Decided Liberal Voters Most Likely to Say They Will Vote to Ensure Another Party Does Not Win Election

Around half of decided voters continue to say they are “absolutely” certain of their vote choice, higher among Conservative voters (59%) compared to Liberal voters (54%) and NDP voters (38%). Just under one in five (16%) say their vote choice has changed in the last four weeks. The Liberal (22%) and NDP parties (22%) gained the most momentum from vote switching, with nearly one in four of their voters having switched from another party, whereas only 8% of current Tory voters changed from another party. Fewer than one in ten (7%) also say their vote choice would change if Trump’s tariffs are no longer a concern,  higher among NDP voters (19%) than Liberals (8%) or Tories (5%).

When asked for the main reason informing their vote, Canadians overall are most likely to say their vote is for the party they like best (53%), which is a view held more strongly among Conservative voters (57%) compared to Liberal or NDP voters. Liberal voters are more likely than others to say they want to make sure another party does not win, while NDP voters are more likely than others to say they want to express disgust with all of the other parties – the protest vote. 

Moreover, when asked about the primary factor determining how they will cast their ballot on Election Day, Canadians overall are most likely to say the party’s stance on issues (47%) followed by the party and leader (43%) are the driving factors, with just 10% saying it will be because of their local candidate. 

Liberal voters are far and away most likely to say the party’s leader is the main factor (51% vs. 37% Conservatives, 33% NDP), while Conservative voters are most likely to say their party’s stance on the issues is most important to them (52% vs. 47% NDP, 44% Liberals).
 

Canadians are aligned that the upcoming federal election will be important for plotting Canada’s future during uncertain times. Most say they will vote for the candidate they believe in, high among both Conservative voters (90%) and Liberal voters (88%), and lower among NDP voters (82%). Most Canadians also hope that this election is one which will keep the country from going back to the polls for awhile. 

As far as the impact of the campaign on vote preferences, campaign announcements made by leaders are more likely to have solidified (57%) an already established vote choice than changed it (26%).  Liberal (67%) and Conservative (66%) voters are more likely than NDP voters (42%) to agree that campaign announcements have solidified their vote.

Vote consideration gives us an idea of how votes might shift in the coming weeks. The largest share of voters are strongly considering voting Liberal (48%), while fewer would seriously consider voting Conservative (31%), NDP (18%), Green (12%), or PPC (5%). Three in ten (29%) Quebecers would strongly consider voting Bloc.

Although the Liberal retains a strong lead, 5% of its supporters might vote for the Conservatives and 19% are considering the NDP. In contrast, current Conservative voters show more loyalty, with just 6% contemplating a switch to the Liberals and 3% to the NDP.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 1st and 3rd, 2025, on behalf of Global News.  For this survey, a sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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