Liberals Poised to Win Fourth Term

On the eve of the 45th Canadian federal election, Ipsos polling for Global News reveals that the Liberals are poised to earn their fourth consecutive mandate, leading the Conservatives by four points nationally among decided voters (42% Liberal vs. 38% Conservative). The NDP trails with 9%, while the Bloc Québécois holds 6% support nationally —25% in Québec. The Green Party secures 2%, with the People’s Party and other parties each capturing 1% each. At this late juncture, just 5% of Canadians remain undecided, and 71% of those who have made up their minds are “absolutely certain” of their choice. Among both Liberal and Conservative supporters, 75% say they are “absolutely certain” of their choice. With votes now locked in, the question now focuses on voter turnout and motivation.

As has been the case throughout the campaign, Mark Carney (43%, +2 pts) continues to be Canadians’ top choice for best Prime Minister, followed by Pierre Poilievre (35%, -1 pt). Jagmeet Singh, Yves-François Blanchet, Maxime Bernier, and Jonathan Pedneault trail, with none of these candidates having more than 8% support.

Another key metric reinforcing the Liberal advantage heading into election day is that 44% of Canadians believe that the government under Mark Carney has done a good job and deserves re-election (44%, -2 pts), a figure which often correlates strongly to popular vote. Conversely, 53% (-1 pt) believe that it’s time for another federal party to take over. What began as a campaign about change eventually morphed into a campaign about leadership. 

Approval of the Liberal government rests at 48% (-2 pts).

Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Québec, Ontario, and British Columbia, while the Conservatives dominate in Alberta and the Prairies.

The key to the likely Liberal victory is found in Canada’s most populous provinces: in Ontario, the Liberals enjoy an eight-point lead over the Conservatives, and in Québec, the Liberals benefit from a double-digit lead over all other rivals. 

Moreover, the Liberals also lead by a wide margin in Atlantic Canada, and are clinging to a small advantage in British Columbia, one of Canada’s most competitive regions – particularly due to the collapse of the NDP. 

Conversely, the Conservatives enjoy significant leads in Alberta (+27 pts) and the Prairies (+17 pts), although this makes their vote inefficient, since they’ll win many ridings in these provinces by very wide margins.

Although trailing both major parties, the NDP sees its strongest support in the Prairies (15%), BC (13%), and Ontario (10%). NDP support nationally is half what the party received in the 2021 federal election.

Another key to Liberal success is their large lead among those aged 55+, who typically are the most likely to show up and vote. Among voters aged 55 and older, nearly half (48%) favour the Liberals, while 34% say they’ll vote Conservative. In contrast, among those 35-54, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 43% to 38%. Among younger voters aged 18-34, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 38% with the NDP marginally improving (15%).

There are also significant differences in voting behaviour by gender. Among male voters, the gap is relatively narrow — with 42% backing the Conservatives compared to 40% for the Liberals. However, among female voters, this gap widens considerably: 44% support for the Liberals versus 35% for the Conservatives. Conservatives have struggled to break through among the female audience, particularly older women. 

As ever, voter turnout will decide the composition of parliament, and the size of the Liberal victory will come down to how motivated each party’s supporters are to vote, and which party can translate those good intentions into cast ballots.

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between April 22nd and 26th, 2025, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=2,500 eligible voters in Canada aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n=1,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, via the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents earn a nominal incentive for their participation. A sample of n=1,500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos polls which include non-probability sampling is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadians been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. Ipsos abides by the disclosure standards established by the CRIC, found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ ​For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Ipsos Global Public Affairs
+1 416 324 2001
[email protected]
 

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