Ontario Liberals (43%) Continue to Lead Conservatives (36%) by 7 Points, While NDP (15%) and Green Party (5%) Trail Behind

Toronto, ONTARIO (Thursday, February 27th, 2003) - Over the past year, Ontario Premier Ernie Eves has been coy with the voters in the province regarding an election call - suggesting a possible general election this coming spring, summer, fall and as late as the spring of 2004. In this current environment of election anticipation, Dalton McGuinty and the Ontario Liberal Party (43%, down two points since December) continue to lead Ernie Eves and the Progressive Conservatives (36%, down two points since December) by seven points, according to the latest Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll released today. Meanwhile, Howard Hampton and the NDP (15%, up one point) and the Ontario Green Party (5%, up two points) remain far behind the two front runners. Twelve percent of Ontarians are undecided or would not vote.

A majority (57%, up one point from October 2002) of Ontarians say that it is time for a new party to take over and run the province, while just over one in three (37%, unchanged) believes that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected. In context, in May 1999, during the last provincial election, just under half (46%) said the Tories should be re-elected, while 52% said it was time for a change.

As for how the government has performed regarding many key policy areas, a majority of Ontarians express approval of the government's actions in terms of "increasing business investment in Ontario" (63%), "creating jobs" (62%) and "dealing with crime" (60%), but a at least half express disapproval of the job the government has done regarding "spending taxpayers money wisely" (approve 34%, disapprove 63%), "managing the education system" (approve 36%, disapprove 60%), "preserving our system of healthcare" (approve 41%, disapprove 56%) and "protecting the environment" (approve 45%; disapprove 50%). Ontarians are split on their views regarding "providing honest and trustworthy government" (approve 49%, disapprove 47%) and "reducing taxes" (approve 47%, disapprove 47%).

In comparison to the results in February 1999, leading up to the last provincial election, approval has decreased or remained virtually the same for each area tested in both studies. The largest declines are recorded regarding "spending taxpayers money wisely" (-19 points), "reducing taxes" (-9 points), "managing the education system" (-8 points) and "increasing business investment in Ontario" (-7 points).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid/CFTO/CFRB/Globe and Mail poll conducted between February 13th and February 20th, 2003. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontario population according to the 2003 Census data.

Ontario Liberals (43%) Continue to Lead Conservatives (36%) by 7 Points, While NDP (15%) and Green Party (5%) Trail Behind

Dalton McGuinty and the Ontario Liberal Party (43%, down two points since December) continue to top the list among decided voters.

• The Liberals lead in all regions of the province, with the exception of Southwestern Ontario (Liberals 40%, Conservatives 40%) and in the `905' Belt (Conservatives 43%, Liberals 41%). Dalton McGuinty's party receive their strongest support among residents of Northern Ontario (53%), followed by the City of Toronto (46%), Eastern Ontario (44%), and Hamilton/Niagara (41%).
• Demographically, Liberal support is stronger among younger (52%) residents and women (46%).

Ernie Eves and the Progressive Conservatives (36%, down two points since December) continue to trail the leading Liberals by seven points.

• The Conservatives receive their highest level of support in the `905' Belt (43%), followed by Southwester Ontario (40%), Eastern Ontario (37%), Hamilton/Niagara (33%) and the City of Toronto (32%). They receive their lowest support level in Northern Ontario where they are in a statistical tie with the NDP (NDP 23%, Conservatives 20%).
• Tory support is stronger among older (44%) and middle aged (40%) Ontarians than among younger (26%) residents. Men (39% versus 33% of women) and those in upper income households (39% versus 28% in lower income households) are more likely to express support for the governing Conservatives.

Meanwhile, Howard Hampton and the NDP (15%, up one point) and the Ontario Green Party (5%, up two points) remain far behind the two front runners.

• Regionally, the NDP receive stronger support among voters in the North (23%) and in Hamilton/Niagara (21%), while their lowest level of support is found among residents of the Southwest (13%), Eastern Ontario (13%) and the `905' Belt (12%). The NDP also receive stronger support among decided voters in lower income households (22%) than in upper income households (11%).
• Support for the Green Party is strongest among younger (9%) residents.

To view the tracking graph of party support, please open the attached PDF version of the release.

Majority (57%) Believe Time for Another Party to Take Over, Just One in Three (37%) Say Tories Deserve Re-election

A majority (57%, up one point from October 2002) of Ontarians continue to indicate that it is time for a new party to take over and run the province, while just over one in three (37%, unchanged) believes that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.

• The call for another party to take over is strongest in Northern Ontario (69%) and lowest in the `905' Belt (53%).
• Women (62%) are more likely than men (52%) to indicate that it is time for another party to take over and run the province.
• Among decided voters, eight in ten (80%) decided Conservative voters say that the Tories deserve to be re-elected, while 17% say that it is time for a change. In comparison, nine in ten (92%) NDP supports say that it is time for a change, while 79% of Liberal supports concur.

To view the tracking graph for this question, please open the attached PDF version of the release.

Majority of Ontarians Approve Government Actions Regarding "Increasing Business Investment" (63%), "Creating Jobs" (62%), and "Dealing with Crime" (60%)

A majority of Ontarians express approval of the governments actions in terms of "increasing business investment in Ontario" (63%), "creating jobs" (62%) and "dealing with crime" (60%).

However, at least half of Ontarians express disapproval of the job the government has done regarding "spending taxpayers money wisely" (approve 34%, disapprove 63%), "managing the education system" (approve 36%, disapprove 60%), "preserving our system of healthcare" (approve 41%, disapprove 56%) and "protecting the environment" (approve 45%; disapprove 50%). Residents are split in their views regarding "providing honest and trustworthy government" (approve 49%, disapprove 47%) and "reducing taxes" (approve 47%, disapprove 47%).

In comparison to the results recorded in February 1999, leading up to the last provincial election, approval has decreased or remained virtually the same for each area tested in both studies. The largest declines are recorded regarding "spending taxpayers money wisely" (-19 points), "reducing taxes" (-9 points), "managing the education system" (-8 points) and "increasing business investment in Ontario" (-7 points).

The following tables include tracking results for December 1998 or February 1999 (depending on when asked previous to the 1999 Ontario election) and February 2003.

To view the tables, please open the attached PDF version of the release.

To view that release and detailed tables, please open the attached PDF files.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice-President
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900