Grits Get Post Convention Bounce As Ontario And Quebec Warms To Liberals

Toronto, ON - A new Ipsos Reid survey conducted on behalf of CanWest/Global News reveals that Stephane Dion and the Federal Liberal Party are enjoying a post-convention bounce, and for the first time since the January 23rd, 2006, general election have taken a lead in terms of voter support.

If an election were held tomorrow, 38% of decided voters would cast their ballot in support of the Liberal Party (+7 points), while 32% would support the Conservatives (-5 points). The New Democratic Party would garner the support of 13% of federal voters (-2 points), the Bloc Quebecois 11% (unchanged), and the Green Party 5% (unchanged). The surge in Liberal support appears to be largely driven by gains in the Liberal heartland of Ontario (+7 points) and Quebec (+7 points), where the battle for a majority government will be won or lost for both leading federal parties in the next election.

• In Quebec: Bloc Quebecois (43%, -1 point), followed by Liberals (30%, +7 points), and Conservatives (18%, -1 point) - NDP (6%, -3 points), Green (2%, -2 points).
• In Ontario: Liberals (45%, +7 points) have 10 point lead over the Conservatives (35%, -3 points) - NDP (12%, -5 points), Greens (6%, unchanged).

The Liberal gains can be attributed to an overall favourable response to their new leader, Stephane Dion --which suggests he maybe an ideal middle-of-the-road compromise. While Mr. Dion (48% "favourable") and Mr. Stephen Harper (46% "favourable") have comparable numbers when it comes to overall favourability, the percentage that views Mr. Harper "unfavourably" (48%) is 17 points higher than that of Mr. Dion (31%).

The first challenge that Mr. Dion has faced as the new Leader of the Liberal Party, the question of his dual Canadian and French citizenship, has not tarnished his reputation with Canadians. Only 29% think Stephane Dion must immediately give up his French citizenship versus 49% who say he doesn't have to.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from December 5-7th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1004 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

The Federal Vote: Liberals (38%, +7 Points) Surge Into Lead Over Conservatives (32%, -5 Points)...

Federal Vote Support

Eleven percent are undecided, or would not vote (unchanged).

• In Quebec: Bloc Quebecois (43%, -1 point), followed by Liberals (30%, +7 points), and Conservatives (18%, -1 point) - NDP (6%, -3 points), Green (2%, -2 points).
• In Ontario: Liberals (45%, +7 points) have 10 point lead over the Conservatives (35%, -3 points) - NDP (12%, -5 points), Greens (6%, unchanged).

Full regional tables are provided at the end of this factum.

Impressions Of Party Leaders Indicates Highest Favourability Towards Stephane Dion...

When Canadians are asked about their overall impression of each of the federal party leaders:

• 48% indicate a favourable impression of Stephane Dion versus 31% who have an unfavourable impression (gap score of +17 points) and 19% who say they "don't know enough about the person";
• 47% indicate a favourable impression of Jack Layton versus 41% who have an unfavourable impression (gap score of +6 points) and 12% who say they "don't know enough about the person";
• 32% indicate a favourable impression of Elizabeth May versus 28% who have an unfavourable impression (gap score of +4 points) and 38% who "don't know enough about the person";
• 46% indicate a favourable impression of Prime Minister Stephen Harper versus 48% who have an unfavourable impression (negative gap score of -2 points) and 5% who say they "don' t know enough about the person".

In Quebec: 55% have a favourable impression of Gilles Duceppe versus 40% who have an unfavourable impression (gap score of +15 points).

Impressions Of Party Leaders

Overall, would you say you have a strongly favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable, or strongly unfavourable impression of each of the following party leaders?
*Asked in Quebec only

Overall, would you say you have a strongly favourable, somewhat favourable, somewhat unfavourable, or strongly unfavourable impression of each of the following party leaders?
*Asked in Quebec only

Now That Liberals Have A New Leader: 44% Say Liberals Deserve To Be Elected - But Sharp Divide At Manitoba/Ontario Border...

Forty-four percent agree with the statement that "now that the Liberals have a new leader, the Federal Liberal Party deserves to be elected and govern under the leadership of Stephane Dion" versus 50% who disagree with this statement.

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that now that the Liberals have a new leader, the Federal Liberal Party deserves to be elected and govern under the leadership of Stephane Dion?

Agreement By Region

Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that now that the Liberals have a new leader, the Federal Liberal Party deserves to be elected and govern under the leadership of Stephane Dion?

• Ipsos Reid asked as similar question in a November 28-29th survey, when 38% agreed with the statement "the Liberal party is ready to govern Canada again" versus 58% who disagreed.

Three In Ten (29%) Say Dion Must Give Up His French Citizenship...

As you may know, Stephane Dion is the new leader of the Federal Liberal Party. As you may also know, he is a duel citizen of Canada and France. Stephane Dion has said that he won't consider giving up his French citizenship because there is no question that he is loyal to Canada. Critics have said that because Stephane Dion could one day become Canada's Prime Minister, he must immediately give up his French citizenship. statement is closest to your point of view?

• Residents of Quebec (59%) are the most likely to say Mr. Dion should not have to give up his French citizenship, followed by those in Atlantic Canada (53%), Ontario (49%) and British Columbia (47%).
• Those in Alberta and Ontario (both at 32%) are the most likely to believe Mr. Dion must immediately give up his citizenship.

Regional Vote Tables

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900