Federal Political Scene - JULY 2001

Toronto, ON - As Alliance leader Stockwell Day ponders his future as leader of the Alliance party, a new Globe and Mail/CTV/Ipsos-Reid poll shows that the embattled leader has only the approval of 16 percent of the Canadian population. Mr. Day's disapproval rating, at 73 percent nationally, is highest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (79%), followed by Ontario (78%), BC (77%), Atlantic Canada (73%), Alberta (71%) and Quebec (62%). Even those who indicate that they would vote for the Alliance party (10%) if a Federal election were held tomorrow are less than supportive: only 48 percent of Alliance voters say they approve of the leader's performance versus another 48 percent who disapprove. And, when it comes to how a Federal election would tally if it were held tomorrow, the Liberals have a commanding lead with 48 percent of the committed vote, followed by the PCs (21%), the BQ (10%), the Canadian Alliance (10%) and the NDP (9%).

In fact, to emphasize the negative fallout from Stockwell Day's leadership, the Alliance is running in third place in "ground zero" Alberta with only 24 percent. The Liberals lead the Alliance by 9 percentage points (33%) and the PCs lead them by 12 percentage points (36%).

These are some of the findings of a Globe and Mail/CTV/Ipsos-Reid poll conducted between July 4th and July 8th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual adult Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Only 16% Of Canadians Approve Of Stockwell Day's Performance As Leader Of The Official Opposition Canadian Alliance Party

As noted above, Stockwell Day has a disapproval rating among Canadians of 73% with only 16% giving a "thumbs up" to his leadership (11% are undecided). While Mr. Day's approval ratings now appear to be mortally wounded, others are doing much better.

PC leader Joe Clark now has the highest approval ratings of any leader in the country at 60% --capturing a majority approval in every province. He is followed by Prime Minister Chretien at 55%, NDP leader Alexa McDonough at 43%, and Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe at 30% nationally, 48% in Quebec. In fact, Mr. Clark has the performance approval of 44% of decided Alliance supporters compared to 48% who approve Stockwell Day.

But, Leading The Performance Approval Poll Doesn't Translate into Leading Decided Voters

While PC leader Joe Clark tops the leader approval poll, his party does not top the decided voter intentions. This is where the Liberals continue to have a commanding lead. If an election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would take 48 percent of the decided vote nationally-- and take the lion's share of votes in each of the following regions: 55 percent in Atlantic Canada, 53 percent in Ontario, 47 percent in BC, 45 percent in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and 43 percent in Quebec. The only place the Liberals lag is in Alberta at 33 percent, just 3 percentage points back of the PCs (36%), but well ahead of the Canadian Alliance who now sit at 24 percent support at ground zero.

The PCs would take 21 percent of the decided vote -with highest support in Alberta (36%), followed by Atlantic Canada (27%), Ontario (25%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (25%), and BC (14%). The NDP sits at 9 percent of the national vote with its highest sounding in Saskatchewan/Manitoba at 14 percent. And the Bloc Quebecois is at 10 percent nationally, or 41% support in Quebec, which is 2 percentage points back of the governing Liberals (43%).

But it is the Alliance party which continues to be the focus of attention as it hovers at only 10 percent support among decided voters. Support, as noted above, is highest in Alberta (24%), followed then by BC (19%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (16%), Ontario (9%), Atlantic Canada (7%) and finally, Quebec at 2%.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900