Economic Outlook/Consumer Confidence and the Generations' Perspectives

This poll's appraisal of "generational perspectives" on Canadian consumers' financial circumstances yields a much more pessimistic outlook than prevailed at the end of the '80s. Asked how their generation's financial situation compares to that of their parents' generation at the same stage of life, just less than half of Canadians make a favourable comparison - but this bullish perspective is not at all shared by Canadians under 35 (most of whom feel they are worse off than their parents) and is significantly on the wane among all age groups compared to 1989. Likewise, a solid majority of Canadians now expect the generation younger than their own will be relatively worse off than they themselves are, with this expectation also having increased considerably (21 points) over the past six years.

These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll conducted among a representative cross-section of 1506 Canadian adults between November 20 and 26, 1995.

Canadians' assessment of the current state of the national economy has deteriorated since earlier this fall, with a clear majority now saying it is in poor shape, and pessimists continue to outnumber optimists when it comes to consumers' one-year outlook for the Canadian economy. Closer to home, one in three Canadians are worried that they or someone else in their household is in danger of losing their job, and most expect the coming year to bring more of the same in terms of their personal financial circumstances.

Canadians' Perceptions of How Their Financial Situation Compares to Their Parents' at the Same Stage of Life

Just under one-half (47%) of Canadians surveyed said they believe that their own generation is financially "better off" than their parents' generation was at the same stage of life, compared to fully one in three (35%) who feel they themselves are "worse off" financially than their parents were at the same point in their lives (16% saw essentially no difference). Importantly, the number of Canadians believing they are in better financial shape than their parents were at the same stage in life has declined markedly over the past half decade: this figure was 74 percent in a September 1989 Angus Reid Poll, dropped 18 points to 56 percent in an October 1992 sounding, and has fallen another nine percentage points since then to the current 47 percent; over six years, then, the number of Canadians who feel their generation is better off than their parents' has declined by fully 27 percentage points, while the number who feel their generation is worse off has almost tripled from 13 percent to 35 percent.

The survey results show profound differences across generational lines. Older Canadians in particular (68% of those 55+) as well as a majority (51%) of those in the 35 to 54 age group believe that they are better off financially than their parents were at the same stage of life, although the proportion holding this view within each segment has decreased (by 16 points and 25 points respectively) since six years ago. In rather sharp contrast, most younger Canadians (56% of those between 18 and 34) feel that their generation is worse off financially compared to their parents at the same point in their lives - and this figure has almost tripled from the 20 percent who held this perception back in 1989. Further analysis of these age differences shows that the perception that their own generation is in worse financial shape than their parents' generation at the same stage of life becomes steadily more prevalent with youth: 18 to 24 years old (64% worse off, 26% better off); 25 to 34 (52% versus 31%); 35 to 44 (33% versus 46%); 45 to 54 (28% versus 56%); 55 to 64 (18% versus 66%); and 65-plus (10% versus 70%).

Canadians' Financial Outlook for the Younger Generation

More than six in ten (62%) Canadians surveyed in late November predicted that the generation younger than their own will be "worse off" financially relative to their own generation, as opposed to "better off" (only 12%) or "about the same" (23%). The number of Canadians harbouring the "worse off" outlook for the younger generation's financial well-being has been growing steadily over the past six years - 41 percent in a September 1989 poll, rising to 54 percent three years later and again to 62 percent in the most recent reading, for a total increase of 21 percentage points over the past six years. A majority of Canadians from each generation and from all other major population sub-groupings expect the generation younger than their own to fare less well financially than their own generation.

Canadians' Assessment of the Current State of the National Economy

A clear majority (57%) of Canadians give a "thumbs down" to the overall state of the national economy right now (47% describe it as "poor", 10% as "very poor"), compared to four in ten (41%) who offer a positive appraisal (40% "good", only 1% "very good"). This represents a setback in a trend which had seen the public's assessment of the Canadian economy become slowly but steadily brighter since the beginning of the year: the number of Canadians opting for the "good/very good" characterization increased from 36 percent in January to above the four in ten mark in the March (42%) and May (44%) soundings to 47 percent in the previous reading taken in September, but has dropped by six points over the past two months (to the current 41%).

The Public's Outlook for the Canadian Economy

Canadians continue to be somewhat more likely to believe that the coming year will see the national economy "get worse" (30%) rather than "improve" (24%), although a large plurality (44%) expect that things on this front will "stay about the same" during the next 12 months. Canadian consumers' expectations regarding the performance of the national economy have essentially remained static since the spring, but they compare unfavourably to the outlook in March when optimists outnumbered pessimists by an 8-point margin (33% improve versus 25% get worse).

Canadians' Forecast for Their Provincial Economies

Albertans continue to have the most buoyant mood when it comes to their one-year outlook for their own province's economy - close to one-half (46%) envision better times ahead, more than twice as many (18%) as expect their provincial economy to falter in the coming year. British Columbians are also optimistic (33% improve versus 17% get worse).

This contrasts most sharply with the deteriorated outlook among residents of Atlantic Canada: here, fully 50 percent of those interviewed in late November predicted that their provincial economies will lose steam over the next year or so (up from the 31% who felt this way in May), compared to only about one in ten (13%) who foresaw a rosier scenario. Quebecers are also more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic (31% versus 24%).

Meanwhile, most (56%) residents of Manitoba/Saskatchewan now expect more of the same for their provincial economies for the coming year, with those remaining roughly evenly split. In Ontario, where pessimism has grown since the spring, residents are now almost evenly divided as to whether their provincial economy will improve, stay the same or worsen during the next 12 months (32%, 31% and 35% respectively).

Consumers' Outlook for Their Personal Financial Prospects

More than one-half (57%) of surveyed Canadians said they foresee virtually no change in their own financial circumstances during the course of the coming year. The remainder are fairly divided as to whether their personal economic situation will improve (23% - the lowest level recorded by the Angus Reid Group in 1995) or worsen (19%).

Canadians' "Job Anxiety"

One in three (32%) Canadians surveyed said they are worried that they or someone else in their household may lose their job or be laid off. This figure represents a marginal increase from the 30 percent recorded this summer and the 29 percent measured one year ago, and is hovering around the levels registered in the March 1994 (33%) and September 1993 (35%) readings of this economic measure. "Job anxiety" is most pronounced among residents of Ontario (35%) and Atlantic Canada (34%), least so among British Columbians (24%).

The Survey Questions

• "Generally speaking, how do you think the overall financial circumstances of your generation compare to those of your parents at the same stage in their life? Would you say that people in your generation tend to be better off, worse off, or in about the same financial shape as their parents were at the same stage of life?"
• "And how do you think the generation younger than you will fare financially compared to your generation? Do you think the next generation will be better off, worse off, or in about the same financial shape as your generation?"
• "In terms of the current economic conditions in this country as a whole, how would you describe the overall state of the Canadian economy right now - very good, good, poor, or very poor?"
• "Thinking about the next year or so, do you yourself generally feel that the Canadian economy will improve, stay about the same, or get worse?"
• "Do you think that the provincial economy here in (Province) will improve, stay about the same, or get worse during the coming year?"
• "What about you and your family? Do you feel that your own economic situation will improve, stay about the same, or get worse over the next year?"
• "Are you, or is anyone in your household, worried about losing your job or being laid off?"

This National Angus Reid Poll was conducted by telephone between November 20th and 26th, 1995 among a representative cross-section of 1506 Canadian adults. The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 202; Alberta - 135; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 120; Ontario - 529; Quebec - 400; Atlantic - 120. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data. With a national sample of 1506, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For further information, contact:

Angus Reid
Chairman & CEO
Angus Reid Group
(604) 257-3200

Darrel Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900