Federal Election Poll

Chrйtien Still Seen as Best PM (29%) -- Clark Shows Strong Positive Momentum Canadians Divided on Whether the Liberals Deserve to be Re-elected (44% Deserve, 52% Do Not Deserve) 57% of Canadians Say a Majority Government Would be Best for the Country

Toronto, ON -- As the candidates and their parties head into the final days of campaigning a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll shows support for each of the parties is: Liberals - 39%, Alliance - 27%, PCs - 12%, NDP - 10%. 12% of Canadians are undecided.

The poll also shows that the contest remains heavily divided along regional lines with the Alliance clearly ahead of the Liberals in B.C. (48% vs. 28%) and Alberta (57% vs. 20%). In Saskatchewan/Manitoba there is a three-way race between the Alliance (34%), the Liberals (31%) and the NDP ( 25%). The Liberals are leading in Ontario (49% vs. 25% for the Alliance) and in Quйbec are tied with the Bloc at 40%. In the Atlantic provinces the contest is between the Liberals (40%) and the PCs (27%) with the Alliance (15%) in fourth place behind the NDP (17%).

Jean Chrйtien (29%) still maintains his title as the leader which Canadians say would make the best Prime Minister. Joe Clark (25%) has gained four points since November 12, 2000 and has replaced Stockwell Day for second place. Meanwhile, Stockwell Day has fallen to third place (22%) after dropping 4 points since November 12, 2000. Alexa McDonough (7%) and Gilles Duceppe (5%) are both in single digits.

Current results for leader momentum show Joe Clark (+26) with the highest positive momentum and the only leader to have maintained his momentum over the last two weeks. Stockwell Day (-12) and Jean Chrйtien (-38) both have negative momentum while Alexa McDonough (+3) has slight positive momentum. In Quйbec, Gilles Duceppe (+10) has positive momentum.

Overall, a Canadians are divided on whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. 44% say that the Liberals "deserve to be re-elected" while 52% say they "do not deserve to be re-elected".

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between November 17th and November 23rd, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 4102 adult Canadians. The results are accurate to within 177 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian population been surveyed. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Results for questions other than popular support and leader momentum ratings are based on a sample size of 2601 which is considered accurate to within 177 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire Canadian population been surveyed.

Heading Into Election Day, Party Standings: Liberals (39%), Alliance (27%), PCs (12%), NDP (10%)
Heading into the last week of campaigning, the Liberals (39%) have dropped 4 points since the middle of the campaign while the Alliance has held steady at 27%. National support for the Conservatives has risen 4 points since the middle of the campaign (from 8% to 12%) and have established themselves as the clear third choice for Canadians. The NDP has continued to lag behind at 10%, while 12% are undecided.

Regionally, support for each party breaks down as follows:

• In BC, support for the Alliance is at 48% while Liberal support is at 28%. The PCs (9%) have picked up 5 points while support for NDP (12% - up 1 point within the margin of error) is holding relatively steady. Vancouver and the Lower mainland are more likely to support the Liberals (30%) than the rest of the province (26%) and less likely to support the Alliance (43% in the lower mainland vs. 53% in the rest of the province).
• In Alberta, the situation is similar. The Liberals have dropped to 20% while the PC's have risen to 13%. The Alliance is holding steady at 57% as is the NDP at 7%.
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, there is a three-way race on between the Liberals (31%), Alliance (34%) and the NDP (25%). The PCs are far behind at 9%.
• Ontario continues to be painted with Liberal red (49%) while the Alliance has stalled (25%). Joe Clark and the PCs (14%) remain well behind but have gained 4 points in the province since the last poll. The NDP is holding steady with 10%.

While Liberal support is strong throughout the province of Ontario, the race is closer in eastern Ontario where the Liberals (38%) lead the Alliance (32%) by 6 points. This contrasts with Toronto and its suburbs where the Liberal (54%) lead over the Alliance (20%) is 34 points.

• The Liberals (40%) and the Bloc Quйbecois (40%) are in a dead heat for the lead in Canada's second-most populous province, while the Alliance (9%), PCs (7%) and NDP (3%) trail far behind.
• The Atlantic region is the place where the PCs are most competitive (27%) placing second behind the Liberals who lead the region with 40% support. The Alliance (15%) and the NDP (17%) are virtually tied for third place.

Most Canadians (85%) say they are either "absolutely certain" (61%) or "very likely" (23%) to vote in Monday's election. Support for both the Liberals and the Alliance is very firm. 81% of Liberal supporters and 85% of Alliance supporters say they are certain who they will vote for on election day. Approximately 75% of those who support the NDP, PCs and Bloc say they are certain about their votes.

When it comes to which of the three following factors: a party's stand on the issues, the party leader or the quality of individual candidates is most important to Canadians in making up their minds, almost half (48%) say the party's stand on the issues is the most important. For a quarter (27%) of Canadians the ability of party leaders is the most important consideration, while one in five (23%) say the qualities of individual candidates in their constituencies is the most important consideration.

Chrйtien Still Seen as Best PM (29%) -- Clark Shows Strong Positive Momentum
Throughout the campaign Ipsos-Reid has tracked the momentum scores (the difference between the percentage who say their opinion has "improved" minus the percentage who say their opinion has "worsened") of each of the parties and their leaders. The tracking reveals two very interesting trends since the early campaign poll conducted on November 2, 2000. As the campaign has progressed, Joe Clark and the PCs' momentum has swung from neutral (+4) to very positive (+26). This represents a 22 point increase in momentum. The opposite is true for Stockwell Day and the Alliance who have seen their momentum drop 25 points, turning strong positive momentum (+13) into strong negative momentum (-12) as the campaign wore on. Throughout the campaign momentum for Jean Chrйtien and the Liberals has been slipping slightly from -27 at the beginning of the campaign to -38 in the current poll. Momentum for Alexa McDonough and the NDP has remained relatively constant throughout the campaign and is currently at +3. At +10 Gilles Duceppe has moderately positive momentum but has dropped in the last twelve days.

Canadians (29%) still say that among the party leaders Jean Chrйtien, would make the best Prime Minister. Joe Clark (25%) has risen 4 points and has replaced Stockwell Day for second place. Meanwhile, Stockwell Day has dropped 4 points and has fallen into third place. Alexa McDonough (7%) and Gilles Duceppe (5%) are both in single digits.

Canadians Divided on Whether the Liberals Deserve to be Re-elected (44% Deserve, 52% Do Not Deserve)
Canadians are divided on the issue of whether or not the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. A slim majority (52%) say that the Liberals "do not deserve to be re-elected" while a similar number 44% say the Liberals 'deserve to be re-elected. 4% say they 'don't know".

57% of Canadians Say a Majority Government Would be Best for the Country On the issue of whether Canadians think a majority or a minority government would be best for the country, 57% of Canadians say a majority would be best for the country while only 39% say a minority would be best. 3% are unsure.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900

For full tables, please download PDF at top of page.