Despite Debate Kudos For Harper And Lead In Polls, Seat Landscape Remains Static

Toronto, ON - Despite the hardly fought televised leadership debates that took place earlier this week, the federal election landscape remains essentially static, according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released tonight.

The Liberal Party has reached it's lowest point in decided vote support levels since the writ drop, coming in with 29% of the decided vote (down 2 points since June 13th, 2004). The Conservative Party, meanwhile, has maintained their decided vote support at 32% (unchanged). In the pivotal province of Ontario, the Conservatives (38%, up 2 points) and the Liberals (34%, unchanged) continue to battle in a close contest.

Nationally, the New Democratic Party (16%, down 1 point) and the Green Party (7%, up 1 point) continue to hold steady in this poll. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (48%, unchanged) hold a 26 point lead over the Liberal Party (22%, down 6 points).

An exclusive seat model prepared by Ipsos-Reid for the Globe and Mail and CTV shows minimal change from the last sounding. If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would take a potential 125-129 seats, the Liberals would take a potential 92-96 seats, the NDP a potential 20-24 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois a potential 63-67 seats.

When considering gap momentum scores (calculated by subtracting the percentage who say their opinion of the party and leader has worsened over the last few weeks from the percentage who say their opinion has improved over the past few weeks), Stephen Harper leads all other major party leaders (+19, unchanged), with Jack Layton trailing closely (+16, down 2 points). Paul Martin continues to register negative momentum (-30, down 5 points). In Quebec, Gilles Duceppe has strong positive momentum, with a score of +23 (up 2 points).

Stephen Harper's momentum can perhaps be partially attributed to his strong showing in the leadership debates. Among those Canadians who watched the debate, three in ten (31%) point to Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, as the `winner' of the debate, while 16% point to Paul Martin, leader of the Federal Liberal Party, and 8% point to Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic Party, as the winners of the debate. In Quebec, six in ten (59%) of those who watched the debate point to Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois, as the winner of the debate (nationally, Mr. Duceppe is picked as the debate winner by 20% of those who watched the debate).

Despite his comparatively poor performance in the debate, when putting aside their political inclinations, four in ten Canadians (38%, unchanged from the last sounding on June 8th, 2004) continue to choose Paul Martin as the "major federal party leader they think will make the best Prime Minister of Canada". Three in ten Canadians (28%, down 2 points) choose Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, as the candidate who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, and 14% choose Jack Layton (unchanged). In Quebec, 19% choose Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois, as the candidate that would make the best Prime Minister of Canada (down 1 point).

Among all eligible voters in Canada, six in ten (64%, up 1 point) are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the up-coming federal election, while 24% are likely to vote (15% "very likely", 9% "somewhat likely"), and 11% are not likely to vote (3% "not very likely", 8% "not likely at all").

One in five Canadians (21%, down 6 points) say that they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party on Election Day (15% "somewhat likely", 7% "very likely").

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted from June 16th to June 17th, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001Census data. Conservative Party (32%) And Liberal Party (29%) Continue Tight Battle, With NDP (16%) Trailing... Bloc Quebecois (48% In Quebec Vs. 22% Liberals)...

If a federal election were held tomorrow, Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party would garner 32% of the decided vote (unchanged), while Paul Martin and the Liberal Party would garner 29% of the decided vote (down 2 points). Meanwhile, Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party (16%, down 1 point) and Jim Harris and the Green Party (7%, up 1 point) hold steady in this most recent national poll, while 4% of decided voters would cast their support for some "other" party.

In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attracts 48% of decided votes (unchanged), leading the Liberals (22%, down 6 points) by 26 points in this province.

Among all Canadians, 11% are undecided or would not vote if an election were held tomorrow.

• The Conservatives have 38% of decided voter's support (up 2 points) in Ontario, while the Liberals have 34% of decided voter's support (unchanged). The NDP trail further behind the pack with 18% of the decided vote (down 4 points), and the Green Party follows distantly with the support of 6% (up 2 points).

• In Quebec, a 26 point margin separates the Bloc Quebecois (48%, unchanged) from the Liberals (22%, down 6 points). The Conservatives (13%, up 2 points) the NDP (9%, up 2 points), and the Green Party (7%, up 2 points) register lower on the federal radar screen in this province.

• In British Columbia, the Conservatives (34%, down 3 points) are essentially tied with the Liberals (32%, up 5 points), while the NDP trails the pack with 21% of the decided vote (down 2 points). The Green Party has 7% of the decided votes in this province (down 5 points).

• In Alberta, the Conservatives (59%, up 6 points) hold a 42 point lead over the Liberals (17%, down 10 points). The NDP trails far behind with 11% of the decided vote (down 1 point), and the Green Party with 7% (unchanged).

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Conservatives (36%, down 20 points) lead, while the NDP (29%, up 13 points) and the Liberals (28%, up 7 points) follow closely. The Green Party attracts 4% of the decided vote (unchanged).

• In Atlantic Canada the Liberals hold a commanding 21 point lead with 43% of the decided vote (down 1 point), as the Conservatives (22%, down 5 points) and the NDP (21%, down 3 points) trail. The Green Party attracts 10% of decided voter support (up 5 points).

Stephen Harper (+19) And Jack Layton (+16) Continue To Lead With Strong Positive Momentum -- Paul Martin (-30) Continues To Move In A Negative Direction... In Quebec, Gilles Duceppe Scores +23...

Canadians were asked whether their opinions of the various major parties and their leaders has improved, stayed the same, or worsened over the last few weeks:

• One third of Canadians (34%) say their opinion of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party has improved over the last few weeks (10% "strongly improved", 24% "somewhat improved"), 43% say their opinion has "stayed the same", and 15% say their opinion has worsened (8% "somewhat worsened", 7% "strongly worsened"). The remaining 8% of Canadians "don't know" if their opinion has changed.

• Three in ten (29%) say their opinion of Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party has improved over the last few weeks (7% "strongly improved", 22% "somewhat improved"), 47% of Canadians say their opinion has "stayed the same", and 13% say their opinion has worsened (8% "somewhat worsened", 5% "strongly worsened"). The remaining 11% of Canadians "don't know" if their opinion has changed.

• One in ten Canadians (10%) say their opinion of Paul Martin and the Liberal Party has improved over the last few weeks (2% "strongly improved", 8% "somewhat improved"), 45% say that it has "stayed the same", and 40% say it has worsened (19% "strongly worsened", 21% "somewhat worsened"). The remaining 5% of Canadians "don't know" if their opinion has changed.

• In Quebec, one-third (33%) say their opinion of Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois has improved (10% "strongly improved", 23% "somewhat improved"), 48% say their opinion has stayed the same, and 10% say their opinion has worsened (5% "somewhat worsened", 5% "strongly worsened"). The remaining 9% of Quebecers "don't know" if their opinion has changed.

When considering the gap momentum scores (calculated by subtracting the percentage who say their opinion of the party and leader has worsened over the last few weeks from the percentage who say their opinion has improved over the past few weeks) Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party score the highest (+19, unchanged), as Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party (+16, down 2 points) trail closely. Paul Martin and the Liberals continue to have negative momentum, scoring -30 (down 5 points).

In Quebec, Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois score a gap momentum score of +23 (up 2 points).

• Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have the strongest momentum in Alberta (+36, up 15 points), followed by Quebec (+19, down 2 points) and British Columbia (+19, up 3 points), Atlantic Canada (+18, up 11 points), Ontario (+16, down 2 points), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+13, down 14 points). Among decided Conservative supporters, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives score a +58 (down 3 points).

• Jack Layton and the New Democratic Party have the strongest momentum in Atlantic Canada (+21, up 5 points), followed by British Columbia (+19, up 8 points), Alberta (+17, up 14 points), Quebec (+16, down 1 point), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (+14, up 8 points) and Ontario (+14, down 12 points).

• Paul Martin and the federal Liberal Party have negative momentum in every region of the country: Ontario (-25, down 5 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (-29, down 6 points) and British Columbia (-29, down 14 points), Quebec (-33, up 7 points), Alberta (-35, down 7 points), and Atlantic Canada (-36, down 23 points). Among decided Liberal supporters, Paul Martin and the Liberals score a +8 (up 4 points).

• Gilles Duceppe scores a +23 in Quebec (up 2 points), and among Bloc Quebecois decided vote supporters Mr. Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois score +49 (up 10 points).

Stephen Harper (31%) Receives Most Votes For Winner Of Leadership Debate - Paul Martin Trails Distantly (16%)...

Among those Canadians who watched the debate, three in ten (31%) point to Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, as the `winner' of the debate, while 16% point to Paul Martin, leader of the Federal Liberal Party, and 8% point to Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic Party, as the winners of the debate.

In Quebec, six in ten (59%) of those who watched the debate point to Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois, as the winner of the debate (nationally, Mr. Duceppe is picked as the debate winner by 20% of those who watched the debate).

One-quarter (26%) of those who watched the debate believe that nobody won the debate.

Among all Canadians, one-quarter (24%) did not watch the debate, and 5% "don't know" who won the debate.

• Agreement that Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, won the debate is highest in Atlantic Canada (48%), followed by Alberta (45%), Ontario (40%), British Columbia (30%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (30%), and Quebec (7%). Six in ten (63%) decided Conservative supporters believe Stephen Harper won the debate, compared to 25% of decided NDP supporters, 18% of Liberal supporters, and no (0%) Bloc Quebecois supporters.

• Agreement that Paul Martin, leader of the Federal Liberal Party, won the debate is highest in Atlantic Canada (20%) and Alberta (19%), followed by Ontario (16%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (15%), Quebec (14%), and British Columbia (13%). Almost four in ten decided Liberal supporters (37%) believe Paul Martin won the debate, compared to 11% of NDP supporters, 7% of Bloc Quebecois supporters, and 2% of Conservative supporters.

• Agreement that Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic party, won the debate is highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (18%), followed by Ontario (11%), British Columbia (10%), Alberta (8%), Atlantic Canada (6%), and Quebec (1%). One-quarter (26%) of NDP supporters believe Jack Layton won the debate, compared to 5% of Liberal and 5% of Conservative supporters - no Bloc Quebecois supporters thought Jack Layton won the debate.

But, Paul Martin (38%) Still Top Choice As Leader Who Would Make Best P.M. - Harper (28%), Layton (14%), Duceppe (19% In Quebec)...

Four in ten Canadians (38%, unchanged from the last sounding on June 8th, 2004) continue to choose Paul Martin as the "major federal party leader they think will make the best Prime Minister of Canada". Three in ten Canadians (28%, down 2 points) choose Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, as the candidate who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada, and 14% choose Jack Layton (unchanged).

In Quebec, one in five (19%, down 1 point) pick Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc Quebecois, as the candidate that would make the best Prime Minister of Canada.

Among all Canadians, 13% "don't know" who they think would make the best Prime Minister of Canada.

• Agreement that Paul Martin, leader of the Liberal Party, would make the best Prime Minister is highest in Atlantic Canada (48%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (43%), Alberta (39%), British Columbia (37%) and Ontario (37%), and Quebec (36%). Among decided Liberal supporters, 82% believe that Paul Martin would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 21% of Conservative supporters, 20% of Bloc Quebecois supporters, and 19% of NDP supporters.

• Agreement that Stephen Harper, leader of the Conservative Party, would make the best Prime Minister is highest in Alberta (46%), followed by Ontario (30%), British Columbia (28%), Atlantic Canada (27%), Quebec (21%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (19%). Among decided Conservative supporters, 66% believe that Stephen Harper would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 24% of Bloc Quebecois supporters, 12% of NDP supporters, and 7% of Liberal supporters.

• Agreement that Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic Party, would make the best Prime Minister is highest in British Columbia (19%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (16%), Ontario (15%), Quebec (12%), Atlantic Canada (10%), and Alberta (6%). Among decided NDP supporters, 56% believe that Jack Layton would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 10% of Bloc Quebecois supporters, 5% of Liberal supporters, and 4% of Conservative supporters.

• Among Bloc Quebecois supporters, 36% believe Gilles Duceppe would make the best Prime Minister, compared to 6% of NDP supporters, 3% of Conservative supporters, and 2% of Liberal supporters.

Most Canadians (64%) Absolutely Certain They Will Vote in Up-Coming Federal Election...

When thinking of the up-coming federal election, most Canadians (64%, up 1 point) are "absolutely certain" they will vote. This compares to 24% who say they are likely to vote (15% "very likely", 9% "somewhat likely"), and 11% who say they are not likely to vote (3% "not very likely", 8% "not likely at all"). The remaining 1% of Canadians "don't know" if they will vote in the up-coming federal election.

• Those Canadians most likely to be "absolutely certain" that they will vote in the upcoming federal election are residents of Quebec (68%), followed closely by Alberta (66%), Ontario (63%) and British Columbia (63%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (59%), and Atlantic Canada (57%).

• Three-quarters of NDP supporters (74%), 70% of Conservative supporters, 68% of Bloc Quebecois supporters, and 66% of Liberal supporters are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the up-coming election.

One In Five (21%) Canadians Are Likely To Change Their Mind Before Election Day... When thinking of the party they plan to vote for right now, one in five (21%) Canadians think they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party on Election Day (15% "somewhat likely", 7% "very likely"). This is juxtaposed against 75% of Canadians who think they are not likely to change their vote before Election Day (18% "not very likely", 57% "not likely at all"). The remaining 3% of Canadians "don't know" if they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party or not.

• Those most apt to believe they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party are residents of Alberta (26%), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%), Ontario (22%), Atlantic Canada (20%), Quebec (19%), and British Columbia (18%).

• Those most prone to believe that they are not likely to change their mind and vote for another party are residents of Quebec (78%), followed closely by British Columbia (77%), Ontario (75%) and Atlantic Canada (75%), Alberta (74%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (71%).

• Decided NDP supporters (26%) are the most apt to say that they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party, while 23% of decided Liberal supporters, 17% of decided Conservative supporters, and 11% of decided Bloc Quebecois supporters say they are likely to change their mind and vote for another party on election day.

Seat Projection Model Suggests Conservatives Take 125-129 Seats, Liberals 92-96, NDP 20-24, Bloc Quebecois 63-67 -- If Vote Held Tomorrow...

In an exclusive seat projection model provided to CTV and The Globe and Mail, if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 125-129 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 92-96 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 20-24 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 63-67 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit:http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2197

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, Ph.D
President & C.O.O.
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900