Majority (52% Versus 43%) of Canadians Say United Nations Should Now Authorise Military Action Against Iraq

Toronto, ONTARIO (Friday, March 14th, 2003) - In a roller coaster week at the United Nations where Britain proposed a series of benchmarks for Saddam Hussein to agree to only to find France waiting in the wings to veto it and an impatient United States sounding very much like an attack is imminent, Canadian public opinion appears to be moving in a hawkish direction-- a majority support the UN taking military action now against the regime as opposed to letting the inspection process take more time according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today.

While Canadians remain opposed to unilateral US action and are split as to whether it will take place next week in the face of opposing global public opinion, this latest poll should give some direction to the Federal Government as to what position this nation should take at the United Nations. It would appear that an iron fist in a velvet glove is emerging in Canadian public opinion: it is time for the UN to back up its Resolution 1441 with force.

A slight majority (52%) of Canadians express the view that the UN should authorise military action to enforce UN Resolution 1441 that calls for disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. Four in ten (43%) say that the Security Council should not authorise such action.

Canadians continue to come down strongly on the side of the United Nations in this dispute. While half of Canadians say the UN should authorise military action to enforce Resolution 1441, six in ten (59%) Canadians oppose the United States and its current allies conducting a military operation to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein from power, if the United Nations Security Council does not authorise military action against Iraq. Four in ten (38%) Canadians support the Americans attacking Iraq if the Security Council does not authorise military action against Saddam Hussein.

But despite their preferred position, Canadians split as to what will actually happen during the next week. One half (49%) feel that the United Nations and other world leaders will be able to persuade the United States and its allies to allow UN weapons inspectors more time to complete their work and to not launch a military attack against Iraq immediately. However, just as many (48%) feel that regardless of the position of the United Nations Security Council and the views of many world leaders, the United States and its current allies will launch a military attack against Iraq within the next week.

As for what position Canada should take in the Iraq situation, six in ten (59%) hold to the position that Canada should only provide military assistance in an Iraq conflict if the United Nations authorises military action. One in five (21%) Canadians, say that Canada should provide military assistance if the United Nations decided to take action against Iraq on its own, without UN authorisation. One-fifth (18%) of Canadians hold to the pacifist position that Canada should not provide any military assistance to the United Nations or the United States in a military action against Iraq. Canadians have been consistent in their views regarding these options when polled in January and February.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll conducted between March 10th and March 13th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001Census data.

A slight majority (52%) of Canadians express the view that the UN should authorise military action to enforce UN Resolution 1441 that calls for disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. Four in ten (43%) say that the Security Council should not authorise such action, while 5% say they `don't know'.

• Regionally, Atlantic Canadians (66%) are the most likely to say the UN should authorise military action against Iraq, while residents of Quebec (45%) are the least likely to hold this position. In fact, a majority (54%) of Canadians outside of Quebec say the UN should authorise action compared to 45% within Quebec.
• Six in ten (59%) men say that the UN should authorise military action, compared to 45% of women. Women (47%) are more likely to say the UN should not do this compared to men (38%).
• Middle aged (55%) and older (54%) Canadians are more likely to say they UN should authorise action than are younger (47%) Canadians. Conversely, younger (49%) Canadians are more likely than either their middle aged (41%) or older (40%) counterparts to say they UN should not do this.
• Canadians without a high school diploma (69%), with a diploma (57%) or some university or other post-secondary education (55%) are more likely than those with a university degree (38%) to indicate that the UN should authorise military action against Saddam Hussein.

Canadians continue to come down strongly on the side of the United Nations in this dispute. While half of Canadians say the UN should authorise military action to enforce Resolution 1441, six in ten (59% - 44% strongly) Canadians oppose the United States and its current allies conducting a military operation to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein from power, if the United Nations Security Council does not authorise military action against Iraq. Four in ten (38%) Canadians support the Americans attacking Iraq if the Security Council does not authorise military action against Saddam Hussein, while 3% say they `don't know'.

• Regionally, opposition of unilateral US action is highest in Quebec (73% - 57% strongly). Support for unilateral action by the United States is highest in Atlantic Canada (50%), followed by Alberta (48%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (46%), while it is lowest in Quebec (26%). In total four in ten (41%) outside of Quebec support unilateral U.S. action compared to the 26% within Quebec.
• Women (65%) are more likely than men (54%) to oppose unilateral action, while men (44%) are more likely to express support than are women (32%).
• Three quarters (75%) of Canadians with a university degree oppose unilateral American action against Iraq. This compares to the views of Canadians with some university or other post-secondary education (55%), a high school diploma (54%) or without a high school diploma (43%).
• There is no statistical difference in positions between age or household income groups on this question.

But despite their preferred position, Canadians split as to what will actually happen during the next week. One half (49%) feel that the United Nations and other world leaders will be able to persuade the United States and its allies to allow UN weapons inspectors more time to complete their work and to not launch a military attack against Iraq immediately. However, just as many (48%) feel that regardless of the position of the United Nations Security Council and the views of many world leaders, the United States and its current allies will launch a military attack against Iraq within the next week. Three percent indicate they `don't know'.

• Quebecers (55%) are the most likely to feel that the United Nations and world leaders will be able to persuade the United States to allow more time for the UN weapons inspectors. This compares to 46% of Canadians in the rest of the country.
• Men (52%) are more likely than women (45%) to feel that the United States will proceed with a military attack on Iraq within the next week regardless of the position of United Nations.
• Younger (54%) Canadians are more likely to say that the Americans will proceed with their military action, despite the views of the United Nations than are their middle aged (46%) or older (45%) counterparts.

As for what position Canada should take in the Iraq situation, six in ten (59%) hold to the view that Canada should only provide military assistance in an Iraq conflict if the United Nations authorises military action. One in five (21%) say that Canada should provide military assistance if the United Nations decided to take action against Iraq on its own, without UN authorisation. One-fifth (18%) of Canadians hold to the pacifist position that Canada should not provide any military assistance to the United Nations or the United States in a military action against Iraq. Two percent say they `don't know'.

• Residents of British Columbia (71%) are more likely to say Canada should only provide military support if action is authorised by the United Nations. This compares to the views of Quebecers (64%), Alberta (56%), Atlantic Canada (56%), residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (55%), and Ontario (54%).
• Regionally, one quarter (25%) of Canadians outside of Quebec say that Canada should provide military assistance even if the UN does not authorise military action, while just 10% of Quebecers share this view.
• Quebecers (25%) are the most likely to hold the position that Canada should not provide any military assistance in a military action against Iraq, compared to 15% of the rest of Canada.
• Women (66% versus 51% of men) are more likely to say Canada should only provide military assistance if military action receives UN authorisation. Men (31%) are more likely than women (12%) to say Canada should provide assistance to the United States even if the UN does not authorise military action against Iraq.
• Canadians from middle income households (63%) are more likely than their counterparts in lower income households (54%) to say that Canada should only provide military support if the action is authorised by the United Nations. Canadians from upper income households (25%) are more likely than those from middle income households (17%) to say Canada should provide military assistance to the United States even if the military action is not sanctioned by the UN. Canadians from lower income households (24%) are more likely than their counterparts in upper income households (14%) to hold the view that Canada should not provide military assistance in either case.

In context, looking at previous tracking of this question, conducted in January and February of 2003, the views of Canadians have remained fairly consistent. Approximately six in ten hold the view that military assistance for a military action against Iraq should only be provided by Canada in the event that the action is authorise by the United Nations (Jan. 17th - 62%; Feb. 7th - 60%; Feb. 28th - 62%), while approximately one-fifth express the view that Canada should provide military assistance to the United States in an action against Iraq even if the UN does not authorise such military action (Jan. 17th - 15%; Feb. 7th - 18%; Feb. 28th - 18%). The position that Canada should not provide any military assistance for an action against Iraq has been steady at 18% in all of the previous polls. The level of Canadians who say they `don't know' has decreased with each poll (Jan. 17th - 6%; Feb. 7th - 4%; Feb. 28th - 3%).

To view the release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900