Canadians Assess The Performance Of The Minority Conservative Government Under Prime Minister Stephen Harper

Toronto, ON - As Parliament prepares for its return on September 18, 2006, a new public opinion poll indicates that if an election were held tomorrow, the Minority Conservative government under the leadership of Prime Minister Stephen Harper would garner the support of 38% of national voters (down 1 point from a late July poll and down 5 points from mid-May) with the still leaderless Liberals (29%, +2 points) and the NDP (17%, unchanged) trailing. The Green Party of Canada elicits 5% of the national vote (-2 points) -- with this release coming on the heels of the party's convention where former Sierra Club activist and lawyer Elizabeth May was chosen as its new national leader.(with the data collected for this poll having been completed just prior to the Green Party Leadership Convention)

What is important to note about this latest poll is that despite almost 8 elected and 7 months in power and facing a leaderless Liberal party with its own issues to contend with, the Minority Conservative government and all of the other opposition parties are almost right back where they were in terms of national voter support on Election Day, January 23, 2006, making the government's quest for a majority in parliament appear volatile and elusive. [For the three major national parties on Election Day, the Conservative Party garnered 36.25% of the national vote followed by the Liberals at 30.2%, the New Democratic Party at 17.5%. In Quйbec, the Bloc Quйbйcois emerged with 42.1% of the popular vote followed by the Conservatives at 24.6% and the Liberals at 20.7%.]

And if building the fortunes of the Conservative Party in the province of Quйbec was viewed by many Conservatives as the gateway to a majority then the latest pulse of voters in Quйbec will be sobering indeed showing that the Conservatives have dropped from a post-election honeymoon high of 34% in February to 22% now (-5 points since July) - representing a full 12 point fall in approximately 7 months when issues such as the government's support of Israel in the recent middle east conflict and Canada's troop deployment in Afghanistan have not been popular in the province.

Conversely, the Bloc Quebecois appear resilient at 43% of the vote (up 7 points since February and +2 points since the last sounding in July) and has a broad lead over both the Conservatives (22%, -5 points) and the Liberals (19%, -2 points).

The poll also asked Canadians to rate the various directions and policies of the new government (all of which follow in greater detail in this release). And if there is better news for Conservative supporters than the vote numbers above, it can be found in these where on almost every measure at least 45%, and often a good majority, of Canadians support the government. So, paradoxically, the Harper government appears to have a fairly good "air cover" support of its policies in directions but not so much political traction on the ground. It does mean, however, that the government's vote numbers have room to grow.

Again, it's instructive to examine the differences between the rest of the country and Quйbec support for the Harper government's directions and policies are much lower and may be evidence for the corresponding deteriorating voter support in that province:

• 57% of Canadians (-2 points from May) overall, think the government has Canada on the "right track" (just 45% think this way in Quebec, -24 points);
• 54% of Canadians feel the government has the "right priorities" for Canada (just 45% of Quebecois feel this way); and
• 67% of Canadians approve of the government's "making major expenditures to equip our armed forces" (versus just 47% in the province of Quebec);
• Half (49%) of Canadians approve of the way the government has formed a "closer relationship with the American administration" (37% feel this way in the province of Quebec);
• 48% of Canadians approve of the government's "extending Canada's military commitment to the NATO mission in Afghanistan" (38% of Quebecois approve);
• 45% of Canadians approve of the government "supporting Israel in the latest Mid-East conflict" (only 29% of those in Quebec approve of this).

However, Conservatives who fret about Quйbec voters will note that despite these differences and lower marks, when asked to rate the government on two overall categories, the totals are individually more than the voter support which suggests room to grow -- 58% of those in the province believe that the Conservatives are doing a "good job" and 45% believe that the Harper government is on the "right track".

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from August 22-24th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1002 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The Federal Vote: Conservatives Continue Slow Slide Since The Peak Of The Honeymoon In May, But Still Maintain Lead...

Among all Canadians, 8% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or don't know.

• Conservative support is down in Quebec (-5%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-4%).
• Liberal Support is up in Quebec (+5%) and British Columbia (+11%).

Full regional tables showing voter movement are located at the end of this factum report.

Government's "Right Track" Rating Remains Relatively Stable At 57% (-2%)...

Currently, six in ten (57%) Canadians, overall, think the Stephen Harper government has Canada on the "right track" versus 39% who feel they have it on the "wrong track" -essentially unchanged on the national level since early May 2006.

However, these sentiments have declined very sharply in Quebec (-24%) [45% now compared to 69%] since early May.

And, Six In Ten (60%) Feel Government is Doing A "Good Job"...

Six in ten (60%) feel, overall, that the Stephen Harper government is doing a "good job" versus 36% who feel they are doing a "bad job" [This is the first time that this question has been asked during the term of this government.]

• Albertans (82%) are the most likely to say they are doing a "good job", followed distantly by residents of Atlantic Canada (67%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (64%).
• Residents of Ontario (41%) and British Columbia (38%) are the most likely to say they are doing a "bad job".
• In Quйbec, 58% believe that the government is doing a "good job" compared with 37% who believe that they are doing a "bad job".

Fifty-four Percent Feel Government Has The Right Priorities For Canada...

Fifty-four percent of Canadians feel that the Stephen Harper government has "the right priorities" for Canada while 41% feel it has the "wrong priorities".

• Albertans (81%) are the most likely to say they have the "right priorities", followed by Atlantic Canada (59%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (56%), Ontario 53%, BC (48%), and Quйbec (45%).
• Residents of Quebec (48%) and British Columbia (46%) are the most likely to say the government has the "wrong priorities", followed Ontario (42%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (38%), Atlantic Canada (33%), and Alberta (15%).

Alberta Is The Only Province Where Most Believe The Harper Government Is More Clean, Honest, Transparent And Accountable Than Previous Administrations...

Canadians are split on what type of character this government has when it comes to previous administrations. Half (50%) of Canadians believe that the Stephen Harper government is "no better than previous governments who say they will clean up the system but really don't and instead just support their friends and their own ambitions, often in secret deals".

Conversely, 45% of Canadians believe that the new government is, "overall, a more clean, honest and transparent and accountable government compared to previous administrations".

Only one province - Alberta (65%) -- has a majority of its residents believing that the Harper government is more clean, honest, transparent and accountable than previous administrations-- followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%), Quйbec (45%), Ontario (44%), Atlantic Canada (43%) and BC (36%). As for those Canadians (50%) who believe the government is no different than previous administrations who say they will clean up the system but really don't, BC (58%) leads the rest of the provinces followed by Atlantic Canada (53%), and Quйbec (52%), Ontario (51%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (47%) and Alberta (27%).

Government Approval By Issues

Regional Policy Approval/Disapproval Findings:

• For actions taken in making sure Canadians have lessened wait times for access to health care services -Nationally Approve 70%: Alberta [75%], Ontario [72%], Atlantic Canada [71%], Quйbec [70%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [65%] and BC [60%] ; Nationally Disapprove 26% : BC [35%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [30%] Atlantic Canada [25%] Ontario [25%], Quйbec [24%], and Alberta [19%].
• Managing the economy and the government's finances - Nationally Approve 68%: Alberta [86%], Quйbec [67%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [67%], Ontario [66%], BC [66%] and Atlantic Canada [65%]; Nationally Disapprove 27%: BC [30%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [30%], Ontario [29%], Quйbec [28%], Atlantic Canada [28%] and Alberta [11%].
• Making major expenditures to equip our armed forces -- Nationally Approve : Alberta [83%], Atlantic Canada [75%], Ontario [73%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [72%] B.C. [70%] and Quйbec [47%]; Nationally Disapprove 31%: Quйbec [52%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [28%], B.C. [26%], Ontario [25%], Atlantic Canada [23%] and Alberta [11%].
• For the level of accountability and transparency that they have enacted since taking office -- Nationally Approve 64%: Alberta [85%], Quйbec [67%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [65%], Ontario [62%], Atlantic Canada [61%] and B.C. [55%]; Nationally Disapprove 30%: B.C. [40%], Atlantic Canada [32%], Ontario [32%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [32%], Quйbec [27%] and Alberta [12%].
• For providing $100 per month cash for every child eligible for day care instead of a national day care program -- Nationally Approve 51%: Alberta [69%], Atlantic Canada [54%], BC [52%], Quйbec [50%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [51%] and Ontario [47%]; Nationally Disapprove 46% ; Ontario [52%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [40%], Quйbec [46%], BC [45%], Atlantic Canada [43%] and Alberta [28%] .
• For forming the closer relationship that has been forged with President George Bush in the American administration than the previous Liberal governments -- Nationally Approve 49%: Alberta [71%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [53%], Ontario [51%], Atlantic Canada [51%], BC [43%] and Quйbec [37%]; Nationally Disapprove 49%: Quйbec [60%], BC [55%], Ontario, [48%] Atlantic Canada [44%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [44%] and Alberta [27%].
• Withdrawing from the provisions of the Kyoto accord in order to make a more tailored environmental Canadian policy that suits our country -nationally approve 48%: Alberta [71%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [54%], BC [54%], Ontario [48%], Atlantic Canada [48%] and Quйbec [36%]; Nationally Disapprove 45%: Quйbec [60%], Atlantic Canada [44%], Ontario [43%], /1/Manitoba [41%), BC [41%] and Alberta [24%].
• For extending Canada's military commitment to the NATO mission in Afghanistan until 2009 -- Nationally Approve 40%: Alberta [63%], Atlantic Canada [52%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [50%], Ontario [49%], BC[48%], and Quйbec [38%]; Nationally Disapprove 50%: Quйbec [59%], Ontario [49%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [49%], BC [48%], Atlantic Canada [45%] and Alberta [35%].
• For supporting Israel in the latest middle-aged conflict -- Nationally Approve 45%: Alberta [63%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [60%], Ontario [48%], Atlantic Canada [46%], BC [43%] and Quйbec [29%]; Nationally Disapprove 50%: Quйbec [66%], Ontario [49%], BC [49%], Atlantic Canada [43%], Saskatchewan/Manitoba [39%] and Alberta [34%].

All other demographics are to be found on the attached detailed tables.

Regional Vote Intention Results

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900
[email protected]

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