Federal Political Scene - Late May 2001

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll released today shows that support for the Canadian Alliance (11%) continues to fall in the wake of turmoil surrounding the party and its leader, dropping another 2 points (from 13% in April 2001) behind the Progressive Conservatives (17%). Popular support for the Canadian Alliance is now on par with the NDP (10%) and Bloc Quйbecois (10%), while the Liberals (50%) continue to be the top choice.

As well, half (50%) of Canadians say that Stockwell Day should resign immediately, but 40 percent say that the Canadian Alliance leader should hang in until the next party convention. And, among decided Canadian Alliance voters, 66 percent say that Stockwell Day should stay on as leader until the next party convention, compared to 28 percent who say that he should resign immediately.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV poll conducted between May 23rd and May 27th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Support for the Canadian Alliance has dropped in all regions of the country, with the notable exception of the Prairie provinces. Support for the Alliance in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (24%) has actually increased 8 points from 16 percent in April 2001. Albertans' support for the Alliance has dropped the most, falling 8 points from 39 percent in April 2001 to 31 percent, while support in British Columbia has fallen 5 points (from 25% to 20%) over the same period. Support for the Alliance is down consistently in the rest of the country, falling 2 percent in each of Quebec (from 4% to 2%), Atlantic Canada (from 7% to 5%) and Ontario (from 10% to 8%). In fact, Alliance support in Ontario has plummeted a full 20 points from a high of 28 percent in early October 2000.

While the Liberals and NDP were the main beneficiaries of the Canadian Alliance's support when it dropped in April, the Tories appear to have taken up some western Alliance support in May. Since April, support for the Progressive Conservatives has increased 3 points in British Columbia (from 11% to 14%) and Alberta (from 26% to 29%). However, the Liberals have increased their support in Atlantic Canada by 9 points from 52 percent to 61 percent and in Saskatchewan/Manitoba by 3 points from 37 percent to 40 percent, and command 60 percent of the decided vote in Ontario. The NDP have increased their support in Alberta by 4 points to 8 percent.

Further, half (50%) of Canadians (51% of decided voters) say that Stockwell Day should resign immediately as party leader, while 40 percent say that the Canadian Alliance leader should stay on until the next party convention. Among decided Canadian Alliance voters, 66 percent say that Stockwell Day should stay on as leader until the next party convention, compared to 28 percent who say that he should resign immediately.

• Canadians aged 35 to 54 (54%) are slightly more likely than those 55+ (49%) or 18 to 34 (46%) to say that Stockwell Day should resign immediately.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900