The McGuinty Government At Its One Year Anniversary

Toronto, ON - At the one-year anniversary of Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty's election (when his party successfully captured 47% of the decided vote) it appears his Liberal Party has started to recover in the polls after a steep decline following the government's first budget in May. The new numbers suggest that Premier McGuinty's governing party has received a post "National Health Summit" bounce while the once leading Progressive Conservatives have slipped following their recent leadership convention and the choosing of their new leader, John Tory.

While most conventions yield some kind of immediate upward movement for a major party in the polls, this hasn't materialized - perhaps because voters memories were awakened about the previous Harris government which they decisively voted out of power only a year ago. However, it is worthwhile noting that in the year following his election as the new PC leader (1990-1991) Mike Harris and the PCs sat at just 16% in the polls. Further, just prior to the 1995 campaign which would deliver the first of two back-to-back majority governments, the PCs were at 28% in the polls. By comparison, John Tory begins his tenure with 33% support for his party.

According to a new Ipsos-Reid/The Globe and Mail/CFTO/CFRB survey released today, if an election were held tomorrow in Ontario, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals would have the most support - with 37% of the decided vote (up 5 points from 32% in early September). Trailing behind the Ontario Liberals are the Progressive Conservatives and their newly minted leader John Tory - who garner 33% of the decided vote (down 2 points from the last sounding).

Meanwhile, the Ontario New Democratic Party attracts the support of 21% of the decided vote in Ontario (down 3 points) and the Green Party attracts 8% support (unchanged). [In order to form a majority government in Ontario a party normally would have to capture 42% to 45% of the decided vote.]

And when asked to consider the job that the provincial government of Premier Dalton McGuinty is doing governing Ontario, half (50%) of Ontarians say they approve (43% "somewhat approve", 7% "strongly approve").

Finally, 45% of Ontario residents say that the Ontario provincial government of Premier Dalton McGuinty has Ontario on the "right track"(39% "somewhat right track", 7% "strongly right track") - essentially unchanged from the 42% who said "right track" in the September 5th, 2004 poll - while 47% say it is on the "wrong track".

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/ CFTO/The Globe And Mail/CFRB poll conducted from September 21st to September 27th, 2004. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 758 adult residents of Ontario were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual population of Ontario according to the 2001 Census data.

Ontario's Liberals Bounce Into Lead With 37% Of Decided Vote (Up 5 Points), While The Provincial Conservatives (33%, Down 2 Points), The New Democratic Party (21%, Down 3 Points), And The Green Party (8%, Unchanged) Trail...

If a provincial election were held in Ontario tomorrow, Dalton McGuinty's Liberals would have the most support - with 37% of the decided vote (up 5 points from 32% in early September). Trailing behind the Ontario Liberals are the Progressive Conservatives and their newly minted leader John Tory - who garner 33% of the decided vote (down 2 points from the last sounding).

Meanwhile, the Ontario New Democratic Party attracts the support of 21% of the decided vote in Ontario (down 3 points), the Green Party attracts 8% of the decided vote (unchanged), and "other" parties attract 1% of the decided vote. Among all residents in Ontario, 5% are undecided/refused to say/or would not vote if a provincial election were held tomorrow.

• Support for the Liberals is highest in Northern Ontario (50%) and Eastern Ontario (43%).

• Support for the Progressive Conservatives is highest in The GTA Belt (41%), among Ontarians 35 years of age and older (39% vs. 24% among 18-34 year olds), and among men (38% vs. 29% among women).

• Support for the New Democratic Party is highest in Hamilton/Niagara (31%) and among younger Ontarians aged 18-34 (26% vs. 18% among Ontarians aged 35 and older).

Half (50%) Approve Of The Job McGuinty Is Doing Governing Ontario...

At the one year anniversary of Premier McGuinty and the Ontario Liberal Party's election to government, Ipsos-Reid fielded a benchmark question to Ontarians which asked: "Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the provincial government of Premier Dalton McGuinty is doing governing Ontario?"

In response to this question, half of Ontarians (50%) state that they approve of the job the McGuinty government is doing (43% "somewhat approve", 7% "strongly approve"), while the same proportion (47%) state that they disapprove (21% "somewhat disapprove", 26% "strongly disapprove"). The remaining 3% of Ontarians "don't know" if they approve or disapprove of the job Premier Dalton McGuinty and his government are doing.

• Approval of the Premier's performance is highest in Northern Ontario (62%), followed by Eastern Ontario (53%), The GTA (51%), Southwest Ontario (48%), and Hamilton/Niagara (40%).

• Disapproval of the Premier's performance is highest in Hamilton/Niagara (59%), followed by The GTA (47%) and Southwest Ontario (47%), Eastern Ontario (44%), and Northern Ontario (34%).

• Ontarians aged 18-54 are significantly more likely than those aged 55 and over to approve of the job the McGuinty government is doing governing Ontario (54% vs. 41%).

• Women are more likely than men to approve of the job the McGuinty government is doing governing Ontario (54% vs. 46%).

Just Under Half Of Ontarians (45%) Think The Government Of Premier McGuinty Has Ontario On The Right Track...

Overall, 45% of Ontarians would say that the Ontario provincial government of Premier Dalton McGuinty has Ontario on the "right track" (39% "somewhat right track", 7% "strongly right track") - essentially unchanged from 42% three weeks ago. And, 47% of Ontarians think this government has Ontario on the "wrong track" (21% "somewhat wrong track", 26% `strongly wrong track") - down from 52% at the last sounding. The remaining 7% of Ontarians "don't know" whether Premier McGuinty's government has Ontario on the right or wrong track.

• There are no regional demographic trends apparent when it comes to this question.

• Those Ontarians who live in urban areas are significantly more likely than those who live in rural areas to think that this government has Ontario on the "right track" (48% vs. 36%).

• Ontarians under the age of 55 are significantly more likely than Ontarians aged 55 and over to believe that this government has Ontario on the "right track" (49% vs. 38%).

Please open the attached PDF to view the factum and detailed tables.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900