Federal Vote: Liberals (39%) Maintain Healthy Lead (+13 Points) Over Conservatives (26%), NDP (16%) Trail - In Quebec (36% Bloc Vs. 38% Liberals)

Toronto, ON - According to a new Ipsos-Reid/Globe and Mail/CTV national survey of Canadians released today, the federal Liberal Party continues to hold a very healthy lead in the national polls over their next closest rival - the Conservatives.

The survey, which was conducted between October 26th and 28th, 2004 among 1001 Canadian adults, indicates that if a federal election were held tomorrow the federal Liberals would attract 39% of the national decided vote (essentially unchanged from 40% support recorded three weeks prior in an October 5th-7th, 2004 survey), and the Conservatives would attract 26% (essentially unchanged from 25% at the last sounding). This represents a healthy 13-point margin between the first and second place contenders, while the NDP (16%, down 1 point), the Bloc Quebecois (9%, unchanged), and the Green Party (7%, up 1 point) in comparison continue to register substantially lower levels of national decided voter support.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (36%, unchanged), remains in a pitched battle for federal decided vote support with the federal Liberals (38%, down 1 point).

The Ipsos-Reid seat projection model indicates that with this level of support, the federal Liberals could win a potentially tight majority government with between 153-157 seats, while the Conservatives would end up with between 86-90 seats, the Bloc Quebecois with between 45-49 seats, and the NDP with between 14-18 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/The Globe and Mail/CTV survey conducted from October 26th to October 28th, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Liberals Maintain Comfortable Lead Among Decided Voters (39%), Conservatives (26%) Follow Second, While NDP (16%) Trails Distantly - Bloc Sits At 36% In Quebec Vs. Liberals At 38%...

If a federal election were held tomorrow, 39% of decided voters would cast their support for the federal Liberal Party and their leader Paul Martin (essentially unchanged from 40% support recorded three weeks prior in an October 5th-7th, 2004 survey). Decided voter support for the Conservative Party remains static at 26% (up one point from 25% at the last sounding), as this party continues to trail the leading Liberals by a substantial margin (13 points).

In comparison to the Liberals and Conservatives, the NDP (16%, down 1 point), the Bloc Quebecois (9%, unchanged), and the Green Party (7%, up 1 point) register substantially lower levels of national decided voter support. A small portion of decided voters (3%) say they would vote for some "other" party.

The province of Quebec is tightly contested with the Bloc (36%, unchanged) and the Liberals (38%, down 1 point) locked in a pitched battle for federal decided voter support in this province.

Among all Canadians, 11% are undecided or "don't know" who they would vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow.

• The federal Liberal Party registers their highest support among decided voters in Atlantic Canada (47%, down 7 points), followed by Ontario (45%, up 3 points), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (41%, up 3 points), Quebec (38%, down 1 point), British Columbia (27%, down 14 points), and Alberta (23%, down 7 points).

• The Conservative Party registers their highest support among decided voters in Alberta (59%, up 7 points), followed by Saskatchewan/Manitoba (39%, up 1 point), Atlantic Canada (32%, up 3 points), Ontario (26%, down 1 point), and British Columbia (25%, up 1 point). In Quebec (8% up 3 points), the Conservative Party barely registers on the federal political radar.

• The federal New Democratic Party registers their highest support in British Columbia (27%, up 5 points), followed by Ontario (20%, down 1 point), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (16%, down 1 point), Atlantic Canada (12%, up 2 points), Quebec (10%, down 1 point), and Alberta (7%, down 2 points).

Seat Projection Model Suggests Liberals Would Take 153-157 Seats, Conservatives 86-90 Seats, Bloc Quebecois 45-49 Seats, NDP 14-18 Seats...

In an exclusive seat projection model provided to CTV and The Globe and Mail, if a vote were held tomorrow, the Liberals would have a potential of 153-157 seats, the Conservatives would have a potential of 86-90 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 14-18 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 45-49 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

For explanation of the projected seat range model please visit: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2197 Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President & C.O.O
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900