Liberals Tank to 25% Support--Lowest Since November 12, 2008 Under Former Leader Dion
Conservatives (40%) Open 15-Point Lead Nationally and Have Healthy Lead in Every Region Except Quebec

Toronto, ON -Michael Ignatieff's federal Liberals have tanked to their lowest level since November 12, 2008 under former leader Stephane Dion according to the latest Ipsos Reid conducted for Global Television and CanWest News Service.

In fact, with the exception of December 3, 2008 when the Liberals were at 23% in the polls, this is the lowest level from at least September, 2008 when the Liberals received just 26% of the national vote support. Indeed, support for the federal Liberal party has weakened so much that, were an election to be held today, Michael Ignatieff would lead his party to a worse showing than his predecessor, Stephane Dion, did last October. Mr. Dion received 28% of the popular vote last fall as his party lost to Stephen Harper's Conservatives. The Liberals had not done that poorly at a general election since the country's very first general election in 1867.

This latest Ipsos Reid poll suggests that, last week when the sounding was taken, the Liberals would have done even worse, with just 25% of support among all Canadians.

Conversely, Stephen Harper's Minority Conservatives are now at 40% nationally and command a healthy lead in every region except Quйbec where they languish at 18%. It's fair to say that if the Conservatives were 10 points better in that province they would be looking at a sweeping majority government. As it stands now, a Majority might be within grasp but not for certain without higher support in Quebec.

The NDP remains stagnant at 13% nationally while the Green party has rebounded to 11% (+3 points).

The Liberals have lost needed ground the province of Quйbec where they've been battling each other over who would run the party apparatus. Here there has been some fallout in the last month with the Liberal party dropping from 26% to 22%, and with the Conservatives slipping from 20% to 18%, it's the Bloc Quйbecois who has benefited the most and now sits at 42% (+ 2 points).

This must indeed be bitter news for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff who has spent the last month drawing a line in the sand vowing to bring down the government at the earliest possible moment. It's instructive to note that in the September 15, 2009 poll by Ipsos Reid it was demonstrated that if an election were to be triggered this fall, a majority (54%) of Canadians said Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would be most to blame for it happening and half (51%) of these individuals (a total of 28% of Canadian voters overall) said it would motivate them to vote against the party. It would appear that this scenario may well have played out.

It remains to be seen whether Mr. Ignatieff's recent change in course -backing down from toppling the government and instead focusing on the politics of stimulus cheques in Tory ridings--will revive his party's standings.

Nationally, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have the support of 40% of decided voters (up 1 point), while support for Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals has dropped to 25% (down 4 points). The NDP under Jack Layton has the support of 13% of voters (unchanged), while the Green Party has 11% support (up 3 points). The Bloc Quebecois sits at 11% nationally (up 1 point) and 42% in the province of Quйbec. Six percent (6%) of voters are undecided.

Here's a breakdown in terms of where the parties are now versus standings recorded October 6-8, 2009:

Atlantic Canada--Conservative 46% (+11), Liberal 30% (-16), NDP 19% (+4), Green 6% (+2)

Quйbec--Bloc 42% (+2), Liberal 22% (- 4), Conservative 18% (-2), Green 11% (+7), NDP 7% (-2)

Ontario--Conservative 41% (+1), Liberal 32% (-4), Green 14% (+2), NDP 13% (+2)

Saskatchewan/Manitoba--Conservative 60% (-7), Liberal 14% (-5), Green 14% (+11), NDP 13% (+3)

Alberta--Conservative 59% (-1), NDP 17% (+3), Liberal 15% (-1), Green 8% (+2)

British Columbia--Conservative 49% (+2), NDP 23% (-5), Liberal 18% (-), Green 9% (+3)

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from October 20 to 22, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,003 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub- groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002
[email protected]

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