Ontario Political Scene - June 2001

Healthcare And Education Dominate Public Agenda

Toronto, ON - As the Ontario legislature breaks for the summer and Premier Mike Harris prepares to appear at the Walkerton Inquiry, a new poll released today shows that the Harris Tories have dropped to 33% support by decided voters in Ontario. Since the last Ontario Ipsos-Reid poll in May 2001, the Tories have dropped 1% whereas the Liberals have picked up 3%. The Liberals continue to increase their support among Ontario decided voters -- now at 53% -- whereas the Ontario NDP remain mired at the bottom of the polls with only 12% support.

The poll was sponsored by the Globe and Mail, CFRB and CFTO.

A key indicator as to how much the public is sharpening its view of the Harris government is the fact that only 37% believe that the government "deserves to be re-elected", with a full majority (60%) indicating that "it is time for a change". The "deserve to be re-elected" versus "time for a change" numbers have remained static since May 2001.

These results come despite the government's budget which was tabled between the two polls.

As for the public agenda, healthcare and education continue to dominate. Asked which issues should receive the attention of Ontario's leaders, wherein respondents have multiple choices on an open-ended basis, 61% tag healthcare as the top issue and 53% name education.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted the between June 7th and June 14th, 2001. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Ontarians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within 177 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Ontario population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual adult Ontario population according to the 1996 Census data.

PCs Wallow At 33% Support As Liberals Climb To 53%, NDP Mired At 12%

Support for the Tories, among decided voters, has declined by a further 1 point from last month and now stands at 33% (versus 34% in May 2001). This is just 2 points off the lowest level of Tory support since prior to the 1995 election, which came in March of this year when it dipped to 31% among decided voters. On the other hand, support for the Liberals has climbed another 3 points from 50% in May 2001 to 53%. After no movement between March 2001 and May 2001, the NDP fell 2 points from 14% in May 2001 and continue to be mired in the low double figures at 12%.

• Among decided voters, support for the Tories increases with household income: less than $30k (24%), $30k to $60k (29%) and $60k+ (41%).
• Regionally, decided voters from the 905 area code (37%) are more likely than those from the 416 area code (27%) to support the PCs. Similarly, rural (44%) support among decided voters is higher than decided voters in urban communities (31%).
• The PCs continue to have stronger support among men, with four in ten (40%) of decided voter support, compared to just one-quarter decided voter support among women (27%).
• Older decided voters, those aged 55 and older (40%) and between 35 and 54 (37%), are more likely than those 18 to 34 (25%) to support the PCs.
• Conversely, the Liberals support among decided voters is primarily among the 18 to 34 age brackets (61%) and less strong among those 35 and up (48%).
• And, unlike the PCs, Liberals have stronger support among decided female voters (58%) than male voters (48%).

Only 37% Say Harris Tories Deserve To Be Re-Elected, 60% Say "Time For A Change"

Respondents were asked which of the following statements is closest to their opinion: "the Harris government has accomplished a lot for good in the province - they have stayed true to their word and deserve to be re-elected" or whether the Harris government has "done all it can do and it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province". Six in ten (60%) Ontarians say that it's "time for a change", while less than four in ten (37%) say that the Harris government "deserve to be re-elected". These figures are unchanged from last month's poll.

• Women (69%) are more likely than men (50%) to say it is "time for a change".
• Ontarians with a household income under $30k (71%) are more likely than those in the $30K to under $60k (56%) and $60k+ (56%) brackets to say that it is "time for a change".

Healthcare and Education Dominate Public Agenda

Healthcare (61% versus 59% in May 2001) has long dominated as the issue which Ontarians feel should receive the greatest attention from Ontario's leaders and continues to do so. Despite a marked increase of 14 points between March 2001 and May 2001 during the time of the month-long job action by support staff at the Toronto School Board, the percentage of Ontarians saying education is the most important issue has fallen back 5 points, from 58% in May 2001 to 53%. Nonetheless, Ontarians clearly continue to place healthcare (61%) and education (53%) at the top of the provincial agenda.

The environment (16% versus 17% in May 2001) remains the consistent third ranked issue among Ontarians, and continues to hold on to gains made since March 2001 when 14% of Ontarians said the environment should be the number one issue for the province's leaders. Poverty/the poor/welfare-homelessness (11%), taxes/tax reform/GST - general (10%) and jobs/unemployment (9%) also continue to be near the top of the agenda in the minds of Ontarians.

• Urban Ontarians (63%) are more likely than those in rural communities (54%) to say that healthcare should be the province's top priority. Urban residents (54%) are also more likely than rural residents (46%) to mention education as the top issue for the provincial agenda.
• Women tend to focus on the top two issues of healthcare and education, whereas men's concerns vary slightly more. Women (65%) are more likely than men (57%) to name healthcare as the top provincial issue; and are also more likely to name education (58% versus 48%).

For more information on this news release, please contact:

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Public Affairs
Ipsos-Reid
(416) 324-2900