Decision Canada: After The First Week Of The Campaign

Toronto, ON - According to the latest CanWest News Service/Global News survey conducted by Ipsos Reid, the two leading federal parties are racing neck-and-neck at this point in the election campaign. If a federal election were held tomorrow, 33% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the federal Liberals (+2 points from a November 29th poll), 31% would vote Conservative (unchanged), 17% would vote NDP (-1 point), and 5% would vote for the Green Party (unchanged). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is at 57% (-1 point) versus 26% support for the federal Liberals (+2 point).

And while the battle for national vote support is very tight, trending suggests that Canadians are becoming more and more receptive to the idea of a Conservative minority government. Currently 45% of Canadians (+3 points from last week's survey, and +6 points from a survey conducted two weeks ago) agree they are "comfortable voting for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives to form the government after this election because we'll probably have another minority which will keep them in check".

Further, a majority of Canadians (61%, -1 point from the last sounding) are of the opinion that the Liberal Party does not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for another political party to be given a chance to govern the country. And most Canadians (56%, -5 points from May 2004) agree that the "federal Liberal Party is fundamentally corrupt and does not deserve to be re-elected".

However, many Canadians seem unwilling to accept Stephen Harper as their next potential Prime Minister. Over half (55%) of Canadians agree with the statement that "Stephen Harper is just too extreme to be Canada's Prime Minister" (30% strongly agree) - up 9 points from a survey conducted in June of 2004 just before the federal election. And more choose Paul Martin (39%) over Stephen Harper (31%) as the candidate they think would make the best Prime Minister of Canada.

Perhaps bolstering the Liberal campaign, is the fact that 45% of Canadians say that "since Justice Gomery absolved Prime Minister Martin of any blame in his report, I will not be thinking about the sponsorship scandal when I decide who to vote for in this federal election".

When it comes to the potential outcomes of the next election, one-third of Canadians (32%) say they would prefer a minority government after this election, but most (65%) say they would like a majority.

If faced with a minority government, a Liberal-led minority government supported by the NDP (53%) or a Conservative-led minority government supported by the NDP (53%) are the two most acceptable choices for Canadians.

But, regardless of whom they are supporting, most (62%) believe that the Liberals will win the next election.

For Greater Toronto Area (GTA) subsection findings, please refer to last pages of report.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from November 29th to December 1st 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2,450 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1772.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900