Federal Political Trends

The latest National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll shows no significant change in the federal party standings since the last sounding a few weeks ago: the Chretien Liberals remain below the 50 percent mark but are still way out in front, and the Conservatives are maintaining an edge among the opposition parties. The poll was conducted among a representative cross-section of 1,504 Canadian adults between December 9th and 15th, 1996, in the midst of the controversy surrounding Prime Minister Chretien's position on the GST promise.

The poll highlights on the federal parties' current popular support include:

This December poll shows the federal Liberals holding the support of 46 percent of decided voters -- this still gives them a huge lead over the rest of the field and is 5 points ahead of their 1993 election showing, but it is the lowest level the Liberals have been at in the Angus Reid Poll since that election (they had hit 49% last December and 47% late last month), and is 6 points back from their standing in October.

The Jean Charest Conservatives are at 16 percent of the decided vote nationally, a marginal dip from last month, putting them on par with their support level in the 1993 election.

The Reform party has edged up 3 points back to their October support level of 14 percent -- still 5 points lower than their election day support. The New Democrats remain at 11 percent in this sounding, on par with November's post-election high in Angus Reid Polling.

The Bloc Quebecois also remains at 11 percent nationally, 45 percent in Quebec. (Across English-speaking Canada, the party standings are: Liberals 49%, Conservatives 18%, Reform 18%, NDP 14%, and all others 2%).

(This latest poll shows 16% of voters are undecided/refused or not intending to vote in a federal election, a figure which was 26% before a follow-up "leaners" question was asked -- this is a slightly higher level of indecision than has been observed in recent months.) (Table 1)

The Liberals remain strongest in Ontario with 56 percent of the decided vote. They continue to enjoy a good lead in B.C. (where Reform runs second), Manitoba-Saskatchewan (where the NDP are in second) and the Atlantic region (the Conservatives run second here).

The contest remains most competitive for the Liberals in Alberta (tied with Reform thanks to the Conservatives' recent gains here) and in Quebec (the Liberals are at 37% against the Bloc's 45% in this poll) (Table 2)

This National Angus Reid/Southam News Poll was conducted by telephone between December 9th and 15th, 1996 among a representative cross-section of 1,504 Canadian adults.

The actual number of completed interviews in each region was as follows: B.C. - 201; Alberta - 135; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 121; Ontario - 526; Quebec - 401; Atlantic - 120. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1991 Census data.

With a national sample of 1,504, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within ±2.5 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population.

For more information of this release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
Senior Vice President
Angus Reid Group
(613) 241-5802