Following Loss Of Confidence Vote, Tories (31%) Edge Into Lead Over Grits (27%) - NDP (19%), Bloc (56% In Quebec), Green (6%)

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos-Reid national survey reveals that the Conservatives (31% and unchanged since last weeks poll) now appear to hold the lead in national decided voter support as the Liberals (27%, down 5 points) have fallen back in the polls.

Regionally, the Liberals have tumbled in two areas of the country. In volatile seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives now attract 34% of the decided votes (up 1 point) as Liberal support has dropped dramatically to 32% (down 12 points). Liberal support has also fallen in Atlantic Canada (35%, down 10 points) into a virtual tie with the Conservatives at 34% (up 2 points). In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 56% support (up 6 points) and hold a 41-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (15%, down 5 points).

As for the other political parties nationally, 19% of decided voters support the NDP (up 3 points), and 6% support the Green Party (up 1 point).

Provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, this opinion poll was launched on the evening of May 10th when a 153-150 vote in Parliament called on Paul Martin and the Liberal government to step down. The survey was completed over the following two nights and included two further questions in the wake of the post-confidence vote turmoil.

It would appear that the loss of confidence vote on Tuesday night might well have been a watershed for the Liberal minority government in that half of Canadians (50%) surveyed after that vote believe that it indeed signalled a loss of confidence in Parliament for Paul Martin's Liberals. However, a majority of Canadians (62%) surveyed after the vote also indicated that they are prepared to wait for another confidence vote on the Federal budget that has been scheduled for May 19th.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from May 10th to May 12th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1001 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 1773.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data. A total of 626 Canadians were polled on two questions over the final two nights of the survey following the confidence vote. The results are nationally representative and have a margin of error of 1773.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. These particular results are herein reported on a national basis without regional or other sub-groupings of the survey population. Please open the attached PDF to view the full factum including graphical representations and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President &COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900 John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900