Harper's Alliance Get Slight Bump, Not a Kick, From Leadership Convention

But, Liberals Still Hold Commanding Lead (45%) As Canadian Alliance (up 3 points to 15%) Tie with PC's (15%), Leads NDP (10%) and Bloc (10%)

Toronto, ONTARIO- According to an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today, the election of Stephen Harper as leader of the Canadian Alliance party appears to have given the party a slight increase in support, but not a huge kick in popularity. One-in-six (16%) Canadians say they are more likely to vote for the Harper lead Alliance, 7% say they are less likely, while three-quarters (75%) say that the election of Mr. Harper as leader makes no difference in their choice.

Although the election of Stephen Harper as leader has not had a major affect on voting intentions overall, the effect is stronger among supporters of the Alliance and, to a lesser extent, the Conservatives. The Alliance receive a net increase of 42 points among their own voters who indicate they are more likely to vote for the party with Harper as leader (more likely: 43%; less likely: 1%) and a net increase of 8 points (more likely: 16%; less likely: 8%) among PC voters.

However, the Liberals (45%), down 2 points since February, remain the most popular party in the country, with the Canadian Alliance (15%; up 3 points) and the Progressive Conservatives (15%; down 1 point) tied in second spot. The NDP (10%) and Bloc Quebecois (10%) remain unchanged from the previous ranking.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between March 26th and March 28th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

The election of Stephen Harper as leader of the Canadian Alliance does not appear to have moved a large number of Canadian voters into supporting the Canadian Alliance. However, the Alliance receives a net increase of 9-points (more likely: 16%; less likely: 7%) in the likelihood to vote for the CA with Mr. Harper as leader. While three-quarters (75%) say that the leader makes no difference in their choice of party.

One-in-six (16%) say they are more likely to vote for the Canadian Alliance with Mr. Harper as leader.

• Regionally, those who are more likely to vote for the CA with Mr. Harper as leader are located in Alberta (28%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (26%), and British Columbia (24%). This compares to 13% of those in Ontario and one-in-ten voters in Quebec (10%) and Atlantic Canada (10%).
• Older (20%) Canadians are almost twice as likely to express this view than younger (11%) Canadians.
• Residents from the highest household income group (19%) are more likely than Canadians in the middle (14%) or lower (14%) household income groups to express this view.

Just over one-in-twenty (7%), say they are less likely to support the Canadian Alliance with Stephen Harper as leader.

• This view is more likely held by voters in Ontario (10%), while almost equivalent numbers of Atlantic Canadians (6%), residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (6%), British Columbians (5%) and Quebecers (4%) express this viewpoint. Only 2% of Albertans hold this opinion.
• Older (9%) Canadians are slightly more likely than younger (5%) Canadians to express this view.

However, among Alliance supporters, the election of Stephen Harper appears to have had a greater impact.

• The Alliance receives a net increase of 42 points in likelihood to vote for the party amongst their own supporters with Mr. Harper as leader. Forty-three percent are more likely to vote for the Harper lead party, one percent are less likely (net +42), while 56% say the leader makes no difference in their decision to support the Alliance.
• Among supporters of their rivals on the right, the Conservatives, 16% say they are more likely to vote for the CA with Harper as leader, eight percent indicate they are less likely (net +8), while 74% say the leader makes not difference in their choice.
• There is also a slight increase (net +5) among supporters of the Bloc Quebecois, with 9% saying more likely, and 3% saying less likely, to vote for the CA with Harper as leader.
• Among Liberal (net +1) and NDP (net -9) supporters the election of Stephen Harper has had a neutral or negative impact on likelihood to vote for the CA.

However, the Liberals (45%), down two points since February, remain the most popular party in the country.

• Regionally, the Liberals are most popular among residents of Ontario (54%), Atlantic Canada (49%), Quebec (45%), and British Columbia (37%). They are less popular among residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (29%) - where they are tied with the Alliance (29%) - and Alberta (26%) - where they trail in second spot behind the CA (46%).
• The Liberals garner higher support among women (50%) than among men (40%).
• The Grits are also slightly more popular with Canadians in the lower (49%) and middle (47%) household income groups, than with those in the upper household income group (41%).

In the battle for the right, the Canadian Alliance (15%) up 3 points since February, and the Progressive Conservatives (15%; down 1 point) are tied in second spot nationally.

• Regional support for the parties on the right is split generally on an east-west axis, with the Alliance receiving their highest support in Alberta (45%), British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (both 29%), while they are weaker in Ontario (11%), and Atlantic Canada (4%). The mirror image holds for the Tories, with their highest levels of support coming from Atlantic Canada (31%), and Ontario (21%), while they are less popular in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (each 14%). Conservative support in Quebec (5%) is about the same as the CA (3%) support in the province.
• Among household income groups, the same general pattern holds for supporters of the CA and the PC's. The Conservatives are more popular among Canadians in the upper household income group (22%), followed by those in the middle (13%) and lower (11%) household income groups. Support for the Alliance follows the same trend - upper (18%), middle (14%), lower (12%) household income group.
• Older (18%) and middle aged (17%) Canadians are more likely to express support for the Conservatives than younger (12%) Canadians. Younger (17%) and older (16%) Canadians are slightly more likely to support the Alliance than their middle aged (13%) counterparts.
• While women (16%) and men (15%) are equally as likely to express support the Conservatives, men (20%) are almost twice as likely than women (11%) to express support for the Alliance.

The NDP (10%) support remains unchanged from February.

• Regionally, NDP support is strongest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (22%), Atlantic Canada (15%), British Columbia (12%) and Ontario (10%). They receive less support in Alberta (9%) and Quebec (5%).
• There is no significant difference among age, gender or income groups in the levels of support for the NDP.

Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecios (10% nationally) garners support of four-in-ten (38%) Quebecers, but still trail the federal Liberals (45%) by 7 points, which is unchanged from the lead recorded in February.

To view the complete release and tables, please download the attached PDF file.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Public Affairs,
North America
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900