Lowest Level of Job Approval (46%) for Jean Chretien Since Becoming Prime Minister

Joe Clark (54%) Receives Highest Job Approval Among Opposition Leaders

Toronto, ONTARIO - In the aftermath of recent scandals and the departure of long time Finance Minister Paul Martin, a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today indicates that Prime Minister Chretien's personal job approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since being elected Prime Minister in 1993. For the first time, Prime Minister Chretien's job approval rating (46%) drops below a majority of Canadians. This represents a decline of 17 points since late September 2001. In fact, more Canadians disapprove (49%) of the Prime Ministers performance - 33% indicating strong disapproval - than approve (46%).

Eight in ten (78%) Canadians indicate they approve of Paul Martin's performance as Minister of Finance, with close to half (47%) who indicate they strongly approve. Fifteen percent indicate they disapprove of Mr. Martin's job as Finance Minister.

Half (48%) of Canadians believe that the recently departed Minister of Finance Paul Martin would make the best leader of the federal Liberal Party. Current leader and Prime Minister, Jean Chretien, is chosen by one fifth (18%) of Canadians as best for the job. While each of the other possible leaders tested receive support from less than one in ten voters.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted June 4th and 5th, 2002. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 1996 Census data.

Lowest Level of Job Approval (46%) for Jean Chretien Since Becoming Prime Minister

In the aftermath of recent ethics scandals and the departure of Canada's longest serving Minister of Finance Paul Martin over the weekend, Prime Minister Chretien's personal job approval rating has dropped to its lowest level since he become Prime Minister in 1993. For the first time, less than a majority (46%) indicate approval of the job that Mr. Chretien has done as Prime Minister. This represents a decline of 17 points since late September 2001. In fact, more Canadians disapprove (49%) of the Prime Minister's performance - one-third (33%) indicating strong disapproval - than approve (46%). In fact, Prime Minister Chretien now is ranked behind Joe Clark (54%) in job approval.

• Regionally, the Prime Ministers job approval is highest among residents of Atlantic Canada (67%). This compares to Ontario (52%), Quebec (43%), followed by British Columbia (37%) and Alberta (37%), while his approval is lowest in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%).
• Women (51% versus 41% of men) are more like to indicate approval of the job that Jean Chretien has done as Prime Minister.
• The Prime Ministers highest rate of approval is among younger (53%) and middle aged (46%) voters. This compares to 38% of older voters.
• Jean Chretien receives a higher level of approval among Canadians in lower (51%) and higher (50%) income households than from those in middle income households (43%).

In comparison, the Prime Ministers job approval rating was highest when newly elected in February 1994 (71%) and March 1995 (70%). His previous lowest approval rating to date was recorded in May 1997 (52%) and March 2001 (52%).

Eight in Ten (78%) Approve of Performance of Former Finance Minister Paul Martin

Eight in ten (78%) Canadians indicate they approve of Paul Martin's performance as Minister of Finance, with close to half (47%) indicating they strongly approve. Fifteen percent say they disapprove of Mr. Martin's job as Finance Minister.

• Approval of Mr. Martin's performance is highest in Quebec (81%), followed closely by Ontario (79%), British Columbia (78%), Atlantic Canada (78%), and Alberta (76%), while it is lowest in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (67%).
• Members of upper income households (84%) are more likely to indicate approve of Mr. Martin's performance than those in middle (77%) or lower (71%) income households.
• Older (91%) and middle aged (80%) Canadians are more likely to indicate approval than younger (65%) Canadians.

Half (48%) of Canadians Believe Martin Best Liberal Leader, While One in Five (18%) Choose Prime Minister

Half (48%) of Canadians believe that the recently departed Minister of Finance Paul Martin would make the best leader of the federal Liberal Party.

• Support for Mr. Martin is strongest in Quebec (58%), followed by Ontario (48%), British Columbia (47%), Alberta (44%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%), while his lowest level of support is recorded in Atlantic Canada (35%).
• Mr. Martin is also more likely to be supported by men (54%) than women (43%), as well as older (64%) and middle aged (52%) voters (versus 32% of younger Canadians).
• The former Finance Minister receives higher support among upper (54%) and middle (50%) income household members than those in lower income households (36%).

Current leader and Prime Minister, Jean Chretien, is chosen by one fifth (18%) of Canadians.

• The Prime Minister receives higher support within Atlantic Canada (23%) and Ontario (21%). Followed by Alberta (20%), British Columbia (17%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (15%) and Quebec (12%).
• The "little guy from Shawinigan" receives higher support among members of the lowest income households (25%), than among upper (17%) or middle (15%) income households.
• Mr. Chretien is also supported by a higher proportion of younger (29%) Canadians than by middle aged (13%) or older (12%) voters.

Each of the other possible leaders tested receives support from less than one in ten.

• Heritage Minister Shelia Copps receives support from 6% of Canadians
• Former Federal Minister and Newfoundland Premier, Brian Tobin is supported by 6% of voters.
• Deputy Premier and new Minister of Finance, John Manley is viewed as the best possible Liberal leader by 5%.
• Minister of Industry, Allan Rock receives the support of 3% of Canadians as the best possible Liberal leader.

Four percent indicate that "none of these individuals" would make the best leader of the federal Liberal party, while 8% indicate they "don't know".

Joe Clark (54%) Receives Highest Job Approval Among Opposition Leaders

Among the opposition party leaders, Joe Clark (approve 54%; disapprove 32%) of the Progressive Conservatives fares best, followed by the recently resigned NDP leader Alexa McDonough (approve 48%; disapprove 28%), and newly elected leader of the Canadian Alliance Stephen Harper (approve 40%; disapprove 25%). Within Quebec, Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc Quebecois receives an approval rating of 54% (disapprove 29%).

Mr. Clark's approval (54%) rating is below that recorded in early September 2001 (60%), July 2001 (60%) or March 2001 (58%), but significantly above earlier soundings in July 2000 (35%) and September 2000 (42%).

• Joe Clark receives his highest level of approval among Canadians 35 years of age and older (58% versus 47% of those 18 to 34).

This poll was conducted the day before and the day of Ms. McDonough's resignation. At the time of her resignation, Ms. McDonough's job approval rating (48%) is at its highest level since becoming leader of the NDP in 1995.

• Alexa McDonough receives higher levels of approval among residents of Atlantic Canada (69%) and women (52% versus 43% of men).

New Alliance leader Stephen Harper's approval rating (40%) is 23 points higher than former leader Stockwell Day received in early September 2001 (17%).

• Stephen Harper receives his highest approval ratings among those in Alberta (55%), Ontario (46%), and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (44%), as well as among men (44% versus 37% of women).

In the Province of Quebec Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe receives an approval rating of 54%, while 29% disapprove of his job as leader of the Bloc. This represents M. Duceppe's highest job approval rating since becoming leader, and is slightly higher than in the most recent soundings in early September 2001 (51%).

To view the complete release and tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker
President and COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
416) 324-2900