Liberals Narrow the Gap, but Conservatives Retain the Hammer

Toronto, ON, Jan. 29, 2024 – As Parliament resumes, a new Ipsos poll for Global News shows the race between the Conservatives and the Liberals tightening, but the Tories retain the hammer. This poll is the first in nearly a year that shows rising support for the Liberal Party, after support bottomed out at just 24% of the popular vote in November.  The 3-point rise in Liberal support has come at the expense of the Conservatives who have dropped 4 points since November. Support for the NDP (20%), Bloc (8%), Green Party (3%) and Peoples Party (3%) has remained static. This session of Parliament will help determine whether the Liberals have a chance at being competitive in the next election, whenever it occurs.

Underscoring the Conservative advantage is a double-digit lead for the Tories (39%) over both the NDP (27%) and Liberals (26%) in seat-rich Ontario. That double-digit lead also extends to the western provinces. In Quebec, the Bloc (34%) leads the Liberals (31%) and the Conservatives (23%), while in Atlantic Canada a tight three-way race has ensued. The Conservatives also have a double-digit lead over their main rivals among voters aged 35 and older, which amplifies their advantage given the higher propensity to vote among older voters. 13% of Canadians are undecided on who they would vote for.

ABOUT THE STUDY

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between January 19th to 22nd, 2024, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the Canadian population according to census parameters. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians aged 18+ been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]

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