Canadian Public Split on When Jean Chretien Should Leave and His Motives - But Edge Goes to the Prime Minister

Toronto, ONTARIO - A rapid turnaround Ipsos-Reid poll of Canadians, conducted on Friday August 23rd and Saturday August 24th for the Globe and Mail and CTV, shows the Canadian public is split, but giving a slight edge to the Jean Chretien, in terms of whether Prime Minister Chretien should vacate his office immediately or if he should stay on for his announced 18 month swan song.

This Composite Canada Snap Shot which is accurate to within +4.4%, 19 times out of 20 for the country as a whole, shows that 50% give the edge to the Prime Minister's plan to stay on for an additional 18 months because they see it as being reasonable, while 46% believe he should leave immediately and give some one else a chance to run the country.

As for motive, the public splits again - but with the edge as well tilted towards the Prime Minister's stated motives - with 46% saying that he is staying in office for the next 18 months because he has a number of policy initiatives that he wants to get done that will be good for the country, compared to 42% who say that he is just hanging on to power for 18 more months in order to specifically frustrate the leadership aspirations of former Finance Minister Paul Martin.

Detailed Findings:

Half (50%) of Canadians agree that "it is reasonable for him [Prime Minister Chretien] to stay on for the next 18 months because he says he has a number of things that he wants to do that will be good for the country", while 46% agree "that he [Prime Minister Chretien] should leave immediately and should give someone else a chance to run the country."

• Among decided Liberal supporters, the edge is much greater in favour of the Prime Minister remaining on for a year and a half (70% versus 29% who believe he should resign immediately.)
• Men (51%) are more likely than women (41%) to believe the Prime Minister should resign immediately.

As for motive, the public splits again - but with the edge as well tilted towards the Prime Minister - with 46% agreeing "that Prime Minister Chretien is staying in office for the next 18 months because he has a number of policy initiatives that he wants to get done that will be good for the country", compared to 42% who say "that he is just hanging on to power for 18 more months in order to specifically frustrate the leadership aspirations of former Finance Minister Paul Martin". Just over one in ten (12%) indicate they "don't know" regarding this issue.

• Decided Liberal (66%) supporters are more likely to indicate they believe the Prime Minister wants to remain in office the 18 months because he has a number of policy initiatives that he wants to get done what will be good for the country. This compares to 28% of decided Liberals supporters who say the Prime Minister just wants to frustrated Paul Martin.
• Younger (59%) and middle aged (47%) Canadians are more likely than older (29%) Canadians to express belief in Mr. Chretien rationale for staying on till February 2004, while older (58%) Canadians are more likely than their middle aged (43%) or younger (29%) counterparts to believe that the Prime Minister is specifically trying to frustrate the leadership aspirations of his rival, former Minister of Finance, Paul Martin.
• Canadians in middle income (55%) households are more likely to accept the Prime Ministers motivation than are those in lower income (42%) households, while those in the highest income (49%) income households are more likely than those in middle income (37%) households to believe the motivation is to frustrate Paul Martin's leadership desires.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between August 23rd and August 24th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 500 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadians population been polled. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. Due to a composite country sample size, there are no regional breaks.

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900