The GTA: Federal Politics and Issues

The Federal Liberal Party enjoys a solid lead in party popularity in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), according to a recent CFRB-Angus Reid Poll conducted among 400 randomly-selected adult residents of the Greater Toronto Area. The survey was conducted between September 11th and 14th, 1996. The main findings of the poll are:

The Federal Liberal Party holds the support of 56 percent of decided voters in the Greater Toronto Area. The Progressive Conservatives follow distantly with support from 15 percent of decided voters, followed by the Reform Party and the NDP who are tied at eight percent.

Fourteen percent of those surveyed are currently undecided, or refused to say which party they would support if a federal election were held tomorrow.

Liberal support is highest among GTA residents aged 18 to 54, and among those with higher levels of education. The Tories' support is strongest among GTA residents aged 55 and over, and more affluent voters. Support for the NDP is highest among less affluent and less educated voters. The Reform Party's support stems from all demographic sub-groups in the GTA.

Bilingualism:

GTA residents were asked the following question, "As you may be aware, there are hard liners within the Parti Quebecois government in Quebec who want to remove English from all signs in the province. Now, some people say that if this happens, the Government of Ontario should eliminate bilingualism programs and initiatives in Ontario in retaliation against the separatists in Quebec. Others say that two wrongs don't make a right, and that our government should continue to promote bilingualism in Ontario. Generally speaking, which one of these statements is closest to your own point of view?".

In response, and following recent controversy over bilingual signage requirements in Quebec, three-quarters (75%) of adult residents in the Greater Toronto Area express support for the continued promotion of bilingualism in Ontario, compared to one-quarter (24%) who would like bilingualism programs and initiatives in Ontario to be eliminated as a form of retaliation.

Younger and higher educated GTA residents are more apt to support continued efforts to promote bilingualism in Ontario.

Potential to Move to Montreal:

When asked, "If you had the opportunity to move you and/or your family to Montreal today, would you move?", just over one-in-ten (13%) of residents in the GTA would move to Montreal if given an opportunity to do so without incentive.

The remaining 87 percent of GTA residents were further asked, "Suppose you had the opportunity to receive a 10 percent raise and promotion at your work -- if it meant moving you and/or your family from Toronto to Montreal, would you move?". Among these residents, a further 13 percent would move to Montreal with a carrot -- the prospect of a promotion and a 10 percent raise.

In total, one-in-four (24%) GTA residents would move to Montreal now, or be willing to move through incentives.

Overall, more males than females in the GTA indicate a preference to move from Toronto to Montreal, as well as younger residents aged 18-34 and low to mid-income earners.

This poll was conducted by telephone between September 11th and 14th 1996, among a representative cross-section of 400 randomly selected adults residing in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's age/sex composition reflects that of the actual GTA population according to the 1991 Census data. With the GTA-wide sample of 400, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within 1775.0 percentage points of what they would have been had the entire GTA adult population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within the various sub-groupings of the survey population.

For further information, contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Angus Reid Group
(416) 324-2900