The Federal Race in Calgary-Centre: November 2000

Former Liberal Voters (51%) Flock to Clark in an Effort to Unseat the Alliance

Lowther Supporters More Certain of Their Vote, But Strategic "Vote Switching" Could Benefit Clark

Calgary, AB - The results of an exclusive Ipsos-Reid/CFCN poll show that less than one week before balloting, the race in Calgary-Centre is "too close to call" - the riding is essentially a two-party race between Eric Lowther of the Canadian Alliance (with 38% of the decided vote) and Conservative leader Joe Clark at 34%. The survey also indicates that past Liberal supporters are now turning to Clark in large numbers (51% of those who voted Liberal in 1997 now indicating their support for Clark) in an effort to unseat the Canadian Alliance candidate. Liberal Joanne Levy garners only 17% of the decided vote in the poll.

These results suggest that the election-day contest will be decided by the effectiveness of PC and CA "Get Out the Vote" efforts on November 27th, and on this front, Lowther appears to hold an edge over Clark. Fully 71% of CA voters in the riding say they are "Very Certain" about their vote on Election Day, compared to only 46% for the Tories. However, the survey also suggests that voter volatility in the riding may have an "upside" for Clark - only 53% of likely Liberal voters indicate that they are "Very Certain" about their vote. Further, a total of (67%) of non-Canadian Alliance voters -- including 63% of Liberal voters and 51% of NDP voters -- report that they would be more likely to consider a vote for Joe Clark if they thought that he had a chance of winning the riding.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFCN poll conducted between November 17th and November 20th, 2000. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 400 eligible voters in the Calgary-Centre riding. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 4.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire voter population in Calgary-Centre been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual constituency population according to the 1996 Census data.

The Race in Calgary-Centre
Among decided voters, Eric Lowther of the Canadian Alliance (38%) is in a "statistical dead-heat" with Conservative leader Joe Clark (34%), while Liberal Joanne Levy trails well back at 17%, followed by Don LePan of the NDP (6%) and various other party alternatives (4%). According to the late-campaign poll, only 3% of eligible voters in Calgary-Centre are unsure which candidate they would vote for if the federal election were held tomorrow, while another 2% say they would either "not vote" or "spoil their ballot". (SEE TABLE #1A)

• Support for Eric Lowther is higher among men (45%) than women (32%), those aged 55 years or more (54%) and tends to decline with education levels (51% among those with a high school education or less vs. 32% with university letters).
• Joe Clark voters are more common in the "middle age bracket" (47%) and support for the Tory leader increases with education levels (26% among those with a high school education or less vs. 41% among university graduates).
• Women (24%) are more likely to be considering a vote for Joanne Levy of the Liberals than men (12%), and Liberal vote tends to decline with age (22% among those aged 18 to 34 vs. 12% among those aged 55 years or more).

In 1997 and 1993, Liberal candidates in Calgary-Centre captured approximately one-third of the votes cast in the riding (33% in 1997, 30% in 1993) - well off the totals registered in the November survey of voters. Indeed, the poll suggests that former Liberal voters are migrating heavily toward Clark's candidacy in an effort to unseat Lowther - fully 51% of those who voted Liberal in 1997 are now planning to cast a ballot for Clark. (SEE TABLE #1B)

Although Eric Lowther's lead over Joe Clark is only 4 percentage points, the survey indicates that Clark's support is considerably "softer" than Lowther's. Fully 71% of those planning a vote for Lowther and the Alliance say they are "Very Certain" about their choice, compared to only 46% of likely Joe Clark voters. However, the Liberal vote is also quite "soft" (53% of Liberal voters say they are "Very Certain" about their decision), and this volatility could possibly pay dividends to Clark's candidacy if he is able to woo a portion of the Liberal vote in the dying days of the campaign. (SEE TABLE #2)

Candidate Approval
Although Joe Clark trails Eric Lowther in decided vote in Calgary-Centre, this late-campaign poll indicates that he is the most popular candidate running in the constituency. Fully 68% of those interviewed say they approve of Joe Clark as a candidate for their riding (30% Strongly approve, 38% Moderately approve), while Lowther's personal approval stands at 52% (25% Strongly approve, 27% Moderately approve). Meanwhile, views on Liberal Joanne Levy are somewhat more split in the riding - 44% approve of Levy compared to 37% who disapprove and 18% who simply don't know enough about her to offer an opinion, one way or the other. (SEE TABLE #3)

Voter Attitudes on the Race in Calgary-Centre
Finally, the late-campaign survey presented respondents with a series of prompted statements about the federal campaign in their riding, and asked them the degree to which they personally agreed or disagreed with each. This attitudinal assessment suggests that while support for Joe Clark is considerably "softer" than Lowther's, the volatility in the electorate could benefit the Tory leader's campaign. Among those who say they are not planning to vote for the Canadian Alliance, fully 69% agree that "of all the other candidates, Joe Clark and the PCs have the best chance of beating the Canadian Alliance in this constituency". Meanwhile, nearly as many (67%) agree that if they thought Clark and the PCs could "actually beat Eric Lowther" they "would be more likely to consider voting" for Clark (63% of likely Liberal voters agree with this statement, along with 51% of likely NDP voters).

Other insights gleaned from this attitudinal assessment include: (SEE TABLE #4)

• Over one-half (57%) of those not planning a vote for the Canadian Alliance agree that they would be more likely to consider a vote for Joanne Levy and the Liberals if they thought she could win. However, only 38% of this same group believe that Levy and the Liberals have the "best chance" to unseat Lowther and the Alliance.
• "Electability" is not as big an issue for PC leader Joe Clark as it once was, as a majority of eligible voters in Calgary-Centre do not believe that a vote for Joe Clark is a "wasted vote". Two-thirds (66%) disagree with the statement "a vote for Joe Clark is a wasted vote because he doesn't stand a chance of winning this constituency", while over one-half (56%) disagree that a vote for Clark is "wasted" because the PCs "don't stand a chance of forming the next government".
• A majority (58%) of Calgary-Centre voters maintain that Eric Lowther has done a "good job" representing the riding since he was elected, however most also believe that Joe Clark would be a strong representative. Fully 56% agree that "Joe Clark's experience in Parliament make him the best person to represent Calgary-Centre", while 71% believe that he would "do a good job" for Calgary-Centre if he is elected.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Marc Henry
Vice President
Ipsos-Reid Corp.
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)

or

Tim Olafson
Senior Vice President
Ipsos-Reid Corp.
403.237.0066 (Calgary)
780.944.9164 (Edmonton)

Please download PDF's at top of page to view tables.