NDP (44%) Hold Narrow Lead Over BC Liberals (41%)

Vancouver, BC - May 14th marks the two year anniversary of the stunning come from behind re-election of Christy Clark and the BC Liberals. A new Ipsos Reid poll, taken at the mid-point of the government's four year mandate, shows the two main parties essentially neck-and-neck in voter support. Despite a small lead for the NDP, it is the Liberals that may hold the advantage, as more British Columbians currently think the province is on the right track than the wrong track.

Voter Support

The NDP has a small, but statistically insignificant, lead of three points over the BC Liberals among decided voters. The NDP is currently at 44% support compared to 41% for the BC Liberals. This is essentially a reversal of the numbers from the last election that saw the BC Liberals edge out the NDP by a 44% to 40% margin in popular vote (i.e. NDP is up 4 points and BC Liberals are down 3 points). The Green Party is at 8% support (unchanged from 2013 election) and the BC Conservatives are at 7% support (up 2 points from 2013 election). These results exclude the 26% of British Columbians who are undecided or who express no party preference.

• By region, the two main parties are tied in Metro Vancouver (44% each) and the BC Liberals have a small lead in the Southern Interior/North (43% to 39%). The NDP has a huge lead among decided voters on Vancouver Island (50% to 28%).
• By gender, the NDP leads among women (46% to 38%) and the two parties are effectively tied among men (43% BC Lib vs. 42% NDP).
• By age, the pattern is similar to before the previous election, with the NDP leading by a wide margin among younger voters (46% to 36% among 18-34 year olds). The BC Liberals, however, lead among older voters (47% to 41% among 55+ years), a segment that is more likely to actually turn out to vote.

Mood of Province

The good news for the BC Liberals is that the overall mood in the province is more right direction than wrong direction. Currently, 45% of residents say that things in British Columbia today are heading in the right direction, while 37% say things are on the wrong track. Nearly two-in-ten (19%) are unsure.

• With the exception of Vancouver Island residents (38% right direction vs. 44% wrong track), right direction is higher than wrong track among all demographic segments.

Government Approval

Approval of the job the BC provincial government is doing is also solid for a government at the mid-point of its mandate. Currently, 43% of residents approve of the job the current provincial government is doing today (10% strongly, 33% somewhat). This is very close to the BC Liberals' voter support of 44% in the last election. A slightly larger proportion of residents (48%) disapproves of the provincial government's performance (19% strongly, 29% somewhat).

• Government approval differs most notably between men and women. Men are 8 points higher for approval than disapproval (50% vs 42%), while women are 16 points higher for disapproval than approval (53% vs 37%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 804 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid's national online household panel between May 7 and 12, 2015. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.9 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5130
[email protected]

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