to be worse than it is now. One in five (21%) think it will be better, while a quarter (27%) forecast no changes.
• Though they may be quite negative in their outlook for their health care system, most people in the province (64%) are opposed to the provincial government setting up a two-tiered health care system where those who could afford it could pay the full amount for and receive whatever kinds of services they wanted.

The B.C. Reid poll was conducted between December 2nd and 15th, 1996 among a representative cross-section of 600 British Columbians. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the numbers are within ±4.1 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult B.C. population been polled.

Following are top-line results for the B.C. Reid Report's Winter 1996 edition covering some of the key political and economic questions. This Flash Report provides a first glance overview of some of the results. Full results and detailed analysis will be available by mid-January 1997.

Daniel Savas
Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200