Eves' Post-Budget Ontario Tories Up Smartly (40%) Into Virtual Tie As McGuinty's Liberals Fall (42%) And Hampton's NDP (17%) Climb

Healthcare (62%) and Education (51%) Remain Top Issues on Provincial Agenda According to the Public

Toronto, ONTARIO - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB/CFTO poll released today, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (42%, down 5 points since April 2002) and Ernie Eves' Progressive Conservatives (40%, up 3 points since April 2002) are in a virtual tie in support among decided voters. This represents the closest the two rivals have been in expressed support since February 2000. Meanwhile the support for Howard Hampton and the NDP (17%) increases five points to reach their highest level of support since December 1999, but they remain in third place.

While the top parties are virtually tied, a majority (55%) of Ontarians believe that it is time for another party to take over and run the province. Four in ten (41%) indicate that the governing Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

With the recent provincial budget announcement, half (49%) of Ontarians believe that this budget overall is good for the people of Ontario, while one quarter (23%) say that it is bad for residents of Ontario. Almost three in ten (27%) indicate that they `don't know'.

And finally, healthcare (62%) and education (51%) remain the top tier of issues that provincial leaders need to address according to the public. Other issues mentioned as important currently are the environment (17%) and taxes (11%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CFRB/CFTO poll conducted between June 19th and June 26th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

Ontario Liberals (42%) Drop 5 Points in Support to Land in a Virtual Tie with Conservatives (40%; +3 Points), While NDP (17%) Support Picks Up 5 Points

Dalton McGuinty's Liberals (42%) drop five points in support since April 2002, and are now virtually tied with Premier Ernie Eves' Progressive Conservatives (40%), who move up a slight three points since April, among decided voters. This represents the closest the two rival parties have been in expressed support since February 2000. Meanwhile the support for Howard Hampton and the NDP (17%) increases five points to reach their highest level of support since December 1999, but remain in third place.

Across the province the governing Tories now lead in the Southwest (47%) region over the Liberals (39%), and are virtually split in the East (PC's 41%; Liberals 40%) and the `905' Belt (PC's 46%; Liberals 44%), while the Liberals lead outright in the City of Toronto (Liberals 46%; PC's 30%).

• Regionally, Liberal support is consistent across the province with slightly higher support among residents in the City of Toronto (46%) and in the `905' Belt (44%), while slightly less in Hamilton/Niagara (42%), Eastern Ontario (40%), Northern Ontario (40%) and the Southwest (39%).
• Demographically, the Liberals are stronger among younger (52% compared to 30% of older) decided voters and women (45% versus 39% of men).
• The Tories receive their highest levels of support in the Southwest (47%) and the `905' Belt (46%), while their lowest support regionally is found among residents of the City of Toronto (30%).
• Support for the Conservatives is stronger among decided voters 55 years of age and older (51% compared to 32% of those 18 to 34), and among upper income households (41% compared to 33% of lower income households). Men (43%) are slightly more likely to express support for the PC's than women (37%).
• NDP support is highest in Northern Ontario (24%) and the City of Toronto (24%), while it is lowest among residents of the `905' Belt (8%). The party is also slightly more popular with Ontarians in the lower (21%) and middle (19%) income households compared to those in upper income households (14%).

One percent of decided voters would support another party, while 11% of voters would not vote or were undecided.

However, A Majority (55%) Say It Is Time for a Change, While 41% Say Conservatives Deserve To Be Re-Elected

While the top parties are virtually tied in decided support, a majority (55%) of Ontarians believe that it is time for another party to take over and run the province. Four in ten (41%) indicate that the governing Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

• Regionally, those most likely to express the view that another party should take over are located in the City of Toronto (63%), while the least likely are in the `905' Belt (50%) and the Southwestern (49%) region of the province. While support for re-electing the Conservatives is strongest in these two regions (Southwest 46%; `905' Belt 47%), it is lowest in the City of Toronto (33%).
• Women (59% versus 50% of men) are more likely to express the view that change is needed, while men (46%) are more likely than women (36%) to believe that the governing Tories deserve to be re-elected.
• Among age groups, middle aged Ontarians (60% compared to 49% of older Ontarians) are the most likely to indicated that a new party should take over, while younger (43%) and older (43%) Ontarians are the most likely to feel that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.
• There is no statistical difference on this subject across household income groups.
• Among decided voters, 21% of the opposition Liberal supporters say that the governing Conservatives deserve to be re-elected, while 76% feel it is time for a change. This compares to 11% of NDP supporters and 81% of PC voters who indicate that the Conservatives deserves to be re-elected.

These overall results are close to those recorded in October 2001, when 52% indicated that another party should take over, while 43% said that the Conservatives deserved to be re-elected. In a further comparison, in June 1998, one year before the last provincial election, the electorate was split on this topic, with 49% indicating that it was time for another party to take over, and 48% saying that the governing Conservatives deserved to be re-elected.

Half (49%) of Ontarians Believe Recent Provincial Budget Good For People of Province

With the recent provincial budget announcement, a plurality (49%) of Ontarians believe that this budget overall is good for the people of Ontario, while one quarter (23%) say that it is bad for Ontario's residents. Close to three in ten (27%) indicate that they `don't know'.

• Regionally, residents of the `905' Belt (55%) are the most likely to indicate that the recent budget is good for the people of Ontario, while those in the Hamilton/Niagara region (39%) are the least likely to feel this way.
• A higher proportion of older (57%) Ontarians indicate that the budget is good for Ontario's residents, while lower proportions of middle aged (47%) and younger (46%) Ontarians feel this way.
• A higher number of men (53%) than women (46%) say that the budget is good for Ontario's people.
• This view is also shared by a larger proportion of those in upper (53%) and middle (53%) income households than members of lower (39%) income households.

Healthcare (62%) and Education (51%) Remain Top Issues on Provincial Agenda According to the Public

And finally, healthcare (62%) and education (51%) remain the top tier of issues that provincial leaders need to address according to the public. Other issues mentioned as important currently are the environment (17%) and taxes (11%).

• Middle aged (67%) Ontarians are more likely to cite healthcare as a top issue than their younger (57%) counterparts. More women (68% versus 56% of men) also cite healthcare as a top concern, while Ontarians in middle (65%) and upper (66%) income households are more likely than those in lower income households (51%) to believe this to be the case.
• Education is more likely mentioned by Ontarians in upper income households (58% versus 46% in lower income households) and by women (57% versus 44% of men).
• The environment as a top issues is twice as likely to be mentioned by the highest income households (20%) than by the lowest income households (11%).
• Taxes as an important issue is mentioned by a higher proportion of men (15%) than by women (7%).

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900