The Federal Political Scene

With the election call expected in a matter of days, the Chretien Liberals are holding steady in popular support nationally, with some interesting regional contests shaping up.

These findings emerged from a National Angus Reid Poll taken among a representative cross-section of 1,513 Canadian adults between April 16th and 22nd, 1997.

Party Standings

The Chretien Liberals are currently holding 42 percent of the decided vote, one point over the level of support they received in the October 1993 election. This is a single point higher than last month, halting what had been a steady decline in Liberal support - from 57 percent last summer,to 52 percent last fall, to 45 percent in January, down to 41 percent last month. The Charest Conservatives are at 18 percent nationally, and Preston Manning's Reform party is at 16 percent,one point back from last month but still five points up over the beginning of the year. The New Democrats are now at 11 percent and the Bloc Quebecois is at 13 percent nationally (49% in Quebec). (Table 1A) (A total of 14% of those surveyed were undecided/refused or said they would not vote in a federal election, a figure that was 19% before a follow-up leaning question.)

An interesting "battle for the regions" is shaping up: (Table 1B)

• B.C. continues to look competitive: after a dead heat last month, the Liberals have edged back up to 41 percent in this poll against Reform's 33 percent. The NDP are at 13 percent in B.C. and the Conservatives are at 10 percent. Alberta is also looking very competitive: the Liberals have edged up here to 36 percent of the decided vote against 29 percent for Preston Manning's Reform party (virtually half of the support Reform won in Alberta in 1993). Alberta is also a good region for the Conservatives who remain up at 27 percent. The NDP is at 8 percent here.
• The Liberals look good in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, having bounced up to 52 percent in this poll (from the 40 percent range in the last few months). The NDP and Reform are battling it out for second place (at 20% and 19% respectively), while the Tories have slipped to 9 percent across these two provinces.
• Ontario, with its motherlode of seats, remains Liberal turf, although this latest poll shows them at 46 percent here now, down from 53 percent the last couple of months and from as high as 67 percent last summer. The Conservatives are running second in Ontario with 25 percent of the decided vote, against 17 percent for Reform (showing an upward trend) and 11 percent for the NDP.
• Quebec is still Bloc country: this latest Angus Reid/Southam News Poll shows the Bloc Quebecois under Gilles Duceppe holding 49 percent of the decided Quebec vote, the same as their actual 1993 showing. The Chretien Liberals remain at 36 percent, three points up from 1993 but down from earlier in this mandate. The Charest Conservatives are at 9 percent in Quebec, the NDP at 4 percent and Reform at 1 percent.
• In the Atlantic region, the Liberals are at 42 percent (well back from "honeymoon" levels and from the 57% they received in 1993), while the Conservatives and NDP battle it out for second place (25% and 23% respectively). Reform is at 9 percent in this region. (Table 1B)

Liberals on Right Track

Some of the best news for the Liberals is the poll finding that by a margin of almost two to one(59% to 33%), Canadian voters believe the federal Liberal government is "on the right track in terms of the overall direction in which they have been leading the country". This is consistent with the electorate's earlier assessments of the Liberals' performance. Outside Quebec, the endorsement is louder (64% right track versus 28% wrong track), while Quebecers remain evenly divided (45% versus 47%) in their overall appraisal of the Chretien Liberal government.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802

Bob Richardson
Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900